Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisburg, PA
April 28, 2024 3:28 AM EDT (07:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:57 AM |
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 134 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Overnight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers.
Sun - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming e. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 134 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a warm front will lift through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.
a warm front will lift through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 280548 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
-Occasional showers possible overnight with patchy fog; scattered thunderstorms Sunday, especially across northern PA -Temperatures rise above average Sunday and warmth persists all week with highs in the 70s and 80s; near-record warmth Monday -Cold fronts Tuesday and Friday-Saturday bring rain & storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Conditions across central PA continue to feature a low overcast and spotty light rain and drizzle. Winds are generally light and variable which will do little to scour out the murk until we can get the southwest winds to chisel their way to the surface...later tonight.
Previous Discussion...
A warm front will drift eastward across PA tonight and overrun the relatively cool air in the valleys. Only widely scattered light showers are expected overnight, but fog may develop in locations that received rain this afternoon/evening. Overcast skies will keep temperatures nearly steady overnight and, if anything, temperatures will creep up a few degrees across the west tonight as the warm front moves in. Winds will shift to come out of the southwest by Sunday morning, paving the way for plentiful warm advection and a very mild afternoon on Sunday.
Surface ridging builds in on Sunday with brightening skies in the south and lingering clouds in the north. The ridge axis will cross Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon, helping focus a ring of fire pattern of showers and thunderstorms in New York and perhaps the northern tier of our forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing Sunday morning and will continue into the afternoon and evening. Although a majority of hi-res guidance keeps showers along and north of I-80, efficient moisture and temperature advection farther south will support showers and thunderstorms all the way to the Mason-Dixon Line. Have added a slight chance of storms there centered on peak heating between 4 and 6PM, with higher probabilities farther north.
With Pennsylvania fully in the warm sector southwest of the warm front on Sunday, temperatures will soar into the 70s and 80s.
Clouds and showers/storms will be more plentiful in the north, where highs in the low 70s may be a little too high if anything.
Farther south, highs in the mid 80s are well within reason barring any significant showers/storms making it toward the I-76 corridor (unlikely at this time). Unlike the previous mild days we've had so far this spring, this warm stretch will be accompanied by a noticeable uptick in humidity. Dewpoints will approach 60F in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which is usually the point at which you start to notice the humidity.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A very mild night is in store for Sunday night thanks to the higher dewpoints that will be in place. Mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling such that temperatures fall to near or just above the dewpoint temperatures. In locations that receive rainfall Sunday afternoon, patchy fog is likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Based on the current forecast, locations north of I-80 are most likely to have fog.
Lows on Monday morning will be in the 55 to 60F range, which is +10 to +15 compared to average.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week as the ridge of high pressure reaches its maximum northward extent Monday afternoon.
Surface high pressure to the south of PA will result in ample sunshine and west-southwest flow and a true summer day. Recent model guidance continues to suggest MaxTs in the 80s nearly everywhere and an outside chance at 90 near the Mason-Dixon line. Some afternoon convection across mainly northern PA does appear plausible given embedded shortwaves within the ridge axis and have upped PoPs compared to previous forecast cycles mainly for areas north of I-80. If convection manages to occur, MaxTs across northern PA could be limited to the upper 70s but will still be well above seasonable averages.
Monday night will be similar to Sunday night with temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature (upper 50s to low 60s).
Some increasing high clouds will begin streaming in overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Light rain showers could begin affecting far northwest PA by daybreak, but dry conditions are likely for the rest of the area.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday as low pressure from the Central Plains moves northwest of the area and brings a weak sfc cold front across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours. Guidance has started to indicate a secondary area of sfc low pressure forming along the DelMarVa later in the afternoon/evening hours before quickly racing off to the northeast. This feature, noted in both GFS/ECMWF guidance has lead to a slight bump up in PoPs Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. The rest of Wednesday trends drier as upper-level ridging takes hold; however, some convective thunderstorms/showers could occur if enough sfc heating takes place. There is low confidence at this time, so have capped PoPs at a SChc (15-25%) in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe.
Diverging solutions emerge in deterministic model guidance Thursday and into Friday after the upper-level ridge moves eastward. The European suite of model guidance suggests a stronger ridge axis will provide another stretch of dry and above-average temperatures Thursday and into Friday while the North American suite suggests a weaker ridge axis allowing for shortwaves to bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the end of the week. By the weekend, there is a bit more agreement in upper troughing and an accompanying surface low pressure system affecting the northeastern US. This would favor rainy conditions and a shift back to seasonable temperatures in its wake.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low stratus is being observed across almost all of Central Pennsylvania, with the exception of JST where VFR conditions will continue through 06Z Monday. BFD is on the edge of the cloud deck, but there is considerable disagreement in the guidance as to what happens there over the next few hours. The SREF shows only a 25% probability of MVFR or lower ceilings by 09Z while the GFS LAMP shows LIFR ceilings remaining in place through the rest of the night and into part of the morning.
Taking this into account along with model soundings, went with MVFR ceilings at BFD by 07Z. This may have to be amended though.
Central airfields (AOO/UNV/IPT) will see IFR/LIFR ceilings persist into the morning before the clouds begin to break up after 12Z. Some fog also appears likely to develop for these sites over the next few hours and visibility restrictions are expected. Across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, ceilings likely remain MVFR though a brief dip to IFR is not out of the question for MDT and LNS.
Another concern for tonight is LLWS across the northwest associated with a southwesterly LLJ. The threat will continue until winds begin to pick up after sunrise.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon across the northern tier and may lead to brief visibility restrictions.
The airfields most likely to be impacted by any storms will be BFD and IPT, though its possible that a few showers or storms could reach UNV as well. Any places that see rain in the afternoon will likely see fog develop Sunday night and into Monday morning.
Outlook...
Mon...No sig wx expected.
Tue...Isold PM tsra impacts possible.
Wed...Early AM low cigs possible N Mtns.
Thu...No sig wx expected.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
-Occasional showers possible overnight with patchy fog; scattered thunderstorms Sunday, especially across northern PA -Temperatures rise above average Sunday and warmth persists all week with highs in the 70s and 80s; near-record warmth Monday -Cold fronts Tuesday and Friday-Saturday bring rain & storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Conditions across central PA continue to feature a low overcast and spotty light rain and drizzle. Winds are generally light and variable which will do little to scour out the murk until we can get the southwest winds to chisel their way to the surface...later tonight.
Previous Discussion...
A warm front will drift eastward across PA tonight and overrun the relatively cool air in the valleys. Only widely scattered light showers are expected overnight, but fog may develop in locations that received rain this afternoon/evening. Overcast skies will keep temperatures nearly steady overnight and, if anything, temperatures will creep up a few degrees across the west tonight as the warm front moves in. Winds will shift to come out of the southwest by Sunday morning, paving the way for plentiful warm advection and a very mild afternoon on Sunday.
Surface ridging builds in on Sunday with brightening skies in the south and lingering clouds in the north. The ridge axis will cross Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon, helping focus a ring of fire pattern of showers and thunderstorms in New York and perhaps the northern tier of our forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing Sunday morning and will continue into the afternoon and evening. Although a majority of hi-res guidance keeps showers along and north of I-80, efficient moisture and temperature advection farther south will support showers and thunderstorms all the way to the Mason-Dixon Line. Have added a slight chance of storms there centered on peak heating between 4 and 6PM, with higher probabilities farther north.
With Pennsylvania fully in the warm sector southwest of the warm front on Sunday, temperatures will soar into the 70s and 80s.
Clouds and showers/storms will be more plentiful in the north, where highs in the low 70s may be a little too high if anything.
Farther south, highs in the mid 80s are well within reason barring any significant showers/storms making it toward the I-76 corridor (unlikely at this time). Unlike the previous mild days we've had so far this spring, this warm stretch will be accompanied by a noticeable uptick in humidity. Dewpoints will approach 60F in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which is usually the point at which you start to notice the humidity.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A very mild night is in store for Sunday night thanks to the higher dewpoints that will be in place. Mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling such that temperatures fall to near or just above the dewpoint temperatures. In locations that receive rainfall Sunday afternoon, patchy fog is likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Based on the current forecast, locations north of I-80 are most likely to have fog.
Lows on Monday morning will be in the 55 to 60F range, which is +10 to +15 compared to average.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week as the ridge of high pressure reaches its maximum northward extent Monday afternoon.
Surface high pressure to the south of PA will result in ample sunshine and west-southwest flow and a true summer day. Recent model guidance continues to suggest MaxTs in the 80s nearly everywhere and an outside chance at 90 near the Mason-Dixon line. Some afternoon convection across mainly northern PA does appear plausible given embedded shortwaves within the ridge axis and have upped PoPs compared to previous forecast cycles mainly for areas north of I-80. If convection manages to occur, MaxTs across northern PA could be limited to the upper 70s but will still be well above seasonable averages.
Monday night will be similar to Sunday night with temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature (upper 50s to low 60s).
Some increasing high clouds will begin streaming in overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Light rain showers could begin affecting far northwest PA by daybreak, but dry conditions are likely for the rest of the area.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday as low pressure from the Central Plains moves northwest of the area and brings a weak sfc cold front across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours. Guidance has started to indicate a secondary area of sfc low pressure forming along the DelMarVa later in the afternoon/evening hours before quickly racing off to the northeast. This feature, noted in both GFS/ECMWF guidance has lead to a slight bump up in PoPs Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. The rest of Wednesday trends drier as upper-level ridging takes hold; however, some convective thunderstorms/showers could occur if enough sfc heating takes place. There is low confidence at this time, so have capped PoPs at a SChc (15-25%) in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe.
Diverging solutions emerge in deterministic model guidance Thursday and into Friday after the upper-level ridge moves eastward. The European suite of model guidance suggests a stronger ridge axis will provide another stretch of dry and above-average temperatures Thursday and into Friday while the North American suite suggests a weaker ridge axis allowing for shortwaves to bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the end of the week. By the weekend, there is a bit more agreement in upper troughing and an accompanying surface low pressure system affecting the northeastern US. This would favor rainy conditions and a shift back to seasonable temperatures in its wake.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low stratus is being observed across almost all of Central Pennsylvania, with the exception of JST where VFR conditions will continue through 06Z Monday. BFD is on the edge of the cloud deck, but there is considerable disagreement in the guidance as to what happens there over the next few hours. The SREF shows only a 25% probability of MVFR or lower ceilings by 09Z while the GFS LAMP shows LIFR ceilings remaining in place through the rest of the night and into part of the morning.
Taking this into account along with model soundings, went with MVFR ceilings at BFD by 07Z. This may have to be amended though.
Central airfields (AOO/UNV/IPT) will see IFR/LIFR ceilings persist into the morning before the clouds begin to break up after 12Z. Some fog also appears likely to develop for these sites over the next few hours and visibility restrictions are expected. Across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, ceilings likely remain MVFR though a brief dip to IFR is not out of the question for MDT and LNS.
Another concern for tonight is LLWS across the northwest associated with a southwesterly LLJ. The threat will continue until winds begin to pick up after sunrise.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon across the northern tier and may lead to brief visibility restrictions.
The airfields most likely to be impacted by any storms will be BFD and IPT, though its possible that a few showers or storms could reach UNV as well. Any places that see rain in the afternoon will likely see fog develop Sunday night and into Monday morning.
Outlook...
Mon...No sig wx expected.
Tue...Isold PM tsra impacts possible.
Wed...Early AM low cigs possible N Mtns.
Thu...No sig wx expected.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 72 mi | 58 min | S 1.9G | 57°F | 60°F | |||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 76 mi | 58 min | SE 2.9G | 56°F | ||||
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 77 mi | 58 min | ESE 1.9G | 53°F | 60°F | 30.26 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCXY CAPITAL CITY,PA | 5 sm | 32 min | E 04 | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 30.23 |
| KMDT HARRISBURG INTL,PA | 9 sm | 32 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 30.23 |
Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 02:14 AM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT 3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT 0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 02:14 AM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT 3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT 0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT 1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT 1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
State College, PA,
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