Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:52PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:58 AM EDT (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:25AMMoonset 8:43PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will drop to the south of the waters tonight. High pressure centered over new england will extend south into the area for Thursday through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisburg, PA
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location: 40.28, -76.89     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 240344
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1144 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A large area of high pressure will build southeast across the
region. An upper level disturbance will move across the central
and northwest mountains Thursday afternoon. Sprawling high
pressure will then dominate the weather into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Cyclonic flow aloft and a weak secondary cold front are
responsible for some light rain showers currently along and just
north of the ny border. The hrrr suggests one or two of these
showers could survive the trek into the northern mountains, but
the better bet is for them to continue to weaken.

Cold air in the form of 850mb temps as low as 6c (1-2sigma
below normal) will slide across the great lakes and settle in
for the next several days. Boundary layer decoupling will lead
to calm air tonight which will help to maximize radiational
cooling and help fog to form in the valleys, but some cloud
cover over the west may keep the fog in check. Mins will range
from the chilly mid 40s over the north to around 60 across the
south.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
A potent albeit moisture starved shortwave trough will approach
the the area Thursday and Thursday evening. Some erosion in
stability is made to occur as the cold pocket aloft moves our
way during the afternoon. SPC does not have us outlooked for
thunder, but with such cold air aloft and the time of year, some
low topped storms would not surprise me. The chances are too
low to include at this time. The best chance of showers look to
be over the higher elevations of the west and north.

High temps Thursday will be about 5-6 deg lower than this
afternoon's (wed) values, or in the m60s nw-m70s SE pa.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
An extended period of refreshingly cool, pleasant and dry
weather will continue through the upcoming weekend as high
pressure remains in control of the weather pattern over the
northeast quarter of the conus. It will feel more like early
fall than late summer. A few spots in north-central pa could
see morning lows dip into the upper 30s over the weekend.

Global models suggest isolated, terrain-induced convection may
be possible within return flow along the spine of the central
appalachians later in the period. However, ensemble means favor
a continuation of the mainly dry and seasonable pattern through
the end of august, as upper level ridging building into the
western u.S. Supports troughing downstream over the central and
eastern states.

Interesting to note that the both the 12z GFS 00z ECMWF bring
the remnants of harvey toward the area by early september.

After what appears to be a mainly dry end to the month of
august in central pa, this could be something to monitor down
the road.

Aviation 04z Thursday through Monday
A ridge of high pressure over the region will ensureVFR
conditions and light wind late this evening. Some patchy dense
valley fog is likely late tonight, mainly in the valleys of
northwest pa. Based on latest sref, downscaled NAM and lamp
guidance, believe a period of ifr lifr conditions is likely late
tonight into early Thursday morning at kbfd, with a brief
period of fog also possible at kunv kaoo kipt around dawn.

Elsewhere, believe MOS guidance is overly pessimistic at kjst,
where radiation fog is rare due to its ridgetop location.

Based on climatology and latest model guidance, believe most of
the fog across northwest pa will burn off by around 14z. There
is high confidence in widespreadVFR conditions the rest of
Thursday. However, can't rule out a brief MVFR reduction from a
passing shower in the afternoon.

Outlook
Fri-mon... Patchy am fog possible, mainly northern pa.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... La corte
short term... La corte lambert
long term... Steinbugl
aviation... Fitzgerald


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 72 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 6 76°F 83°F1012.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 76 mi40 min N 6 G 7 76°F 1012.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 77 mi46 min S 1 G 1.9 66°F 84°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA4 mi62 minWNW 410.00 miFair66°F55°F68%1013 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA8 mi62 minNNW 410.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1012.7 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA20 mi60 minNW 410.00 miFair67°F54°F64%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from CXY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW7W3W5W4W4NW4N7N6N9NW7N7W5N8NW12W11
G16
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1 day agoE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E3S4S6SW11SW8
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2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3E4E3E4E4E444CalmCalmS4SW7SW4S4S5S4E7SE7SE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.232.72.21.81.41.10.911.62.43.13.43.43.12.62.11.61.20.90.81.11.8

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.21.91.510.60.30.30.61.11.72.22.42.42.11.71.20.80.40.30.40.81.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.