Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:51PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:37 PM EST (21:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:29PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 336 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming w. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 336 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall out well to our south through Friday night while high pressure builds to the north. The boundary will return north as a warm front Saturday through Sunday while stronger low pressure passes through the great lakes. A cold front will pass through the waters late Sunday and high pressure will return for early next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for the waters Sunday and Monday, and a gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters late Sunday through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisburg, PA
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location: 40.28, -76.89     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 211942
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
242 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds east into pennsylvania from the issippi
valley over the next two days. A strengthening storm will track
north through the great lakes this weekend, with a trailing cold
front coming through pennsylvania Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A drier westerly flow has brought brightening skies and breezy
but milder conditions to the region this afternoon. Melting and
evaporating occurring as a result. Just a few stratocu evident
in the visible imagery over the laurel highlands but most areas
enjoying nearly full sunshine with temperatures ranging mostly
through the 40s, except for upper 30s far north.

Sfc high pressure will build over lower mi tonight with dry cool
conditions prevailing over pa, while a flat wave of lower
pressure pushes moisture through the virginias and to the mid
atlantic coastline by 12z fri. Expect a fair amount of mid and
high cloud to stream overhead, especially over the southern
tier. Mins will be seasonable with lows ranging from near 20f
northwest to the upper 20s southeast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Fair weather continues Friday as high pressure and associated
low pwat air mass build over the region. Still a fair amount of
cirrus streams across the region along axis of 120kt jet
separating anomalous upper ridge over the caribbean and a deep
trough over the western conus. Thickest clouds will again be
over the south as flat wave exits off the mid atlantic coast.

A cooler afternoon expected, as mixing with be shallower
beneath surface high, and am remaining close to superblend nbm
highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Models typically do a better job with tracking and placing high
pressure systems and this is again the case as a signifcant ridge
will be negatively tilted across the great lakes and will continue
to be pushed to the north east this weekend.

A small but strong upper level low will undercut this ridge,
driving a sfc system through the mid atlantic region this weekend.

As has been the trend, warm air advection will track ahead of the
system. 850 mb temperatures by 00z Sunday will be in the 3-6c range.

With daytime temperatures looking to be in the upper 30s to low 40s,
and dewpoints in the low 30s, there seems to be less of a chance for
fzra however there could be localized pockets mainly over the higher
terrain of the appalachians. The trend aloft and and the surface
continues to be warm, so rain will be dominate precipitation type.

Focus then shifts toward the potential of strong winds Sunday
pm, as trailing cold front sweeps through the area, allowing
strong winds associated with grt lks storm to mix to ground
level. This scenario of a powerful low passing north of pa fits
the pattern we see with our strongest winds across central pa
and a quick look at model 850mb winds suggest >50kt gusts are
possible. Have introduced the possibility of strong winds in the
hwo.

As the temperatures continue to warm, expect a likely surge to
springlike readings Sunday. The shallow cool air should mix out then
there should be a return to seasonal readings for next week. Med
range guidance points toward dry weather early next week, as high
pressure builds across the region. However, model spread and
forecast uncertainty ramps up by the middle of next week concerning
the track, timing and strength of a fast moving shortwave
approaching from the midwest. Given when the instability is for the
storm next midweek, have changed precip type to mostly snow.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr will prevail through Saturday with a drier and breezy west
northwest wind (270-300 degrees gusting 20-25kts) throughout the
airspace slackening tonight. Isold MVFR CIGS possible across
the northwest airspace tonight early Friday, otherwiseVFR
expected to hold through Friday.

Outlook...

fri... MVFR CIGS NW psbl early, otherwiseVFR.

Sat... Trending MVFR to ifr with wintry mix to rain.

Sun-mon... Windy with sfc gusts 30-40kts from 250-300 degrees.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Devoir
near term... Devoir
short term... Devoir
long term... Fitzgerald ceru
aviation... Devoir steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 72 mi62 min N 5.1 G 9.9 57°F 38°F1016.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 76 mi50 min NW 8.9 G 11 55°F 1017.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 77 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 6 53°F 39°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA4 mi42 minW 710.00 miFair52°F27°F38%1017 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA8 mi42 minWNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F30°F46%1016.8 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA20 mi42 minW 10 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds50°F22°F33%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CXY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE6E6E8SE8E4E3E3E3CalmCalmW3CalmW3NW4W6W6W7W5W4W4W7W4W7
1 day agoN8NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE4E4E4SE4E6E5SE9E8SE11E8SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:41 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:08 PM EST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.31.81.30.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.10.51.31.921.81.40.80.2-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.6011.9

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:23 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:01 AM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.610.4-0.1-0.3-0.30.10.81.41.92.121.61.20.60.2-0.1-0.20.20.81.522.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.