Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
English, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:33PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 9:59 PM EDT (01:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:37AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 721 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the daytime.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon, then becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 721 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will continue to build eastward and become nearly stationary off the mid atlantic coast, while a warm front passes well to the north. The offshore high will dominate from Friday into Saturday before a cold front moves through on Sunday. The front may then become stationary just to the south early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near English , NJ
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location: 40.3, -74.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 290003
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
803 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
A broad area of high pressure will slowly drift eastward into the
western atlantic through the end of the week. A cold front will
gradually sag southeastward from the great lakes and southeast
canada this weekend to the ohio valley and southern new england
early next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
No big changes needed. The daytime CU has dissipated and the
only cloud cover tonight will be the ci cs shield overhead.

It looks like radiational cooling will be rather efficient over
night. Therefore, stayed close to the previous forecast which
is slightly below the NAM and GFS mos guidance especially north
and west of the fall line and over the pine barrens.

A few adjustments to hourly temps in the next few hours (mostly
upward).

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
With the surface high to our east, and increasing pressure gradient
in response to the surface low over the great lakes region moving
further east, expect low level southwesterly flow to develop and
increase. In response, we should see a considerable warming trend
tomorrow, with highs about 5 to 10 degrees higher than today.

Also, late in the day as the low continues to slowly propagate
eastward, we could see isolated showers and thunderstorms generally
from the lehigh valley to NW nj and further northwest. I have kept
it at a slight chance though as the low should stay well to our west
through this time and the upper level jet will be too far north to
provide much in the way of lift across our region.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
A long duration of hot and humid weather is in store for the
region, with chances of precipitation increasing this weekend
with occasional chances continuing next week.

Operational models are in reasonably good agreement with the
synoptic-scale details through the long-term period. Smaller-
scale vorticity maxima within the southwest upper-level flow
developing this weekend and large-scale trough passage next week
have typical strength timing differences among the model suite,
with no obvious model biases noted. As such, pretty much loaded
the grids with a model blend through the long term with minor
modifications for better office collaboration, somewhat lower
weighting for the 12z cmc late in the period owing to its
increased discrepancies from consensus, and dampened pops Monday
onward owing to larger uncertainties associated with vort max
timing.

At 00z Friday, a potent vort MAX will be moving through southern
ontario and the adjacent great lakes with downstream ridge
amplification fully commenced in the northeast. After a rapid
warmup on Thursday, this will be followed by a rapid increase in
surface dew points on Friday and Saturday. With highs near or
above 90 in the urban corridor, this leads to a rather
uncomfortable period for the area. I was a little hesitant to
increase dew points to the values of mav mex mos, which have
been a little on the high side in similar patterns so far this
spring early summer. As such, I dropped heat indices somewhat
both Friday and Saturday, especially since model soundings show
well-mixed soundings during the afternoons. With a rather deep
mixed layer, I strongly suspect MOS is overdoing surface
moisture, especially on Friday. Much stronger weighting was
given to met guidance Friday and manual adjustment Saturday
given NAM bufkit soundings.

Regarding the aforementioned vort max, as it slides eastward
into far northern new england, an upstream vort MAX will move
into the upper midwest by Friday afternoon. This will be the
start of prolonged southwesterly midlevel flow in the eastern
u.S. Several perturbations in the faster flow will progress
northeastward from the central u.S. To the northeast for the
following several days. With a strong bermuda high remaining
influential into the southeastern u.S., this will force the
associated vorticity maxima to elongate in a positively-tilted
orientation as they progress northeastward. Upstream
perturbations will then amplify the vorticity with decreasing
latitude (farther southward) with time.

The result of this above-surface pattern is a frontal boundary
moving at a snail's pace southeastward as midlevel flow becomes
parallel to its orientation, broadly from new england to the
great lakes and southwestward this weekend. Several embedded
surface waves of lower pressure will progress northeastward
along this boundary, likely enhancing convection in surrounding
regions. Precipitation chances increase gradually Friday through
Sunday in this regime from northwest to southeast. Models are
in reasonably good consensus showing a particularly strong wave
moving through the mid-atlantic region Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning.

This brings about the most challenging aspects of the weekend
forecast. The first is highs on Saturday, with
models statistical guidance trending noticeably downward with
temperatures on Saturday as potential sky cover precipitation
influences may inhibit maximum warming. The second is figuring
out timing location of highest pops. Decided to keep a
conservative approach for this forecast, both by lowering max
temperatures slightly on Saturday and by capping pops to chance
Saturday through Sunday. Sunday may end up being fairly dry if
the vort MAX projected to move through Saturday night is
followed by fairly strong transient ridging (as depicted to
some degree by the GFS and ecmwf). The 12z cmc, meanwhile,
brings a quick-to-follow perturbation through the area on
Sunday, generating more convection in much of the region. With
so much uncertainty with these small-scale details, it is
formidably challenging to get too specific with pops at this
point. There are decent indications of a push of drier surface
air moving into the area by Sunday night as the cold front makes
its strongest progress into the region.

For early next week, models are showing a somewhat drier day
Monday upstream of the perturbations moving through during the
weekend followed by a potent trough moving through the northeast
Tuesday and Wednesday. Kept slight chance to chance pops for
much of the area (highest north) Tuesday and Wednesday, but kept
Monday mostly dry given the reasonably strong consensus at this
point. However, with the front failing to make progress
southeastward through the region, temperatures will remain warm,
and humidity will remain high.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MostlyVFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. After 18z
Thursday, there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeastern pa including krdg and kabe. However,
coverage is too limited to include in the tafs at this time.

Winds will become light from the southwest tonight. By 12z tomorrow
though, we should see winds across the region shift to south-southwesterly
and increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts above 20kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR conditions expected. Slight
chance of storms northwest of kphl, which may locally lower
cigs vsbys. Southwest winds 5 to 15 kts (stronger during the
day), with gusts to 20 kts possible.

Friday night through Sunday... MostlyVFR, but chances of storms
through the period, especially Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. Locally lower visibility and ceilings likely. West to
southwest winds 5 to 15 kts, with gusts to 20 kts possible
during the day (more so Saturday).

Sunday night and Monday... A potential dry period, with mostly
vfr conditions. Light winds, primarily westerly.

Marine
Winds and seas will begin to build mid day Thursday. Small craft
advisory conditions are expected to develop by mid afternoon along
the atlantic coastal waters.

On the delaware bay, it is unlikely that winds will get above 25 kt
through the day time hours. However, southerly wind gusts above 20kt
are possible on the lower bay.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... Advisory conditions likely, with
gusts near gale force possible Thursday evening.

Friday night through Sunday... Advisory conditions may linger
Friday night, with generally sub-advisory conditions thereafter.

However, a period of stronger winds may occur Saturday night as
well. Frequent chances of storms through the period.

Sunday night and Monday... A drier period may occur. Sub-advisory
conditions are expected.

Rip currents...

the outlook for tomorrow is that the low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will continue into at least tomorrow morning.

Depending on how quickly the winds increase tomorrow afternoon, the
risk may increase to moderate by late in the day, but that remains
uncertain at this time.

Low risk does not mean no risk and it is always advised for ultimate
safety, swim in the presence of the lifeguards. They have the
flotation devices that can more easily save a life.

Where the surf zone waters are steeper, there may be fewer rip
currents, but there, the danger of wave related injury increases.

An ongoing de 6+ year study shows the 10-20 year and 40-60 year
old age groups most vulnerable. The 10-20 year old surf zone
injuries are associated with body boarding and body surfing,
while the 40-60 year old waders are knocked down by wave action,
especially with back turned to the ocean.

Males are statistically far more likely to be injured or lose
their life in the surf zone but as june 15 reminds us... Anyone
is vulnerable.

Climate
Monthly avg temp for june
phl projecting 74.5 or 1.2 degrees above the average of 73.3
abe projecting 70.8 or 1.7 degrees above the average of 69.1
seven of our eight long term climate sites will average above
normal probably from about 8 tenths of a degree for ttn ilg to
as much as 2 degrees for ged.

Mount pocono is our only below normal average and projecting
1-1.5 below).

These projections are based on our 330 am forecast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 6 am edt Friday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm Thursday to midnight edt
Thursday night for anz431.

Synopsis... Cms 99
near term... Johnson o'hara
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms johnson o'hara
marine... Cms johnson
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi42 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 73°F1018.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 23 mi42 min SSW 5.1 G 6 72°F 76°F1020.2 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi42 min SW 7 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi42 min 75°F 71°F1019.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi42 min SW 11 G 12 1019.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 30 mi84 min 75°F 77°F1019.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi42 min 74°F 69°F1018.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi70 min SSW 18 G 19 69°F 69°F3 ft1019 hPa (+0.0)60°F
BDSP1 44 mi42 min 75°F 1020 hPa
44091 48 mi30 min 67°F3 ft
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi42 min 75°F 77°F1019.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi42 min S 6 G 8.9 70°F 66°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi64 minSSE 510.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1020.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi2 hrsSSW 410.00 miFair72°F53°F52%1019.5 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ23 mi67 minWSW 410.00 miFair73°F51°F46%1019 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ23 mi62 minSW 510.00 miFair66°F55°F67%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmSW5W5W6NW7W4W4W4W5NW11NW9NW8NW7W7
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1 day agoSW4S4S4S4S3------------NW3W3CalmN5W8NW7SE84SE5E6E4SE4NW4
2 days agoS5SW5W6W5NW6NW5----------------------SE11SE9SE10SE6S6S5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:27 AM EDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:10 PM EDT     6.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.76.75.84.42.81.30.1-0.4-01.22.84.35.56.15.84.83.42.110.30.51.63.14.5

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Sayreville
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.664.83.31.80.5-0.3-0.30.623.64.95.85.85.13.82.51.30.50.41.12.43.85.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.