Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:23 AM   Moonset 5:15 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1227 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers early, then showers late. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1227 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the new england coast weakens locally as it shifts farther offshore through this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary returns as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.

FXUS61 KPHI 051844 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 244 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
An east to southeasterly flow off the Atlantic ocean will result in cloudy weather through Monday morning with areas of light rain and drizzle. A cold front will work its way through the region late Monday and Monday night. This boundary will become stationary over the area through the mid- week period. A series of disturbances will track along this boundary through the middle of the week. A stronger area of low pressure moves through the region on Thursday, followed by a cold front on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak warm advection overruning a very moist and cool marine layer will keep low clouds and light rain or drizzle for most locations through Monday morning. As a shortwave moves over the region this afternoon, showers along and west of the Delaware Valley will spread eastward into coastal areas.

The bulk of the rain moves out early this evening, but another weak trough approaching tonight will reinforce lift and generate additional scattered showers. Some of the model soundings show some elevated instability, so can't rule out some lightning strikes late tonight, mainly within Delmarva and the southern half of New Jersey. Some patchy fog is possible with a moist boundary layer, greatest chance mainly north and west of the Philadelphia metro. It will be a mild night, with lows in the mid to upper 50s/low 60s.

Winds become southerly Monday morning ahead of a cold front that will usher an increasingly humid airmass into the region with surface dewpoints rising into the 60s. Any fog in the morning will lift and dissipate by midday. The cold front passes through the region Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Some shortwave energy passing through the region will help kick off widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southern portions of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Periods of unsettled weather are expected early in the week as a cold front will move to the south of the area on Monday night, then stall to our south into Tuesday, then begin lifting back north Tuesday night. Showers will be possible on Monday night near the front as it sags southward, but Tuesday may end up being dry for many areas since we will be north of the front.
There will still be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms for the southern third to half of the area later in the day as they will be closer to the front. On Tuesday night, the area with the greatest chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms shifts northward as the front lifts back to the north and short wave/vorticity impulse moves across the northern areas.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather continues for the second half of the week. On Wednesday, an area of low pressure will move our of the Great Lakes and into the northeastern states, eventually bringing a cold front to the area. After a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the day Wednesday across the northern areas, much of the day into the evening hours could be mostly dry for many areas as the front stalls near the area. However, this dry weather will not last as showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase later Wednesday night into Thursday and continue through Friday as multiple waves of low pressure move along the stalled boundary across the Mid- Atlantic region, before the final low and cold front move offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday into Friday night.
Although the forecast has a chance of showers for next weekend, drier weather may return as high pressure could begin to affect the area.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Ceilings at or below 1Kft this afternoon with ceilings 3-4Kft across southern Delaware and southeastern New Jersey. Highest concentration of showers should move through the Lehigh Valley and Delaware Valley.

Tonight...Low clouds and areas of fog. South to southeast wind around 5 kt.

Monday...Cloud deck at or below 1Kft in the morning with areas of fog. Ceilings rise to 1-2Kft by midday. winds become southwesterly around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night...Areas of sub-VFR conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Areas of VFR to MVFR conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday night...Areas of IFR developing with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Conditions may improve to VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday-Friday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers and possible thunderstorms.

MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Monday as seas will be 2 to 4 feet with winds from the east to southeast at 10 to 20 kt.
Periods of showers expected, with a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms early Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday night-Friday...Conditions likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for much of the period. Winds may gust around 20 knots at times, and seas may approach 5 feet Thursday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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