Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 4:52 AM   Moonset 7:27 PM

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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 620 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers with Thunderstorms likely this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - West winds around 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 080008 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 808 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through Thursday amidst a continued warm and humid pattern. Afterwards, cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected, though shower chances can not be ruled out through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Showers are starting to spring up west and south of the CWA and are expected to fill in relatively quickly with daytime heating creating a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere. They will quickly become deeper convection with thunderstorms. If discrete cells maintain a decent margin from surrounding upstream storms, shear and instability will act to promote supercell activity. Right turning cells will also be a favored track given the southerly inflow of moisture and right-handed curved hodographs.

Models remain in a various state of how these storms evolve, but they should end nw-se overnight. A few depict a brief linear evolution in the southern/southeast forecast area with training, but most have pushed the precip into the south by 09Z and out of the CWA by 12Z.

Overnight lows will drop from near 60 in the northwest to near 65 in northern KY and southern OH.

SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Deeply uniform southwest flow develops ahead of a l/w trough north of the region with a wsw-ene orientation. Later in the day, s/w energy will cross and mark the beginning of the next round of showers and storms. Indications are that these storms may be knocking on southwest CWA towards 00Z but the consensus is to hold off until after this time but rapidly ramp up the precip. Overnight, with a continual flow of moisture leading to pwats >1.5". If the storms train in a nw-se orientation as some markers are favoring, flooding will become the primary threat.

The favored location of the heavier rain looks to be over the southeast third of the CWA, ending by daybreak Thursday.

Unless a decently opaque blowoff of cirrus precedes this rain, temperatures are expected to reach 80 in the north, 85 in the south. More of the same with the humid airmass is expected overnight. Lows will again be in the upper 50s in the north, low 60s for the remainder of the forecast area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Thursday will see more dry air working in, but lingering lighter showers remain a possibility in most of the region, slightly less so in the southwest. This is as yet another s/w piece of energy gets pushed ene ahead of the l/w trough, prompting a surface circulation to move east through the CWA Trailing this surface low, a cold front will turn winds sharply to the north overnight, with lows dropping to a significantly cooler range from the upper 40s to around 50.

This cooler air bottoms out highs on Friday in the lower 60s, and clearing sky cover overnight drops overnight readings to within a degree or two of 45.

The next upper trough works in on Saturday, with a ssw flow over the region. The upper trough and potential surface circulation will maximize the threat of rain in the extended forecast Saturday afternoon. While this sw flow will only bump highs a little bit on Saturday from Friday, lows should be a carbon- copy from the night before. This flow will begin to modify the airmass a little warmer each day through the remainder of the forecast.

A not unusual variance in model depictions for the longer term necessitates some inclusion of lower chance pops for both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to trend towards normal as they should, and likely rise to above normal Mon/Tue, but not to the extent that we've been seeing in the here and now.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
In warm and unstable airmass an axis of strong to severe storms has developed to our west on a pre-frontal trof axis. These storms to move east impacting all TAF sites this evening into the overnight hours. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible with these storms. Storms to end from northwest to southeast by about 06Z.

Some fog and low cigs will be possible as a front slips into the Ohio Valley overnight. Have limited impacts to MVFR category at all but KLUK valley location.

Any fog that develops will improve quickly Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions thru the remainder of the day with thunderstorms redeveloping from the southwest during the evening. Have a mention at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday and again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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