Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delaware, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:49PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:31PMMoonset 8:17AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 936 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 54 degrees and off erie 54 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201905222030;;276440 FZUS51 KCLE 221336 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 936 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ144>147-222030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delaware, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.3, -83.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kiln 221903
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
303 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will continue lifting north and east across ohio
tonight as low pressure moves from minnesota into wisconsin,
dragging a cold front into the great lakes on Thursday. This
front will initiate showers and thunderstorms for many areas on
Thursday, with dry weather and high pressure temporarily moving
in behind it on Thursday night with dry weather. The front will
stall over kentucky and return north as a warm front on Saturday
with a warm and humid airmass, and more thunderstorms expected
on Saturday into Sunday.

Near term through tonight
Still a complex scenario through tonight - primarily the later
afternoon into the mid-evening hours through the heart of the
iln cwa.

At 18z - there was an impressive differential heating boundary
on the eastern edge of deeper moisture axis that resides from
southeast indiana into north-central ohio. Temperatures go from
the mid 80s wilmington to the mid 60s west-central ohio
across this boundary and there is even a notable wind shift in
18z metars with northwesterly winds from ki67 to kmgy, and gusty
southwesterly winds from kcvg to kiln to kosu. So there is
clearly convergence and a shallow frontal circulation that will
likely be the impetus for cellular convection given the boundary
has mostly stalled over the past hour or two. Background height
rises cast uncertainty to how much of this convergence axis
becomes convectively active - and this has been well-manifested
by recent hrrr href members which show scattered 20-50%
coverage along the boundary from ksdf up through kcvg later
this afternoon - moving northeast along the i-71 corridor. All
models have kept the storm mode discrete cellular - which opens
the door for multiple hazards - including a brief weak tornado
should supercell structures processes take over for any period
of time.

Threat assessment of recent hrrr rap trends and mesoscale
analysis via observations satellite forecast soundings suggests
that MLCAPE should exceed 1500 j kg from springfield dayton
southwest to owen county ky by 00z. Juxtaposed with this
moderate instability will be effective shears around 40kts,
which should support the stronger of the discrete scattered
cells to become or at least minimally attain supercell
characteristics. Low level shear effective SRH will peak around
20kts 150m2 s2 which is adequate to allow a brief low level
mesocyclone, but overall mitigates any higher longer lived
tornado potential. Thus, think 2% tornado probs from SPC still
look good. Development of ample downdraft-aiding buoyancy
dcape suggests wind and hail will be primary threats from any
of the stronger discrete storms, with potential highest between
5 pm and 10 pm along the differential heating axis - which
should be maintained very near i-71. Assessment of
current forecast mllcls in this time window suggest any brief
tornado potential will be highly dependent of storm location to
tight gradient in warm well-mixed areas to the east, and
cooler more saturated areas over eastern indiana.

Expect diurnally forced action to wane slowly through mid late
evening. Likely a lull from 10 pm to 4 am for much of the
forecast area although with heights slowly falling aloft and
slowly increasing cyclonic mid upper level flow as shortwave to
the northwest approaches, think activity will likely be in near
the CWA especially north most of the night. Large MCS will be
decaying as it approaches from the west toward sunrise.

Increasing low level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will
be feeding this complex, though it seems highest probabilities
of arrival will be on Thursday which is discussed below.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
Remnant MCS to move across northern portions of the forecast
area on Thursday morning. Confidence is not high - at all - on
coverage of activity given it will arrive at a diurnally
inopportune time. Do have a few hours of likely rain chances
across the northwest half of the CWA in the morning hours on
Thursday. These remnants likely will be sub-severe, but can't
rule out a strong storm though given plenty of leftover
instability and steeper lapse rate aloft to tap.

Strong shortwave trough shifting through the great lakes into
the northeast on Thursday as southward-advancing outflow
boundary from MCS remnants settles south of i-70 and perhaps as
far south as the ohio river by afternoon. There's a pretty good
signal that this outflow boundary or differential heating from
mcs anvil will be impetus for renewed convective initiation on
Thursday afternoon in the iln CWA and perhaps as far back as
southern indiana - at least on an isolated scattered basis. With
flow in the mid upper levels being strong and turning more
northwest, directional shear profiles will be on the increase
and will move past 50kt 0-6km which suggests organized storm
modes and increasing forward propagation are in play. Slgt risk
in place in the scioto valley and could see this being extended
westward toward ohio river based on forcing environment in place
at peak heating. With westerly low level flow, not sure we see
too much tornado threat, but certainly an environment that will
support storm organization and wind hail given strong shear that
is well balanced by moderate instability south of the outflow
boundary.

This activity will rapidly dive east southeast into the
appalachians on Thursday evening, which dry weather briefly
taking over as the effective outflow cold front slowly settles
out of the area.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Highly amplified mid level flow with a trof over the west and a
strong ridge over the southeast. The mid level ridge builds over the
area with a surface front lifting back north as a warm front Friday.

With lack of upper support will continue to limit pops to only a
slight chance. Warm temperatures to continue with Fridays highs
from 80 north to the upper 80s south.

Active weather pattern this weekend with a front oscillating through
the area. Chances for thunderstorms will continue Saturday around
the periphery of the mid level ridge. The best chance looks to be
across iln S northern counties closer to the frontal boundary.

Warm temperatures to continue with high temperatures Saturday from
the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.

A better threat for storms looks focused Sunday as the northern
portions of the mid level ridge flattens and the surface front sags
back south into the ohio valley. Sundays high temperatures look to
range from the upper 70s north to the mid 80s south.

Model solutions show considerable spread on the handling of the
western trof and therefore the strength of upstream ridge and
surface front over the region early next week. Therefore, confidence
is low on timing and chances for convection and will go with a
blended solution approach.

Will keep chance pops for storms Monday with the best chance across
the south - closer to where the frontal position is expected to lay
out. A little cooler in the way of temperatures Monday with highs
from the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south.

Thunderstorm chances will continue with the front lifting back north
sometime Monday night into Tuesday. Big variance in temperature
solution possible Tuesday - which is dependent on the frontal
position. Have highs from the upper 70s north to the mid 80s south.

High spread on how quick mid level ridge shifts east and next front
approaches for the middle of next week. Have trended toward
gfs canadian solutions which bring the front through Wednesday
night early Thursday - with the slower ECMWF keeping the ridge in
place longer.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Moisture axis has moved into the area with expansive cirrus
spreading over the TAF sites early this warm. SomeVFR ceilings
around 3kft-5kft impacting kday and these will continue to
spread east to affect most terminals later this afternoon. Warm
front has spread north of the area allowing south southwesterly
flow gusty in some areas which will back and weaken to some
degree after sunset. Still expecting scattered storms to
develop 20-21z in the i-71 corridor and these could impact
iln cvg luk in particular with heavy downpours and gusty winds
for 15-30 minutes. Lesser threats at kday and klck kcmh, but
can't rule it out in those locations either. For right now, have
just mentioned a vcts at cvg luk iln.

Should be a lull in activity after this weakens later this
evening, but expect decaying storm complex to be approaching the
taf sites after sunrise on Thursday. Highest probability that
this impacts kday kcmh klck on Thursday morning with potential
MVFR CIGS vsbys, but not confident enough in coverage right now
to put in prevailing taf. Did insert a vcsh in those locations.

Winds again become gusty out of the southwest in the afternoon
all locations - and expect redevelopment along southward-
advancing outflow boundary on Thursday afternoon that will
likely impact iln cvg luk. Confidence is low, however, on
coverage further north so vcsh continues at day lck cmh.

Outlook... Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Binau
near term... Binau
short term... Binau
long term... Ar
aviation... Binau


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 80 mi98 min SW 1 71°F 1016 hPa63°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 81 mi23 min WSW 2.9 G 6 70°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 88 mi35 min N 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 57°F1015.7 hPa56°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last
24hr
SE3
SE3
G6
NE4
E4
G7
E4
E8
E5
E8
E7
G11
E12
G15
E9
G13
E5
G9
E9
G13
E9
G12
E8
G11
E9
E9
G16
E7
G10
NE5
G8
NE8
G11
E7
SE3
G6
E5
G10
N4
1 day
ago
W17
G24
W13
G19
NW18
G22
NW16
G20
NW14
NW12
G15
NW12
G15
N10
NE11
G14
NE8
NE8
NE9
NE7
G11
NE6
NE6
NE7
NE3
NE2
E6
NE7
NE9
G12
NE7
E6
E6
2 days
ago
W12
G23
SW5
G9
S5
G8
S5
G10
S7
G12
S7
G15
S7
G15
S5
G10
SW4
G9
SW4
G7
SW4
G8
SW3
G6
SW4
G8
SW5
G9
SW6
G12
W9
G17
W7
G11
W10
G16
W10
G18
W14
G19
W15
G20
W10
G17
W15
G19
W13
G23

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH15 mi30 minSW 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F61°F49%1015.5 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH16 mi28 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F63°F66%1016.9 hPa
Marion, Marion Municipal Airport, OH22 mi30 minNW 710.00 miOvercast75°F63°F66%1016.6 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH22 mi32 minSSW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast84°F62°F48%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrNE9NE8NE10E9E9E8E9E6E7E10E6SE5E7E9E9SE9SE8SE9S8S9S5SW13
G22
SW13
G19
SW14
G21
1 day agoNW12
G20
NW9
G18
NW9NW9NW9NW8N8N8N5N6N6N5NE4NE8NE9E10NE6E10E10E104E7NE11E11
2 days agoW17
G31
CalmS9S8S10SW9SW8SW8SW7SW7SW6SW8SW9SW7W10
G18
W12
G18
W15W15
G19
W15
G21
W14
G19
W13
G21
W15
G21
W12NW12

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.