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FXUS61 KPBZ 051803 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 203 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact portions of the region this evening and during the early overnight time period.
A few storms could be severe and produce strong wind, hail, and heavy rainfall. Wet, warm conditions are anticipated to continue throughout the week as an elongated trough builds to our west and deep southwest flow remains.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong to severe storms are expected to continue to develop this afternoon through the late evening as as a weak cold front and shortwave cross into eastern Ohio and western PA.
- Along with severe winds, expected heavy rainfall rates with passing storms.
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A weak shortwave trough and cold front are currently tracking through central Ohio at the moment. A few pulse thunderstorms have already initiated within Cleveland's county warning area.
These cells have been considered sub-severe at the moment with cores not even breaching 20kft. Dry air is noted on the low and mid-level water vapor over northwestern Ohio, and it may take a few hours to reach peak destabilization.

With marginal wind shear, high PWATs, and a saturated soil from convection over the last 24 hours, isolated flooding could impact the urban areas. A passing storm over the Wayne County Airport in Ohio did measure 0.50 inches of rain in less than 30 minutes. Any slow moving or backbuilding cells with heavy rainfall rates may be considered Flood Warning worthy.

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Break in the rain possible Monday for a large portion of the region.
- Temperatures remain above normal Monday.

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A shortwave trough will dig into portions of the Upper Midwest Monday morning. This will promote modest height rises over the region. Weak cold air advection behind today's cold front will spread somewhat drier air over the area. This should allow for a break in the rain and some decrease in cloud cover Monday afternoon. A weak shortwave moving eastward around the main trough, could bring the risk for isolated to scattered showers over locations mainly south of I-70.

Temperatures will cool a bit on Monday, but still remain above normal.

Lots of uncertainty on Tuesday that will depend on the path of a weakening shortwave trough and the crossing of a surface warm front. If the trough digs further south, rainfall coverage would be more focused on the southern half of the forecast area as the surface boundary would not make as much headway to the north. If the wave shifts further north and the warm front does as well, then the showers would do the same. Further complicating Tuesday is the speed of the wave. A faster exit could cause modest 500mb height rises during the afternoon.
Latest blended guidance is leaning toward a more northerly and slower track of the wave, so will ride with that solution.

Temperatures will warm once again on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continue through the week but more uncertainty lends to lower confidence.
- Temperatures favored to remain above normal.
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An active weather pattern will remain in place for our region, with decent daily precipitation chances through Friday. Deep- layer shear will increase as well behind the departing ridge, so severe weather chances will need to be monitored as well.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface heating across the area has resulted in the lifting and scattering of ceilings across the area. However, some intermittent ceilings of MVFR and IFR are still likely through the afternoon. Specifically, FKL and DUJ will hover between below IFR to IFR through much of the period due to the cooler and more moist conditions in the north. Expect MVFR to VFR across the rest of the terminals through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop into the afternoon with heating but expect coverage to be scattered. Cigs are expected to crash again tonight behind the front with the return of northwest flow.

Outlook
Some improvements to the restrictions are expected Monday with influence of high pressure to the north, but shortwave movement across the TN River Valley may maintain some restriction/precipitation chances for southern terminals.

The rest of the week will remain active with varying periods of precipitation and restrictions amid low pressure passage.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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