Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 10:58 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 341 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then chance of tstms late this evening. Chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 341 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Weak low pressure and a frontal boundary shift farther offshore tonight into Wednesday. High pressure then takes control of the weather Wednesday afternoon through at least Friday. A weakening frontal system then approaches for the second half of the weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 010146 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 946 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front settles south and east of our area tonight before moving back north as a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday.
A weak cold front then settles to our south Thursday night into Friday. Another cold front slowly approaches Saturday and Sunday, then it gradually settles to our south and east early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Scattered showers and storms continue to progress across the region.
As instability has waned, the thunderstorms have weakened and are no longer expected to be severe. However, a few rumbles of thunder remain possible over the next couple of hours.

Showers will continue to weaken and diminish in coverage heading toward midnight, but with the trough still yet to move through, some light showers will linger, mainly east of I-95, possibly through dawn on Wednesday. Some vorticity may continue to advect in on WNW flow aloft in the wake of the main trough on Wednesday. However, moisture will be very limited, and the atmosphere will be fairly stable, so while a pop up shower, perhaps along the sea-breeze, cannot be completely ruled out, do not have anything mentioned in the forecast. Otherwise, Wednesday looks like it will turn out to be a fairly pleasant day as clouds tend to give way to sunshine, especially away from the coast. Look for highs mainly in the 70s, but much cooler toward the shore thanks to a pronounced onshore breeze.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As a shortwave trough slides across New England Wednesday night and Thursday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build eastward with its axis cresting our region Friday or Friday night. At the surface, weak high pressure shifts east of our area into Thursday, however there may be a weak low pressure sliding across northern New England Thursday. An associated weak cold front may settle south across our area Thursday afternoon and Thursday. As the ridge aloft arrives Friday, surface high pressure centered well to or north-northeast is forecast to extend southward into our area keeping a front to our southwest.

Our sensible weather through this time frame may be limited to some times of more cloudiness as the system moving through is on the weak side and moisture looks limited. A warm air mass will be in place Thursday, however light enough flow should keep it much cooler closer to the coast with a sea breeze circulation. In the wake of the weak system, some cooling is forecast for Friday although daytime temperatures are still above average. Even on Friday, temperatures will be much cooler closer to the coast once again with more of a marine influence.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Summary...Much cooler over the weekend with increasing chances for showers, then turning warmer early next week.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level ridge axis should be shifting to our east or weakening Saturday. An upper-level trough sliding across the Midwest is forecast to shift east and especially northeast through the weekend into early next week. A cold front attached to the associated surface low should be slow to arrive into our area over the weekend as the main system tracks well to our northwest and north. The front itself may not settle east and south of our area until sometime Monday. This may result in a period of more unsettled weather.

For Saturday and Sunday...As an upper-level trough slides across south-central Canada to the Midwest, it mostly shifts east-northeast more into Canada. A surface low associated with it then tracks well north of our region across Canada. An attached cold front however will slowly be approaching our area during this time frame. Given how far removed the main trough is from the surface cold front, the front should be slow to get into our area. A lead shortwave trough however may provide enough lift for some increase in showers later Saturday through Sunday. The amount of shower activity that occurs with this system is less certain at this time as it will depend on the forcing strength that arrives. Surface high pressure centered to our northeast Saturday before shifting farther east will keep an onshore wind in place and therefore a much cooler air mass across our entire region. The marine influence should also limit the amount of instability.

For Monday and Tuesday...The aforementioned upper-level trough across mostly eastern Canada shifts eastward with more of a zonal flow aloft across our region. Weak high pressure is forecast to be working its way into our area as a weakening cold front settles south and east of our area. This time frame could be precipitation free, however given some timing uncertainty with the front went with the NBM PoPs (20-40 percent). An offshore wind to start should turn more southerly with time and therefore allowing temperatures to warm quite a bit. Some cooling may still occur however along the coast as the wind becomes more off the ocean again.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue progressing from west to east. The storms are now moving into the I-95 corridor north of TTN. While an isolated thunderstorm may pass south of TTN, closer to the other I-95 terminals, continue to leave out a mention of TEMPO TSRA in this corridor, as thunderstorm activity is weakening. As showers and storms continue to decrease in coverage between 04 and 06Z, CIGs may lower to MVFR, mainly north of PHL toward TTN and ABE. Winds tending light NE, or variable at times. Low confidence.

Wednesday...Some MVFR or at least low VFR CIGs possible in the morning, particularly from PHL northeastward. Some light SHRA possible around MIV/ACY early in the morning, otherwise mainly VFR with partial clearing from west to east heading past 15-18Z.
Winds will become more WNW toward the afternoon from I-95 northwest, but remain E or SE toward the coast, around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions probable with increasing chances for showers.

MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday. Winds easing and tending more northerly later tonight, then becoming onshore and generally SE around 10 kt on Wednesday, with seas around 3 ft.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria, although seas could build to 5 feet for a time Saturday night and Sunday on the ocean zones.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Red Bank
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Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:43 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:19 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Tue -- 12:13 AM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:48 PM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2), knots

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