Wednesday, April24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Bank, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday April 24, 2019 4:48 AM EDT (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 10:00AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 334 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2019
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 334 Am Edt Wed Apr 24 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in today and lasts into Thursday. A warm front approaches Thursday night, then low pressure and cold front pass Friday. High pressure returns for Saturday, then a weak low passes through on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Bank , NJ
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location: 40.35, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240737
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
337 am edt Wed apr 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move offshore today. A surface low will progress
from the central plains today to the ohio valley on Thursday. As it
continues northeastward on Friday, a warm front will move through
the mid-atlantic, followed by a cold front on Friday night. Another
system may affect the region late this weekend. A stalled front may
linger across the mid-atlantic for much of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 3 am, the cold front was still very slowly sinking through the
region. It should move off shore shortly after sunrise. In its wake,
colder and drier air will filter in to the region. As mentioned by
the previous shift, we will keep a relatively tight pressure
gradient across the region for much of the day as the main surface
low digs towards the gulf of maine. Consequently, breezy conditions
are possible through the afternoon.

Cold air advection behind this front is not especially strong. Thus,
expect temperatures, although lower than Tuesday, will still be
slightly above normal. Highs should be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Surface high builds over region, resulting in light and variable
winds overnight. A mid level short wave trough could be responsible
for increasing mid level clouds late tonight into early Thursday
morning. The dry air and light winds will set the stage for
efficient radiational cooling, so lows should be in the 40s, with
lower 50s possible in DELMARVA and the 95 urban corridor.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Primary forecast challenges in the medium-range period include
precipitation chances Friday, winds on Saturday, and poor model
agreement thereafter.

In general, models are in below-average agreement through the medium
range. This is largely owing to uncertainties in the large-scale
pattern in the pacific and the inherently higher uncertainty
associated with shortwave troughs progressing in mostly separate
northern and southern streams in north america. There is some
indication this long-duration large-scale pattern will change across
the CONUS next week, but the evolving pattern is also subject to
large uncertainty owing to the smaller-scale perturbations and their
upscale effects on increased wave amplification. The result is a
much-below-average forecast Thursday onward, but especially so
beginning Sunday.

Model discrepancies begin to appear Thursday, as a southern-stream
perturbation in the southern plains begins to eject east-
northeast to the tennessee valley and southeast. There are two
main questions associated with this perturbation's evolution:
the overall strength of the perturbation and its potential
interaction with a northern-stream shortwave trough. The NAM and
gfs have trended toward a stronger perturbation with increased
phasing with the northern stream. This leads to stronger
cyclogenesis on the east coast Friday and Saturday compared to
the ECMWF and cmc. The cmc looks too fast and too weak compared
to the other guidance and was generally discarded from the
forecast through the medium range. The 00z ECMWF also trended
slightly stronger, but is exhibiting far greater run-to-run
continuity versus the GFS (and is also closer to ensemble
solutions). As such, weighted the ECMWF solution more highly
than other guidance in this forecast, but given the fairly
distinct and consistent trends in the guidance, suspect more
changes to the evolution of the system are coming in subsequent
model runs.

Regarding the sensible weather details, a predecessor northern-
stream perturbation will move through the mid-atlantic on Thursday,
and models are showing signs that lift will be strong enough to
generate some showers across the area. Increased pops and sky cover
(the latter substantially) on Thursday, though precipitation amounts
should be light (generally a trace to a couple of tenths). Transient
shortwave ridging should ensue by evening before isentropic ascent
in advance of the main southern-stream perturbation approaches the
region late Thursday night. The trend here has been somewhat more
aggressive with precipitation across the area, but there are mixed
signals among the guidance. The NAM keeps most of the precipitation
west of the area (which tends to be the case when ridge
amplification occurs downstream of phasing systems in the
midwest southeast). The GFS is somewhat wetter, but tends to be too
far east with this threat in warm-advection regimes. Nevertheless,
the ECMWF appears similarly, so raised pops late Thursday night as
well.

Friday and Friday night will likely see some widespread showers and
possibly storms as the attendant cold front moves through the
region. Instability looks fairly limited, as thermodynamic profiles
feature poor lapse rates. Shear is decent but by no means
exceptional, so chances of severe storms look fairly low at this
point. Think at least a slight chance of storms is warranted for
Friday afternoon evening, however.

Qpf is pretty variable among the model suite, but appears tied to
the strength of the developing surface low on the east coast (and
its proximity to the area). Used a consensus approach for now, which
ends up giving the area a general half-to-one-inch of rainfall.

However, potential exists for higher totals (per the GFS and nam),
so cannot rule out some heavy rain potential. Notably, pws will be
high (generally 1.25+ inches), with potential for some convective
training should the more amplified GFS nam solutions be realized.

As the cold front sweeps offshore Friday night, attention turns to
wind potential late Friday night and Saturday. Bufkit soundings do
not show particularly impressive mixed-layer depths in the post-
frontal regime; however, winds just off the surface will be cranking
(particularly in the more amplified GFS nam scenarios). As such,
potential to mix down 30+ kt winds is present. Bumped up winds
substantially during this period (though not to the above-mentioned
thresholds yet). As is typical in these regimes, the wind gusts
realized may be stronger than a 3+ day forecast would suggest.

Any remaining model agreement derails by Sunday, as another
shortwave trough approaches the area. The GFS is considerably more
amplified than the ECMWF cmc (though there appears to be some
trending toward increased amplification). The GFS is wetter for our
area as a result (with the strongest lift farther north in the
ecmwf cmc). Slight-chance to low-chance pops appear warranted for
Sunday and Sunday night at this point until model agreement improves.

Thereafter, a period of high pressure is expected in the northeast,
but its duration and its ability to force an associated cold front
southward are in question. The GFS and the ECMWF indicate the front
may get held up in close proximity to our region as subtropical
ridging begins to take shape in the southeast and adjacent western
atlantic. This suggests several rounds of precipitation may be
possible next week. Kept mentionable pops the rest of the period,
though capped probabilities at low-chance thresholds given large
uncertainty in frontal position and timing of midlevel perturbations
poleward of the developing ridge.

Temperatures through the long term were changed little from the
previous forecast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected with only few to scattered high
clouds. Winds will generally be out of the northwest through the
day. Gusts near 20 kt are possible, primarily between 15 and 21z.

Tonight...VFR conditions are expected. Winds will start
northwesterly near 10 kt, but quickly become light and variable.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR, though there is potential for MVFR showers.

Winds becoming southeast or south around below 10 kts. Low
confidence.

Thursday night... Sub-vfr probable with increasing chances for
showers late, especially northwest of phl. Light south or southeast
winds. Some potential for low-level wind shear. Moderate confidence.

Friday... Periods of sub-vfr possible with a good chance of showers
and possibly thunderstorms. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 kts,
possibly with a few gusts to 20 kts or so. Moderate confidence.

Friday night... Showers storms ending, withVFR conditions ensuing.

Winds becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10 to 20 kts,
with higher gusts possible. Moderate confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night...VFR with strong northwest winds
Saturday (possibly gusting to 30+ kts) subsiding to light variable
by late Saturday night. Moderate confidence.

Sunday... MainlyVFR, but increasing chances for showers. Southwest
winds 5 to 15 kts. Low confidence.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria today and tonight. Northwesterly gusts around 20 kt are
possible through the day, and seas may get close to 5 feet on the
atlantic coastal waters, but we expect conditions to stay just below
thresholds.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night... Sub-advisory winds seas expected. A
slight chance of showers.

Friday and Friday night... South to southwest winds approaching
advisory criteria, with seas rising to near above 5 feet. A good
chance of showers storms. Winds switching to northwest late Friday
night, at which point advisory conditions are probable.

Saturday... Advisory conditions probable with northwest winds slowly
subsiding during the day. Seas near above 5 feet but decreasing
gradually.

Saturday night... Sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Sunday... Increasing south to southwest winds, with gusts approaching
advisory criteria. Seas may rise to around above 5 feet.

Fire weather
Behind the cold front early this morning, we are expecting drier air
to filter in. Consequently, on the coastal plains, minimum rh values
could be as low as 30 percent today. Additionally, wind gusts around
20 mph are possible across the region today. One uncertainty though
is the state of fuels. Greenup continues across the region, and many
areas have seen rain (albeit light rain) in the last few days.

Depending on the state of fuels, the new jersey coastal plains could
get close to elevated fire weather conditions today. We may
coordinate with our nj state fire partners later this morning to
determine if an sps for elevated fire weather conditions would be
warranted.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Cms johnson
fire weather... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi30 min W 7 G 8 61°F 55°F1006.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi28 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 50°F1005.6 hPa51°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi36 min 64°F 55°F1005.3 hPa
MHRN6 21 mi30 min SW 7 G 11
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi30 min WSW 9.9 G 12 65°F 1005 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi30 min 64°F 52°F1005.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi30 min W 8.9 G 9.9 62°F 50°F1005.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi30 min NW 4.1 G 6 64°F 57°F1006.6 hPa
44091 43 mi48 min 50°F5 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi72 min WSW 7 G 9.9 65°F 56°F1005.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi58 min SW 16 G 18 54°F 49°F5 ft1005.7 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi52 minSW 710.00 miFair64°F52°F65%1006.5 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W4W8--6W9NW9W8N3E10E12E10SE8SE8S5SE5S8S6S9S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey
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Red Bank
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:47 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:43 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:12 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:56 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.23.332.51.81.20.70.20.10.51.21.92.42.72.62.21.71.30.90.60.50.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT     -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:44 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:42 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.3-0.8-1.5-2-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.40.61.21.31.10.5-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.3-0.9-0.30.61.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.