Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Bank, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:47PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 7:25 AM EDT (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 353 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 353 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach and move through tonight. High pressure returns on Thursday and then builds to the north on Friday as a wave of low pressure passes to the south. A stronger high pressure builds from the west over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Bank , NJ
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location: 40.35, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261033
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
633 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Synopsis
A cold front extended from the great lakes to texas early this
morning. The boundary will progress eastward and it should pass
through our region tonight. The front is expected to stall to
our southeast and south for Thursday and Friday as weak areas of
low pressure ride along it. Another cold front from the
northwest is forecast to arrive on Saturday, followed by high
pressure for Sunday. A warm front approaching from the southwest
may affect our region early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
For the 630 am update: pushed back timing of the pops slightly
as now that we are in the range of the high res models, they
mostly seem to be favoring the later timing. However, did not
make any whole sale changes at this point until we have a better
idea of the timing of the front.

Previous discussion: focus remains on the afternoon and evening
convection ahead of the approaching cold front. There isn't
much change with the 00z model runs. There remain some
significant timing differences between the models, with the nam
being one of the slowest solutions (about 3 hours slower than
the GFS or rap). While 3 hours may not seem like much of a
difference, given the time of day, 3 hours could mean the
difference between severe winds or not. With this forecast, i
have gone with timing that is only slightly slower than the gfs,
which seems to be a good middle of the road solution. We should
have a better idea once we see how much progress the front
(which is still over western ohio as of 3 am) makes through the
morning. As for the hazards:
heavy rain: with the 00z RAOB soundings, precipitable water
(pwat) values on regional soundings was near or above 200
percent of normal! With continued southerly flow, and the
associated moisture advection, this will only continue. The warm
cloud layer is also relatively deep for this time of year.

Thus, some of the storms today could be efficient rain
producers. However, fast storm motions should somewhat limit the
threat. None the less, the slower the front is, and closer to
the NAM timing, the more the threat for training storms, and
thus flash flooding, increases. For now, will mention the
potential for localized flooding in the hwo, the the chance is
too low for a watch.

Severe storms: the primary hazard looks to be strong damaging
winds. The CAPE profiles within the hail growth region are
likely too thin to support severe hail, and the wind profiles,
especially through the low levels are too close to
unidirectional to support much of a tornado threat.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The main question tonight will be how far south the front will
reach before stalling. While it is expected to move through the
entire region before stalling, if it stalls close enough to the
coast of SE nj and northern delmarva, those areas could see
continued showers through the overnight hours. For the rest of
the region, expect northwesterly flow and dry air advection.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
The mid level pattern is expected to feature a ridge over the
southwestern states, another ridge off the southeast coast and a
trough over the mississippi river valley on Thursday. The
pattern is forecast to flatten with a somewhat zonal flow
anticipated for the weekend. A ridge may try to build over the
southeastern states early next week.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stall to our
southeast and south for Thursday and Friday. The models differ
in the timing of weak surface waves moving along the boundary,
although they seem in general agreement that they will exist as
the mid level flow remains generally from the southwest. The
expected pattern should bring a continuing potential for rain in
northeastern maryland, delaware and southern new jersey from
Thursday into Friday morning. The rain is anticipated to spread
northward into eastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey for
late Thursday into early Friday. The rain may become moderate to
heavy at times, mainly on Thursday night, as a fairly robust
mid level short wave lifts northeastward over our region.

The main slug of rain is forecast to move off the coast on
Friday with some drying building into our region from the west
in the wake of the mid level short wave. A cold front from the
northwest should arrive on Saturday, with the consensus timing
being early in the day. The deep moisture is expected to be to
our east by the time the front arrives. As a result, we are not
forecasting any precipitation to accompany it.

High pressure is expected to build from the great lakes on
Saturday to new england on Sunday, bringing our region a dry
weekend.

The center of the high is anticipated to move into atlantic
canada early next week, with a ridge axis trailing into the
middle atlantic states. The return flow to the northwest of the
axis should allow a warm front to lift into our region at that
time. As a result, we will mention an increase in cloud cover.

There is a chance of showers, mainly in our counties in eastern
pennsylvania and northern new jersey, which should be a bit
farther removed from the ridge.

Temperatures should be near seasonable levels for the period
from Thursday through Monday with readings going above normal
for Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Ceilings and visibilities, which have been
variable overnight, should gradually improve near and after 12z.

By 15z, expect most sites to be at MVFR orVFR ceilings with no
visibility restrictions. Light and variable winds will settle
out of the ssw by 12z, with speeds around 10 kt expected.

Moderate confidence on the pattern, but low confidence on the
timing of improving conditions.

This afternoon... Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
in from the west after 18z. With these thunderstorms, expect
temporary restrictions to MVFR or even ifr for both ceilings and
visibility. Additionally, strong winds will be possible with
the strongest storms, though confidence in that affecting any
one TAF site is too low to include in the tafs at this time. At
this point, the most likely period for storms will be 20z to 00z
for rdg and abe, 21 to 02z for the delaware valley sites (phl,
pne, ilg, and ttn) and 22 to 03z for the coastal sites (acy and
miv).However, it should be noted that some guidance is as much
as 3 hours later than this timing. Moderate confidence in the
pattern, but low confidence in the timing of the storms.

Tonight... The cold front that will be closely trailing the
storms will bring an abrupt shift to northwesterly and
eventually northerly winds. A brief period of gusts to 20 kt may
be possible immediately following the front. Once the storms
move off shore, we should seeVFR conditions return across the
region. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR conditions. A chance of rain, mostly in
the afternoon. North to east wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night... MVFR and ifr conditions in rain. The rain may
become moderate to heavy at times with isolated thunder.

Northeast wind 8 knots or less.

Friday... MVFR and ifr conditions in morning rain. Possible
improvement toVFR in the afternoon. Variable wind 8 knots or
less.

Friday night and Saturday... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 8 knots
or less on Friday night, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots on
Saturday.

Saturday night and Sunday... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 8 knots
or less.

Marine
Small craft advisory conditions are expected to continue
through at least tonight on the atlantic coastal waters. For
most of the period this will be primarily due to elevated seas.

However, a cold front will bring an abrupt shift to
northwesterly and northerly winds late tonight. A period of
gusts near 25 kt will be possible behind this front.

On the delaware bay, winds and seas should generally remain
below SCA criteria.

Gusty winds will be possible in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms especially this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday... A small craft advisory is in effect for our ocean
waters for wave heights around 5 feet. Otherwise, northeast wind
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Thursday night through Sunday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

though winds will be slightly weaker today, seas above 5 feet
will result in a moderate risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents through at least this evening. In addition,
lightning will be a concern, especially this evening.

A moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
is expected for Thursday. There should be a chaotic mix of
northeast, east and southeast swells along with breaking waves
around 2 to 3 feet. The wind should be out of the northeast
around 10 to 15 mph.

Climate
On Tuesday, the lehigh valley international airport (abe) got
1.39 inches of rain, brining the yearly precipitation total to
45.85 inches. The normal precipitation for the entire year is
45.35 inches, and we still have 97 days left in the year. Abe
joins rdg, mpo, acy, and phl as that that have already reached
their average annual precipitation.

Equipment
Kdix radar is currently off line due to an equipment failure.

Technicians will be trouble shooting the issue soon. We
apologize for any inconvenience. Surrounding radars include
kokx, kbgm, kccx, klwx, and kakq. Kdox remains offline due to an
equipment failure.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino johnson
marine... Iovino johnson
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi38 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 71°F1018.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 71°F5 ft1016.7 hPa71°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi38 min 73°F 71°F1016.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi38 min S 6 G 7 72°F 1017.2 hPa
MHRN6 21 mi38 min S 2.9 G 7
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi38 min 73°F 72°F1017.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi38 min SSW 8 G 8.9 71°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi38 min S 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 65°F1017.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi41 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 71°F
44091 43 mi26 min 72°F6 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi50 min W 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 66°F1016.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi36 min SSW 9.7 G 12 71°F 69°F6 ft1017.1 hPa (-1.1)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi41 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 71°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE14
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G26
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NE12
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NE6
G9
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G12
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G9
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G8
E5
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G9
NE7
G11
NE7
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E1
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G7
SE2
G6
E4
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G8
NE5
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G12
NE7
G11
NE10
G14
NE8
G13
NE11
G15
NE9
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi30 minSSW 44.00 miFog/Mist73°F72°F96%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
G21
SE12
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SE14
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SE9
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S7S7SE4S5E5--S4CalmSE3CalmCalmS5S74S4
1 day agoNE7NE9NE13
G18
E13
G18
E11E17
G22
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G26
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E12
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G21
E16
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G22
E13
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G21
E14
G22
2 days agoN4N4CalmCalm3W4NW5NW4CalmN3NW4CalmN3CalmE4E4E3E3E3NE4E4N4N6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.