Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:33 AM   Moonset 2:43 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1012 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Overnight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1012 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A backdoor cold front passes through tonight followed by high pressure building down the new england coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KPHI 030516 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 116 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will stall to our south and west on Friday. A weakening cold front will move into the region Saturday while a stronger front moves in later Sunday. After a couple of mostly dry days another front will approach towards midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast running on track, so no significant changes will be made with this update.

A cold front is moving southward through the region as low pressure moves southeastward off the coast of New England and high pressure builds into eastern Canada. This setup will shift winds to a north to northeast direction into tonight over the mid Atlantic. This will eventually bring in some marine stratus and perhaps some fog along the coast late tonight into Friday morning. The stratus should make it into the I-95 corridor and Lehigh Valley as well by around daybreak or so. Expect overnight lows mainly in the 50s...ranging from low 50s over the southern Poconos, NW NJ, and and the NJ coast to mid/upper 50s near the urban corridor of SE PA extending south into interior portions of Delmarva.

For Friday, ridging aloft will keep the area dry for at least one more day as it helps to keep the approaching system from the west at bay. Meanwhile the front will be stalled to our south but then arcing back to the north and west into PA just west of our region. The upshot of this is it will be a much cooler day with continuing easterly winds and mostly cloudy skies. Through the morning, marine stratus across the eastern half of the area will be slow to mix out into the late morning and early afternoon with the modest easterly wind near 10-20 mph.
Meanwhile by afternoon there will be some clouds moving in from the west. So not a completely sunny day but much of the region should see at least a little sun at some point except perhaps right along the coast. Speaking of which, expect highs near the coast will only get into the mid to upper 50s with warmer temperatures the farther west you go. Eastern PA down to the eastern MD shore should see highs mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s except some mid 70s over portions of Berks County.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Wedge of Canadian high pressure will continue nosing southwestward along the coast Friday night through Saturday night, keeping the frontal boundary which moves through tonight stalled to our southwest with a cooler maritime air mass in place over our region. A weakening cold front will be moving into the area from the west, but it will be too weak to dislodge the maritime air in place, and the front will wash out. Showers and thunderstorms associated with said front will develop to our west, especially Saturday and Saturday night, but are expected to weaken and eventually die out as they continue advecting eastward into the stable maritime air mass. Thus, POPS are highest in the far west/Poconos and much lower along the coast. Clouds will dominate thanks to the maritime influence and temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with highs Saturday in the upper 50s to 60s.

By Sunday, another, stronger cold front will be approaching from the west. This one looks likely to bring enough of a southwesterly push ahead of it to at least partially dislodge the stalled boundary to our southwest, which may bring 70s back into the Delmarva. Further north, it looks likely to stay stuck in the maritime air, with 50s and 60s more likely, along with continued mostly cloudy conditions. This stronger boundary from the west, however, looks more likely to spread showers and perhaps some mostly elevated thunderstorms into the region, so POPs are much higher on Sunday compared to Saturday. That said, still not expecting a lot of rain, mostly in the half inch rain, though locally more could be had with any heavier storms, especially NW of I-95.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The stronger cold front moving in Sunday will try its best to dislodge the marine layer for the balance of the week, though a boundary of some sort will remain nearby through the entire week. This boundary will continue to form the basic path of additional waves of low pressure moving eastward across the northern US. Given uncertainty about exactly where the boundary ends up each day, which will depend on passing low pressure waves and high pressures building in behind each one, have kept temps relatively stable in the 70s for highs and 50s to 60s for lows. Chance of precip appears to ebb behind the front Monday and Tuesday, but will return with additional waves of low pressure Wednesday and Thursday. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing of waves so confidence is not great regarding details.

AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Initially VFR much of the night. Expect some MVFR cigs after 09Z reaching as far inland as the I-95 corridor and Lehigh Valley. Less certainty that the MVFR ceilings will reach ILG and RDG. Any visibility restrictions should be confined to ACY. Winds near 5-10 knots and shifting to the north to northeast as a cold front passes the area. Northeast winds then prevail overnight, shifting more easterly toward 12Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Friday...MVFR ceilings to start will be slow to scatter out toward 15-18Z, though there should be improvement to VFR everywhere by 18Z or so. Winds generally easterly around 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots at ACY. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR cigs possible esp toward coastal sites.

Saturday...MVFR cigs possible.

Sunday...MVFR conds likely with IFR conds possible.

Monday...VFR likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. Northeast winds around 10 kt tonight. The main concern late tonight into Friday morning will again be the potential for marine dense fog.
Have added mention of fog to the forecast. Visibility could drop lower than 1 NM at times and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may need to be considered through Friday morning.

Easterly winds increase to near 15-20 kts on Friday with some gusts near 25 kts possible. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft through tonight and then 3 to 4 ft by later Friday. Seas may reach near 5 feet at times. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed, although confidence in reaching criteria for more than an hour or two is low.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Saturday night through Sunday...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet on the ocean.

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Red Bank
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Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
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Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey (2), Tide feet

The Narrows
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Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:40 PM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:09 PM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
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The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots

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