Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 324 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Showers likely until early morning, then chance of showers late. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 324 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 151920 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 320 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday, before drifting out to sea. High pressure tries to build down into the area from the northeast over the weekend, but never fully makes it into the area before another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians and offshore of the North Carolina coast later Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure may finally build across the area early next week, before a cold front moves across the east coast by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
310 PM...An area of low pressure continues to sit east of southern Delmarva this afternoon. There was an initial area of rainfall that moved through last night into this morning but most of this has shifted off to the east. The exception is near the NJ coast where there's still some weak echos being seen on radar. It's otherwise a mainly cloudy and cool afternoon with east/northeast winds that have been a bit gusty, especially near the coast. In the upper levels, a trough was centered near West Virginia. As we go through the rest of this afternoon into tonight this upper level trough will shift eastward towards the mid Atlantic helping capture the surface low.
This will cause it to stall off the coast of NJ. As a result, we'll see some additional periods of mostly light rain affecting the NJ coastal plain through this evening before precip starts to diminish from south to north becoming more confined towards areas around Monmouth County overnight. Areas farther west around Philly will be near or just west of these additional bands of rain so we keep a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast through most of tonight around here. Areas of patchy drizzle and light fog will also be possible. Generally expect lows in the 50s. It will also continue to be fairly windy tonight near the coast with NE winds gusting 20 to 30 mph.

For Thursday, not a lot of change is expected as the low will be drifting out to sea but only very slowly. This will keep it mainly cloudy with breezy north to northeast winds and some spotty light rain and showers around, once again, especially in NJ and near the coast. Western parts of the forecast area from around Berks County northward into the Lehigh Valley should see a mostly dry day. Expect highs mostly in the 60s (near 60 at the coast) except some low 70s possible in our western zones from Chester and north through Berks Counties and then into parts of the Lehigh Valley.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure remains pinwheeling offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night through Friday, before finally moving out to sea Friday night. There might be a few lingering showers near the New Jersey coast early Thursday night, but the forecast dries out for Friday as high pressure tries to begin nosing down into the area from the northeast. Most of Friday night should remain dry as well, except possibly late in the overnight showers may begin to move in from the west.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather can be expected for portions of the area this weekend, especially for the southern third of the area from southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland. As an area of low pressure will move across the central Appalachians, then offshore of the North Carolina coast Saturday into Sunday, a warm front will lift northward, but remain south of the area.
However, there will be enough moisture and lift across the area for periods of showers to develop across the southern areas.
High pressure tries to build down from the north, but never fully sets in, but it may have enough effect on the area to keep the weather mostly dry for the northern portions area; however, there will remain a chance of showers even for northern areas given the proximity of the low and front to the south.

By early next week, the low pressure to the south will begin to drift out to sea, while high pressure briefly affects the Mid Atlantic region. Dry weather is expected Monday into Tuesday. As we move into next Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move into the eastern seaboard, bringing an increase in shower chances.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon...Mainly MVFR cigs and VFR visbys this afternoon with low stratus and some spotty light rain and drizzle around. Exception is ACY where it should stay mainly IFR or LIFR. Northeast winds 10 to 15 gusting up to 20 knots except 15 to 20 gusting up to 30 knots at ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Continuing sub VFR with IFR cigs likely to redevelop this evening for the I-95 TAF sites and points south and east towards the coast. Some improvement back to MVFR then possible overnight around ILG, PHL, and PNE. Some lingering spotty light rain, drizzle and mist/fog around, especially around ACY. Northeast 10 to 15 knots backing to northerly overnight. Moderate confidence.

Thursday....Sub VFR cigs continue with only very gradual improvement into the afternoon from west to east. Most sites should be mainly at MVFR except IFR near MIV and especially ACY. North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...IFR then MVFR conditions expected with a chance of showers.

Friday-Saturday...VFR conditions expected.

Saturday night...VFR conditions early, then MVFR or IFR ceilings overnight with a chance of showers.

Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR or IFR conditions with a chance of showers.

Monday...Conditions improving to VFR.

MARINE
North to northeast winds will remain fairly strong over the waters into this evening before starting to come down somewhat by later tonight into Thursday. Gale conditions off the coast of NJ (Gale Warnings in effect) should diminish to SCA levels from south to north through the course of late this afternoon through tonight.
Small Craft Advisory levels conditions over the Delaware Bay diminishing this evening. Seas 6 to 10 feet through most of tonight diminishing to 5 to 7 feet by later Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Small Craft Advisory level seas likely continue through the night, but winds diminish below advisory levels during the overnight.

Friday...Small Craft Advisory levels seas may continue into Friday.

Friday night-Saturday night...Conditions remain below advisory levels.

Sunday-Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible, mainly due to seas although winds could gust around 20 knots.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451.
Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ452-453.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ454-455.

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Red Bank
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Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:23 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey (2), Tide feet

The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:14 AM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2), knots

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