Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday June 24, 2017 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:08AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1244 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Overnight..SW winds around 15 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and slight chance of tstms. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1244 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across the waters this morning into the afternoon. A secondary cold front moves across tonight. High pressure builds to the southwest of the waters Sunday into Monday. A weak cold front moves across the waters later Monday. High pressure then builds towards the mid atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240139
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
939 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over the midwest states will move through the
region on Saturday. Meanwhile, remnant tropical moisture will
stream northeastward ahead of the front. High pressure builds in
from the great plains and midwest region for the second half of
the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to move through the
region Monday night or Tuesday. High pressure returns to the
area for the middle of next week before moving off the coast
late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Contemplated and discussed a flash flood watch for the predawn
hours. In the end, we decided to hold off. Yes, pws associated
with a remnant tropical storm are in excess of 2.00 inches, but
we feel the speed of the heavier cells and lack of a significant
predawn convective contribution diminishes the threat to a
certain degree. In addition, FFG is fairly high. We feel the
hours between 09z and 12z will see the heaviest rains. We are
still expecting downpours, but they will be isolated and moving.

We have highlighted in the hwo.

Previous discussion...

severe thunderstorm watch 369 is in effect until 10 pm.

Previous discussion...

not many changes from the previous forecast. We still expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms to move into our region
from the west over the next several hours. Any clearing this
afternoon has been mostly self-destructive as cumulus fields
have developed quickly when there has been any clearing (except
over DELMARVA - where a stronger cap is in place). As a result,
we are slightly cooler than previously expected at the surface.

However, still warm enough for ml CAPE values above 500 j kg
across our region. In addition, a favorable wind profile with
increasing amounts of 0-6 km shear (primarily speed shear, as
flow above 900 mb is nearly unidirectional). Thus, there remains
a marginal to slight risk for severe storms over our region
through the evening hours.

Once we get to late this evening, we should see a brief lull as the
short wave trough weakens and the boundary layer stabilizes. After
midnight though, the cold front is expected to approach the region
from the west, and just ahead of this front, we should see one more
round of showers and thunderstorms. By tonight, the threat shifts
from strong winds to heavy downpours. However, the progressive
nature of the front should limit any flooding threat.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
The biggest difference with the latest model runs was how much
faster most models bring the front through the area, with many
models showing it clearing the coast by 12z. I'm not sure it will
move through that quickly, but did trend faster. This has not only
implications for how quickly we dry out (likely should see dry
conditions across the region by late morning), but also in the wind
forecast and with the MAX temperature forecast (chose to go closer
to the cooler operational models than the MOS guidance).

Long term Saturday night through Friday
The large-scale pattern over the CONUS will feature an upper trough
east of the rockies and an upstream ridge through early next week.

For our area, this pattern will 1) allow for a break in the active
stretch of weather we have had recently and 2) keep us far away from
the heart of the summer heat (western conus).

A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Monday before
moving through the forecast area sometime either Monday night or
Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave disturbances
rounding the base of great lakes upper trough may provide a source
of deeper lift for showers both days. The bulk of the forcing for
ascent looks to remain upstream of our area on Monday, so it is
likely that any diurnally-driven convection will be sparse in
coverage and confined to the higher terrain N W of the fall line.

There is no mention of thunder in the forecast for Monday as
soundings from both the NAM and GFS do not indicate a favorable
environment for sustained deep convection owing to limited moisture
availability and a residual capping inversion in place. Despite a
post-frontal regime, the setup may be slightly more conducive for
low-topped thunderstorms on Tuesday as a cold pool aloft that is
associated with the upper trough shifts overhead and helps steepen
the mid-level lapse rates.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday night-Thursday with high
pressure influencing our weather. Showers and storms return to the
forecast next Friday as high pressure shifting offshore and the next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Kept pops low (20-30
percent) for Friday given the considerable model disagreement on d7.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal and quite comfortable for
outdoor activity with highs for most of the area in upper 70s and
lower 80s (except mid 80s on Sunday across the i-95 corridor, east)
through the middle of next week. Temperatures gradually return to
near normal late in the week as the high moves off the coast and
southerly return flow develops.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MVFR and even brief ifr conditions will be possible with any showers
and thunderstorms that may move over the TAF sites. The primary
period for showers and thunderstorms will be first through 03z, and
then again between 08 and 12z (possibly going as late as 15z for the
coastal sites including kacy and kmiv).

Otherwise, mostlyVFR conditions are expected with skies clearing
after 15z.

Breezy southwesterly winds, with gusts up to 20 kt will be possible
through about 00z. An abrupt wind shift, winds shifting from
southwesterly to northwesterly, is expected with a cold front
moving over the area generally between 10 and 15z.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday morning...VFR. Winds primarily out of
the W or nw.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday... MostVFR but sub-vfr restrictions
still a possibility, especially on Tuesday in locally heavier
showers.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
The SCA for de bay has been allowed to expire.

Previous discussion...

sca conditions, for both winds and seas are expected to continue
tonight and tomorrow. An abrupt wind shift from southwesterly to
northwesterly winds is expected by mid day Saturday. Winds may
diminish a bit behind the front, but seas are expected to remain
elevated through much of the day.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Did not extend the current SCA into Saturday night
with seas likely to drop below 5 ft in our coastal atlantic waters.

W-sw winds around 10 kt early in the evening shift to NW behind a
cold front.

Sunday through Wednesday... Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. An isolated TSTM possible on Tuesday.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
continues today for the nj shore. For tomorrow, winds will be
shifting off shore, but a 5 to 6 ft swell may lead to a moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents especially
along the central and southern nj shore. For the northern nj
shore and the delaware beaches, the risk is expected to be low
at this time. However, even with a low risk... The bigger diurnal
difference in the tide cycle due to the new moon today could
mean some rapidly changing conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
Very high astronomical tides will continue through the next few days
in association with the new moon today. However, flow should be
shifting more offshore, so though spotty minor tidal flooding
is possible with this afternoon evening's high tide, the threat
for widespread minor tidal flooding has diminished.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Johnson kruzdlo
short term... Johnson
long term... Klein
aviation... Johnson
marine... Johnson klein
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi44 min SW 12 G 16 78°F 75°F1002.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi42 min SSW 18 G 19 68°F 65°F4 ft1003.4 hPa (-0.9)66°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi56 min SW 16 G 24 1003.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi44 min 81°F 71°F1003 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi44 min SW 12 G 17
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi44 min 78°F 68°F1003 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi44 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 64°F1002.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi47 min S 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 68°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 12 82°F 77°F1003.9 hPa
44091 44 mi32 min 61°F6 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi42 min SSW 19 G 23 72°F 68°F6 ft1003.3 hPa (-1.2)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi47 min SSW 9.7 G 14 73°F 70°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi36 minSSW 1010.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1004.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi41 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F71°F97%1003.7 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi41 minW 910.00 miOvercast79°F73°F82%1003 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W4W5SW4CalmW3CalmNE5E8SE744SE8SE9S10
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2 days agoSW8SW5SW5SW4SW5SW4SW7SW6SW7W11W11W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Oceanic Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:32 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.910.1-0.4-0.40.41.62.83.63.93.62.81.910.2-0.3-0.30.51.83.24.24.74.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:36 AM EDT     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:34 AM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:50 PM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     2.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:10 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-2.5-2.6-2.1-1.4-0.311.81.91.50.7-0.6-1.6-2.2-2.4-2-1.2-0.21.12.22.52.31.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.