Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rumson, NJ
May 8, 2024 3:23 AM EDT (07:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 5:47 AM Moonset 9:07 PM |
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 120 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Overnight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers and tstms, then showers likely with slight chance of tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 120 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure moves north of the area Wednesday as an associated warm front lifts north late overnight into Wednesday morning. Another low pressure approaches along a frontal boundary south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 080656 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 250 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure tracks by to our north early this morning.
This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with additional upper level disturbances tracking through the area this weekend. A warmer, drier pattern looks to return early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH Thursday/
250 AM...As of early this morning a warm front associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes was lifting north of the region. Meanwhile, an area of showers/storms closer to the center of the low and ahead of the system's cold front was approaching from western PA. Some of these have been strong to severe given the strong shear and forcing associated with the environment despite ML CAPE only being around 500 to 1000 j/kg. There has also been some mist, fog, and areas of low stratus that have developed across the region as we get into the warm sector of the approaching system with light southerly winds.
As we go through the latter part of the overnight into Wednesday morning, showers/storms move eastward and should enter the region by around the 5 to 6 AM time frame. The trend should be for them to generally weaken as they approach but that said, some of them could still produce some gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall. This could bring a quick quarter to half inch or so of rain in spots.
Also, the timing of these shower/storms moving through right around first part of the morning will not be ideal for the morning commute.
The good news is that the precipitation will be moving through pretty quickly and be out of the area by around mid morning as it moves off the coast. Otherwise, the clouds will diminish by the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise quite a bit. Highs will be the warmest of the week, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s well north and west to the mid to upper 80s south away from the cooler waters. It will become breezy with southwest to west winds gusting 20-25 mph. Earlier it had looked like we could see some additional isolated storms in the afternoon but at this point it looks quite dry through the column so we keep afternoon POPs below 15 percent. That said, if something did manage to form it could produce gusty winds given inverted-V soundings.
As we head into Wednesday night, initial area of low pressure continues moving east off the coast of New England and out to sea.
This will push a weak cold front offshore through the evening.
Meanwhile by the overnight period the next wave of low pressure will be approaching as it moves eastward through the midwestern states and this will start to push the front back to the north as a warm front. Clouds will once again be on the increase by the late overnight and it's possible we could see some showers start to enter the region towards dawn, however the trend has been slower with these arriving later. Expect lows ranging from the 50s north to the low 60s south.
Thursday is still shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing additional rounds of showers and storms. What's worth noting though is that the model guidance continues to trend farther south with the track of this system...likely tracking the low east through Delmarva or perhaps even slightly to the south of here. This should tend to limit the threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon to Delmarva and perhaps extreme SE PA and southern NJ. Confidence on exactly where this threat sets up though is still not that high as there could be further changes to the track of the low. If it keeps trending farther south, this could keep the severe weather threat even south of Delmarva while a trend back to the north would allow the warm front to get farther north into PA and NJ leading to a more expansive severe threat. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has Delmarva in a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for Thursday with a narrow area of a MARGINAL risk north of here clipping SE PA and southern NJ. One thing to point out though is that both speed and directional shear will be quite strong near the track of the low so if there is enough instability that makes it into the area, all threats will be on the table...Damaging winds, large hail, and even the potential for a tornado or two. The clouds and showers/storms will keep it cooler for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s.
SHORT TERM /Thursday NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night although any severe weather threat should diminish through the nighttime hours with the loss of daytime heating.
On Friday surface, our earlier low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 70 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives by Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 40 to 60 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.
Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer and drier as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Through Wednesday...Showers with the risk of embedded thunderstorms arrives west to east around the 9-12z time frame. These should be weakening with time though and it's possible little in the way of precip occurs near the coast at ACY. Generally expect lowering cigs and visbys though through around 11-12z with most sites seeing conditions go to MVFR with IFR to even LIFR likely at MIV and ACY.
Showers/storms should quickly move out by around mid morning with improvement to VFR at this time. Southerly winds around 5 knots through 12z becoming SW to west through Wednesday at 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence overall.
Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with winds becoming light and variable.
Thursday...Additional rounds of shower/storms likely along with lowering cigs and visbys down at least MVFR at times. Winds generally east around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub- VFR conditions.
MARINE
Through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. Some fog overnight, especially off the coast of southern NJ and DE, before dissipating Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives this evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide this evening for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for these areas.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is probable for these areas with the high tide cycle Wednesday night.
Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 250 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure tracks by to our north early this morning.
This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with additional upper level disturbances tracking through the area this weekend. A warmer, drier pattern looks to return early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH Thursday/
250 AM...As of early this morning a warm front associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes was lifting north of the region. Meanwhile, an area of showers/storms closer to the center of the low and ahead of the system's cold front was approaching from western PA. Some of these have been strong to severe given the strong shear and forcing associated with the environment despite ML CAPE only being around 500 to 1000 j/kg. There has also been some mist, fog, and areas of low stratus that have developed across the region as we get into the warm sector of the approaching system with light southerly winds.
As we go through the latter part of the overnight into Wednesday morning, showers/storms move eastward and should enter the region by around the 5 to 6 AM time frame. The trend should be for them to generally weaken as they approach but that said, some of them could still produce some gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall. This could bring a quick quarter to half inch or so of rain in spots.
Also, the timing of these shower/storms moving through right around first part of the morning will not be ideal for the morning commute.
The good news is that the precipitation will be moving through pretty quickly and be out of the area by around mid morning as it moves off the coast. Otherwise, the clouds will diminish by the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise quite a bit. Highs will be the warmest of the week, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s well north and west to the mid to upper 80s south away from the cooler waters. It will become breezy with southwest to west winds gusting 20-25 mph. Earlier it had looked like we could see some additional isolated storms in the afternoon but at this point it looks quite dry through the column so we keep afternoon POPs below 15 percent. That said, if something did manage to form it could produce gusty winds given inverted-V soundings.
As we head into Wednesday night, initial area of low pressure continues moving east off the coast of New England and out to sea.
This will push a weak cold front offshore through the evening.
Meanwhile by the overnight period the next wave of low pressure will be approaching as it moves eastward through the midwestern states and this will start to push the front back to the north as a warm front. Clouds will once again be on the increase by the late overnight and it's possible we could see some showers start to enter the region towards dawn, however the trend has been slower with these arriving later. Expect lows ranging from the 50s north to the low 60s south.
Thursday is still shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing additional rounds of showers and storms. What's worth noting though is that the model guidance continues to trend farther south with the track of this system...likely tracking the low east through Delmarva or perhaps even slightly to the south of here. This should tend to limit the threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon to Delmarva and perhaps extreme SE PA and southern NJ. Confidence on exactly where this threat sets up though is still not that high as there could be further changes to the track of the low. If it keeps trending farther south, this could keep the severe weather threat even south of Delmarva while a trend back to the north would allow the warm front to get farther north into PA and NJ leading to a more expansive severe threat. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has Delmarva in a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for Thursday with a narrow area of a MARGINAL risk north of here clipping SE PA and southern NJ. One thing to point out though is that both speed and directional shear will be quite strong near the track of the low so if there is enough instability that makes it into the area, all threats will be on the table...Damaging winds, large hail, and even the potential for a tornado or two. The clouds and showers/storms will keep it cooler for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s.
SHORT TERM /Thursday NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night although any severe weather threat should diminish through the nighttime hours with the loss of daytime heating.
On Friday surface, our earlier low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 70 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives by Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 40 to 60 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.
Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer and drier as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Through Wednesday...Showers with the risk of embedded thunderstorms arrives west to east around the 9-12z time frame. These should be weakening with time though and it's possible little in the way of precip occurs near the coast at ACY. Generally expect lowering cigs and visbys though through around 11-12z with most sites seeing conditions go to MVFR with IFR to even LIFR likely at MIV and ACY.
Showers/storms should quickly move out by around mid morning with improvement to VFR at this time. Southerly winds around 5 knots through 12z becoming SW to west through Wednesday at 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence overall.
Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with winds becoming light and variable.
Thursday...Additional rounds of shower/storms likely along with lowering cigs and visbys down at least MVFR at times. Winds generally east around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub- VFR conditions.
MARINE
Through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. Some fog overnight, especially off the coast of southern NJ and DE, before dissipating Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives this evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide this evening for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for these areas.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is probable for these areas with the high tide cycle Wednesday night.
Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 6 mi | 54 min | S 6G | 65°F | 62°F | 29.72 | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 17 mi | 34 min | S 7.8G | 59°F | 57°F | 3 ft | 29.70 | |
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 19 mi | 54 min | S 9.9G | 64°F | 29.70 | |||
| MHRN6 | 20 mi | 54 min | SSW 5.1G | |||||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 22 mi | 54 min | 67°F | 57°F | 29.64 | |||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 33 mi | 54 min | SSE 6G | 62°F | 29.70 | |||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 38 mi | 39 min | S 5.8 | 60°F | 29.67 | 56°F | ||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 42 mi | 54 min | S 4.1G | 65°F | 63°F | 29.71 | ||
| 44091 | 44 mi | 28 min | 55°F | 3 ft | ||||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 46 mi | 34 min | S 9.7G | 55°F | 54°F | 3 ft | 29.72 | 55°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBLM MONMOUTH EXECUTIVE,NJ | 14 sm | 27 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.71 | |
| KLDJ LINDEN,NJ | 20 sm | 28 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 59°F | 73% | 29.69 | |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 22 sm | 32 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.70 | |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 22 sm | 27 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 57°F | 73% | 29.70 | |
| KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ | 23 sm | 32 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 29.68 |
Tide / Current for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey, Tide feet
The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:38 AM EDT -2.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EDT 1.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:49 PM EDT -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:10 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT 2.41 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:38 AM EDT -2.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EDT 1.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:49 PM EDT -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:10 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT 2.41 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.8 |
| 1 am |
| -2.4 |
| 2 am |
| -2.5 |
| 3 am |
| -2.1 |
| 4 am |
| -1.4 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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