Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM   Moonset 1:30 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 627 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning - .
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning. Vsby less than 1 nm this morning. Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 627 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front this afternoon. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KPHI 021035 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 635 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves through tonight, with high pressure building in for the end of the week. A weakening cold front approaches on Saturday, stalling out on Sunday. The front lingers through early part of next week, before lifting north as a warm front by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Fog and stratus overspreading much of New Jersey and into portions of southeast Pennsylvania. This should lift and dissipate later this morning. There may be some patchy dense fog, but do not think it is widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory.

Otherwise, one area of high pressure lies offshore, and is resulting in an onshore flow. Another area of high pressure lies over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, and a warm front lies in between these two systems. That warm front lifts north through the region shortly after sunrise, and fog and low clouds will scatter out through the morning.

Unseasonably warm air spreads into the region today under mostly sunny to sunny skies, at least away from the coast. Clouds may persist right along the coasts and at the beaches, where it will be much cooler compared to inland. Highs will generally top off in the mid to upper 80s, possibly touching 90 in some spots for most of the region, and highs will be in the 70s in the mountains and along the coasts.

A cold front approaches from the west and passes through the region this evening. No precipitation is expected with its passage. Winds turn go the north this evening, then eventually to the northeast, then east tonight. Temperatures tonight will not be much cooler compared to this morning, but surface dew points will begin to drop as drier air filters in from the north.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Dry conditions will persist for Friday as an upper level ridge slides overhead. A little bit of a tricky high temperature forecast for Friday though as high pressure over New England will result in an onshore flow and a backdoor cold front setting up near the I-95 corridor. Still some uncertainty where exactly this boundary sets up, but temperatures west of the front (primarily the Lehigh Valley) will get into the 70s, with upper 50s/60s near and east of the backdoor front. Temperatures on Friday Night will fall into the upper 40s/low 50s.

For Saturday, upper level ridging and high pressure begin to move offshore. A cold front will slowly move across Pennsylvania with some showers moving in ahead of it. The bulk of the rain will come for the back half of the weekend, but a small chance (15-25%) of showers are expected west of the I-95 corridor for Saturday.
Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and cool with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weakening cold front approaches on Saturday night with numerous shortwaves moving over the region through Sunday. A solid push of moisture works in from the southwest as well and PWATs climb into the 1.3-1.5 in. range which is around the 90th percentile for early May. Periods of rain are expected for Sunday, some of which could be heavy at times. Not overly concerned at the moment with flooding given dry antecedent conditions however. Instability is lacking overall as well, so the threat for thunderstorms is rather low.
Temperatures will hover in the 60s, with lower 70s in lower Delmarva.

The early and middle portions of next week look rather unsettled, though not expecting any significant impacts at this time. A stalled boundary looks to set up over the southern portion of the region with several waves of low pressure riding along the stationary front. High pressure nudging in from the northwest could limit shower activity, depending on how much influence it has over the region. Temperatures Monday/Tuesday will hover near/slightly above seasonal levels for early May, with mid to upper 70s expected. That boundary looks to eventually lift north as a warm front by midweek and we should return to the 80s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR/LIFR CIGs and some LIFR VSBYs are in place across most of the terminals this morning. Improvements to VFR expected by 14Z. VFR at KRDG/KABE. LGT/VRB winds, becoming SW 5 to 10 kt this morning, then W 10 to 15 kt with 18 to 23 kt gusts this afternoon. Winds turn N 5 to 10 kt prior to 00Z.
Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR, though restrictions possible at KACY/KMIV late tonight. NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday Night...Primarily VFR, though sub-VFR conditions possible (30-50%) later in the day at KMIV/KACY with marine stratus working in.

Saturday through Saturday Night...sub-VFR conditions possible (30- 50%) with CIG restrictions. Slight chance (15-25%) of showers for the I-95 and Lehigh Valley terminals.

Sunday through Monday...sub-VFR conditions likely (60-80%) with periods of rain.

MARINE
Will go ahead and issue a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the New Jersey ocean waters until 1 pm, as VSBYs on the waters are down to less than 1 NM. There should be improvements by this afternoon.

Otherwise, sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight. SW winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, then winds turn N around 10 kt tonight.
Seas will average 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.

Sunday...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet on the ocean.

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions on tap for today under sunny skies.
Minimum RH values will drop to 25 to 35 percent across the region this afternoon due to the combination of highs in the mid to upper 80s and surface dew points in the mid and upper 40s in the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley, and in the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with 20 mph gusts this afternoon. While a wetting rainfall occurred on Tuesday across the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and northern New Jersey, remaining areas of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delmarva have not experienced a wetting rainfall in well over a week now. This will result in some concerns for wildfire spread today. Coordination will be needed with our fire weather partners to determine if any products will be needed to highlight this potential threat.

CLIMATE
Near record breaking high temperatures are expected today. Records for our climate sites are listed below:

Record High Temperatures May 2 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 90/2001 AC Airport (ACY) 91/2018 AC Marina (55N) 85/1913 Georgetown (GED) 90/2018 Mount Pocono (MPO) 83/1913 Philadelphia (PHL) 89/2010 Reading (RDG) 89/1899 Trenton (TTN) 88/2010 & 2018 Wilmington (ILG) 90/1894

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>453.

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New Brunswick
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Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:23 AM EDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:08 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
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New Brunswick, New Jersey, Tide feet

Old Bridge
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:41 AM EDT     5.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
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Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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