Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 5:17 AM   Moonset 7:52 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 738 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 738 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving north of the area Wednesday. Another low pressure approaches along a frontal boundary south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across Sunday.

FXUS61 KPHI 072258 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 658 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure tracks by to the north later tonight into Wednesday. This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with additional upper level disturbances tracking through the area this weekend. A warmer, drier pattern looks to return early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 650 PM, a sea breeze continues to march inland across interior New Jersey and will cross I-95 from Philadelphia northward before dissipating. A collection of cumulus will dissipate through the remainder of the evening with the loss of daytime heating, however a band of thicker high level clouds are rapidly overspreading our region. A few showers continue across portions of our Delmarva zones and these have produced highly localized heavy rain. A shower or sprinkles may occur from Berks County southeastward to Burlington County before the aforementioned cumulus dissipate. Cloud tops have been low enough across Delmarva and therefore given the lack of lightning, issued an update earlier to remove the thunder. Some stratus and/or fog is along and off the Delaware Beaches, and some of this should expand northward and inland some through the night.
Adjusted the hourly temperature, dew point, wind and sky grids to account for the latest observations and trends.

Otherwise, low pressure pivots around the Great Lakes. As the associated warm front reaches the area, showers will commence. The heaviest and most widespread will be north of Philadelphia. We can't rule out a rumble of thunder, though instability is relatively meager. Rainfall amounts up to a third of an inch are anticipated.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

For Wednesday, the showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) associated with the warm front will be moving out in the morning. For most of us, it will be the first part of the morning. Clouds will diminish in the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise quite a bit.
Wednesday's highs will be the warmest of the week, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s well north and west to the mid to upper 80s south away from the cooler waters. It will become breezy with southwest to west winds gusting 20-25 mph.

There could be some isolated afternoon showers/storms developing, however the forcing for ascent is weak and this should limit the coverage. The model forecast soundings do show a well mixed boundary layer developing in the afternoon (inverted-V signature), and this could result in an isolated gusty thunderstorm.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A fairly busy/active weather pattern persists across the area through the short term period.

For Wednesday night, one low pressure system moves out to sea as it passes east of New England with a new low starting to move into the midwestern states. This will eventually push a warm front towards the area by Thursday morning which could start to bring in some showers/storms towards sunrise across eastern PA and Delmarva.

Thursday is shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing more widespread showers and storms. That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system which will have implications both on the high temperatures and the severe weather threat. Model consensus maintains a low tracking eastward near Delmarva which would limit how far north the warm front gets. Deep layer shear will be quite strong meaning anywhere near and south of the warm front will have a heightened severe weather threat Thursday afternoon into the evening but right now the most favored area looks to be over Delmarva and southern NJ. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal and Slight Risk for severe weather across this region. This could change, however, if the system and its warm front tracks farther north. Currently expect highs Thursday ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s north to the mid/upper 70s south but again, this is contingent on the track of the low. With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night although any severe weather threat should diminish through the nighttime hours with the loss of daytime heating.

On Friday surface, our earlier low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 70 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives by Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 40 to 60 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.

Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer and drier as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR conditions lower to MVFR/IFR overnight as areas of low clouds and patchy fog develop. Some showers expected after 06z with the most widespread mainly north of KPHL. Southeast to southwest winds 4-8 knots becoming mostly light and variable. Low confidence in the timing and extent of the sub-VFR conditions.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning as showers end, then improving to VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Southwest to west winds increasing to 8-12 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Low confidence on how fast conditions improve in the morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub-VFR conditions. More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Tonight and Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. Some fog develops tonight before dissipating Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives this evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide this evening for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for these areas.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is probable for these areas with the high tide cycle Wednesday night.

Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-104-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

New Brunswick, Raritan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Philadelphia, PA,