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FXUS61 KPBZ 290803 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 403 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperature is expected through the week while precipitation chances will be mainly focused on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Well above normal highs again today. Some climate sites may approach record readings.
- Dry with plenty of sunshine.
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Eastern CONUS ridge will remain entrenched over the region today as an upper level low lifts toward the western Great Lakes. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any convection, keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for plenty of sunshine. Near to record high temperatures are possible at all climate sites.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high min temperature Tuesday is possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

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Ridge axis will shift eastward tonight and Tuesday as a shortwave trough will push the dome of high pressure toward the east coast. An increase in cirrus clouds tonight should keep overnight lows warm. Near to record high minimum temperature at most climate sites could result.

Upper level trough will weaken as it slowly crosses the region on Tuesday. This loss in amplitude will result in a slower crossing of a weak surface cold front. Shortwave trough movement will dictate rainfall timing with the trends continuing to slow the progression of the showers. This would result in rainfall chances continuing into Tuesday night. Any severe threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It still appears that the severe threat will be limited given excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft.

Height rises are likely to return on Wednesday, promoting dry conditions and well above normal temperatures.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with above-average temperatures favored.

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Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into Saturday).

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High confidence VFR will prevail through the TAF period under a lingering ridge. Southerly wind remains light overnight generally out of the southeast. Gusts increase to 15-20 knots, highest at ZZV in closest proximity to a 25-30 knot low level jet, late Monday morning as winds back southwesterly. Diurnal cu will develop in the afternoon with SCT cloud bases >5 kft.

Cirrus coverage will thicken and slowly lower after sunset Monday as upper moisture advects in from the west ahead of an approaching shortwave and cold front.

Outlook
Restrictions will likely return in showers and possible thunderstorms on Tuesday with a crossing cold front as probability for MVFR CIGs jumps to 60-80% Tuesday morning. VFR then returns Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure.

CLIMATE
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record High Year Record Low Year Pittsburgh 88 (1899) 65 (1974)
Wheeling 86* (1942) 64 (1914)
Morgantown 91 (1899) 67 (1914)
New Philadelphia 90 (1986) 64 (1974)
Zanesville 90 (1899) 67 (1914)
Dubois 80* (1970) 61* (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

Record Low Year Pittsburgh 69 (1899)
Wheeling 58* (1911)
Morgantown 66 (1910)
New Philadelphia 63 (1991)
Zanesville 69 (1910)
Dubois 60* (1970)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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