Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South River, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:50 AM EDT (10:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 619 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 619 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will remain nearly stationary just south of the area today and tonight. Low pressure passes just south tonight. This frontal boundary will be in the vicinity Sunday as high pressure builds to the north. The high drifts off the northern new england coast Sunday as a wave of low pressure approaches Monday, passing Tuesday. High pressure will follow late Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South River , NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220823
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
423 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A very warm and humid air mass will remain over the area through
this weekend and possibly into Monday. Meanwhile, low pressure
along a roughly west to east frontal boundary will result in
periods of showers and thunderstorms. By Tuesday, high pressure
will build over the area bringing somewhat milder and drier
conditions through through the middle of next week. A seasonally
strong cold front may cross the area later in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Concerns for today include temperatures heat and then potential
for severe weather.

First, storms continue to develop progress through
central southern delaware, delaware bay, and far southeast new
jersey early this morning in an environment characterized by
mucapes > 2000 j kg, pws near or above 2 inches, and substantial
isentropic lift in the low levels downstream of a weak
perturbation in the southern mid-atlantic. Rain rates have been
impressive with the strongest storms (1-3 inches per hour), with
totals exceeding 0.5-1.0 inch(es) in portions of central
delaware. Storms are not moving very quickly, so accumulations
greater than an inch are likely in southeastern cumberland and
cape may counties during the next hour or so. Storms should move
offshore after 6 am or so. Wind gusts, so far, have reached
30-35 mph with the strongest cores, and this should likely be
the case for the rest of the night.

Meanwhile, the forecast today has been updated to reflect latest
thinking on timing of convection moving through during the late
afternoon. Hi-res guidance is beginning to converge on the most
favorable timing generally after 3 pm from west to east across
the area. The 00z NAM nest is hinting at the potential for
multiple rounds of convection, with perhaps another convective
complex this evening. This increases hydro concerns,
particularly given the troubling high QPF output from the nam
nest (and nam), rap, ukmet, and cmc. Don't think this is flood
watch material (yet), but with more convection expected later
this weekend ... Think the concerns will increase with time.

Would not be surprised to see a few flooding issues this
afternoon tonight as well, though this may be more of the
urban poor-drainage variety, for the most part.

Chance of severe storms today is certainly present. Forecast
soundings show 2000+ MLCAPE and deep-layer shear of 30+ kts this
afternoon, with effective shear approaching exceeding 40 kts by
early evening. With moist midlevels and a well-mixed boundary
layer this afternoon, wet microburst potential is present, with
cold-pool organization likely given degree of instability shear.

Shear looks to increase this evening, so the potential will be
present for embedded mesovortices within any convective
lines clusters that develop. Think the risk of severe is high
enough for inclusion in the grids at this point.

Regarding temperatures, statistical guidance is generally in the
90-94 range for kphl today, with dew points around 70 during max
heating. With uncertainty regarding maximum heating from
approaching cloud cover, there is simply not enough confidence
to justify issuing another heat advisory or excessive heat
warning. The best potential appears to be for the delmarva
peninsula, but even here, forecast heat indices look to be
around or just below yesterday's values... Which were shy of
advisory criteria. Nevertheless, it will be uncomfortable again
outside, and heat stress from prolonged outdoor exposure or
strenuous activity is possible.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Low-confidence forecast overnight with potential for a round or
two of storms in a moderately unstable environment. With
adequate shear for severe storms, mention of this potential
remains through the early morning hours. However, with the first
round of convection likely to move through during the early
evening, there is some question as to what occurs thereafter. If
another convective complex enters the region, threat of heavy
rainfall (with some suggestion of this in most model output
currently) will be elevated, especially north of the mason-dixon
line (as a weak surface boundary slowly lifts northward).

However, there is a decent chance there will be too much
stabilization with the first round of storms to support
additional convection. Decreased pops after midnight but did not
eliminate them anywhere given the uncertainty.

With a slow-moving boundary, midlevel flow oriented parallel to
it, very high pws (2+ inches, generally), and potential for
training upwind propagation effects, locally excessive rainfall
is possible. Too much uncertainty exists for a flood watch at
this time, especially given the relatively dry antecedent
conditions. Nevertheless, some local instances of poor-
drainage urban flooding are probable and isolated flash flooding
is possible.

Temperature forecast very uncertain given likely impacts from
precipitation. Large errors in the hourly forecast should be
anticipated if when convection passes through, and low
temperatures may be augmented by rain-cooled air. Currently have
lows just below values observed this morning.

Long term Sunday through Friday
This long term section has not had the opportunity to develop
confidence on the forecast scenario. Was working the thunderstorms
the that produced at least 1.5" of rain in parts of CAPE may
county and reports of gusts near 30 kt early this morning.

500mb: a -1sd short wave in the great lakes region Sunday morning
crosses nys and new england Monday with a short wave ridge to follow
Tuesday-Wednesday before short waves carve out a -1sd trough over
quebec and new england next Thursday - Friday.

Temperatures: the first 21 days of the month were averaging about a
degree above normal near mount pocono to about 2.5 degrees above
normal elsewhere except almost 5 degrees above normal vicinity
georgetown de. Overall, expect an above normal month of july
temperature wise, despite a cool down to near normal next week.

Calendar day averages: should be 3 to 7 degrees above normal
Sunday and Monday then near normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
several degrees above normal next Thursday and possibly Friday.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of the 00z 21 GFS nam MOS was applied
Sunday-Monday, then 00z 21 GFS mex MOS Monday night and Tuesday
before relying heavily on the 05z 21 wpc d4-8 elements for
Tuesday night- Friday. Exception: pops were basically continuity
from yesterdays 330pm mount holly forecast through day 5, then
wpc pops days 6-7.

The dailies...

Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. A quasi-stationary east-west
frontal boundary is expected across our area. Low pressure along the
front will favor low-level convergence and areas of showers and
thunderstorms. Pwat values near 1.75 inches north and over 2 inches
delmarva with 2400j mlc just to our west will support some heavy
downpours and possible flooding. Also SPC has a slight risk of
severe for Sunday. Timing is tricky.

Monday... Partly sunny, very warm and still a bit humid (dewpoints
upper 60s to mid 70s) with 1100j of mlc. Svr potential. A cfp
should generate scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms?
Tuesday and Wednesday... Should be relatively pleasant with ridging
aloft and surface high pressure moving across the area. The high is
associated with a somewhat cooler and drier air mass. Partly to
mostly sunny Tuesday with a light northeast wind and partly to
mostly sunny Wednesday with a southeast wind.

Wednesday night... Looks like some low-level warm advection develops
and the forecast carries a chance of showers at that time. South
wind.

Thursday... Partly sunny. Chance of rain increases on Thursday as
another shortwave and associated cold front approach from the
northwest. Mlc increases to 2300j vicinity i95 and dewpoints are
near 70. Small chc of svr... Timing dependent. Southwest wind shifts
to northwest at night.

Friday... Uncertainty and followed wpc.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
For the 06z tafs...VFR through the morning, except for
potential temporary visibility restrictions at kmiv kacy
through 12z. Clouds increase through the day, but CIGS should
remainVFR outside convection. Storms expected to move east
through the area late this afternoon into early evening, with
timing generally between 21z and 03z. More storms are possible
thereafter, but confidence is low. Additionally, sub-vfr
cigs vsbys may develop after storms move through, though
confidence is too low at this point for TAF mention. Expect
frequent updates to the TAF today as details become clearer.

There is potential for strong to severe storms today with gusty
to damaging downburst winds and torrential rainfall.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected, but
temporarily lower CIGS vsbys in scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected at times.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions with a light northeast
wind Tuesday becoming and then southeast Wednesday.

Marine
Storms will impact the southern new jersey and delaware coastal
waters, as well as delaware bay, early this morning. Wind gusts
around 30 kts or so can be expected with the strongest storms,
as well as frequent lightning and torrential downpours. More
storms are expected this afternoon and tonight, with a higher
chance of severe weather. Strong winds are likely with the
strongest storms. Keep a close eye on the weather today if
venturing to sea.

Outside of convection, winds should generally be under 15 kts
but may be quite variable. By this afternoon, some favoring of a
south direction is likely. After storms pass tonight, some
preference for a west or northwest wind may be observed. Seas
should be 2-4 feet through the period, with locally higher
winds seas near any thunderstorm.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday.

However winds and seas may be locally higher in scattered thunderstorms
over the waters from Sunday through Monday. Small chance of 5 foot
hazardous seas advisory Sunday evening.

Rip currents...

the 10-12 second dominant period has returned early this
morning, and there are indications that this will continue
through the day. As such, the rip current risk is expected to be
in the moderate category today, especially for the new jersey
coastal waters. The risk remains lower for the delaware coastal
waters.

Equipment
Dew point readings at kdov continue to measure too high
compared to surrounding locations and should be treated as
unrepresentative of the area.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Drag 422
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Drag 422
aviation... Cms drag 422
marine... Cms drag 422
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi50 min N 5.1 G 5.1 77°F 81°F1010.9 hPa (+0.5)
MHRN6 19 mi56 min N 8 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi50 min 79°F 77°F1011.6 hPa (-0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi50 min N 5.1 G 8 1012 hPa (-0.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi50 min 80°F 76°F1011.2 hPa (-0.0)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi50 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 83°F1012 hPa (-0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi60 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 75°F2 ft1011 hPa (+0.3)73°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 36 mi74 min 78°F 82°F1011.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi50 min S 4.1 G 4.1 75°F 75°F1011.3 hPa (+0.3)
44022 - Execution Rocks 46 mi35 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 70°F
BDSP1 49 mi50 min 81°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi54 minNW 310.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1012.1 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ22 mi59 minN 710.00 miOvercast78°F66°F69%1011.3 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ22 mi60 minNW 31.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F97%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW5--W6NW8W9NW7NW6W9W7W8W7W4CalmS3S4SW6S4SW5SW5SW3W3W3NW3
1 day agoSW5W5W6W5W5W6W7W9W6W9W10W5W4W4W13
G29
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2 days agoSW4S7SW7W66W9W5W96SW7S7S6SE7S7S5S6SW7SW7SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
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Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:36 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EDT     7.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
20.6-0.4-0.40.62.345.46.264.93.41.90.6-0.3-0.40.62.54.66.27.37.46.65.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:25 AM EDT     1.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:00 AM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:37 PM EDT     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.2-0.411.91.81.40.90-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.4-1.1-0.50.81.92.21.81.10.2-0.7-1.3-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.