Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:31 PM   Moonset 3:33 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1037 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in place through Monday. The high gradually slides farther out into the atlantic through midweek. A frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday night. The associated cold front approaches Thursday and moves across Thursday night.

FXUS61 KPHI 190551 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 151 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure moves offshore to our south today. High pressure then builds across our area through Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
While showers have mostly dissipated, widespread low clouds continue to shroud the area early this morning. Any breaks may allow fog to develop until after dawn, so keep patchy fog in the forecast and will be watching observations closely, but right now it looks pretty socked in with clouds so widespread dense fog is not looking likely.

Weak easterly flow to the southwest of high pressure centered over northern New England will keep the marine influence in place today, so while strong mid-May insolation should help clouds lift through the day, it may not get much better than partly sunny across much of the region by late this afternoon given the plentiful low-level moisture to work with. Towards the western flank of the marine layer, could even be a pop-up shower, most likely out in Berks County. The insolation and general lack of rain should allow most areas to pop back into the 70s, except near the shore.

Short-term guidance suggests a new push of marine clouds will move into the region tonight, so have another mostly cloudy forecast tonight. If clouds are less widespread, fog may become an issue, but for now have kept it patchy in the forecast. Lows mostly in the 50s again.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period will be focused mainly on the mid to upper level ridge that approaches and builds overhead through the period. At the surface, broad high pressure over New England will expand southwest and become elongated into the Appalachian region Monday. The high will sink south of the region on Monday night before moving offshore late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
During this period, dry conditions are expected with mostly sunny skies during the day and mostly clear skies at night.
There may also be some patchy fog at night. For now, best chances appear to be north and west of the I-95 corridor.

In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. For Tuesday, winds become more southerly as the high shifts offshore resulting in warmer temps being brought north. Generally looking at the upper 70s to low 80s for Tuesday. However, with rather light surface winds, this should allow a sea breeze circulation to develop each day, so do anticipate cooler temps closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary: Main focus through the long term is on a cold front which is expected to cross through the region Thursday into Thursday night bringing a chance for thunderstorms. High pressure will return in the wake of the front with another disturbance that approaches by next weekend.

Details:

Wednesday...Upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Wednesday.
Guidance has overall slowed to progression of the pre-frontal trough so Wednesday now appears to remain dry. Increasing clouds late with temperatures above average. Shower chances increase Wednesday night with a chance of thunder as the pre-frontal trough approaches.

Thursday...Guidance remains persistent with the timing of the cold front during the afternoon hours on Thursday. With the location of the mid and upper level trough over the Great Lakes, this keeps the better forcing north and west of the area.
However, with enough surface instability aided by diurnal heating, this should support at least scattered thunderstorm develop across the area. This is supported quite well by analog- based guidance. Cold front then moves offshore by Thursday night. Temps should be above average again, depending on timing of the cold front.

Friday and Saturday...The forecast for Friday and Saturday is quite uncertain and depends on how far the front makes it past our area. At this time, the 12Z/GFS is more aggressive with the progression of the front, bringing in high pressure into the area on Friday and most of Saturday. In comparison, the 12Z ECMWF is much slower with the progression of the front, keeping the front stalled over our area into next weekend with shower chances. For this reason, have used NBM guidance which keeps most of the area within a 20-30% chance of showers/thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today...MVFR through the morning with intervals of IFR likely either due to cigs dropping or patchy fog developing.
Cigs and vsby should rise to VFR this afternoon. Light easterly winds. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...MVFR cigs/vsby looking likely again with continued light easterly flow. IFR possible with any patchy fog or lower clouds. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR with mostly clear skies.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Sub-VFR possible especially on Thursday with a chance for thunderstorms.

MARINE
Conditions over the waters will be sub SCA through tonight with seas 3 to 4 feet. Northeast may gust to around 20 knots but stay below SCA levels.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are expected.
Fair weather expected through Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.

Rip Currents...

A prolonged period of N to NE winds at 10 to 15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph at night will continue on Sunday and Monday.
Along with 3 to 4 ft seas, this will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents Sunday and Monday at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
The rip current risk may be low for most of the day Monday for southern New Jersey beaches.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Sat -- 01:41 AM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:14 PM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:48 PM EDT     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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