Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:35 PM EST (21:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 639 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Snow and sleet late this morning and early afternoon. Rain this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 639 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres approaches today and tracks over the waters on Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front approaches on Sunday night then crosses the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 151859
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
159 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered in northern new england early this
morning will continue to slide to the east. Meanwhile, low
pressure will progress up the southeast coast today. The
strengthening low is forecast to move across the coastal waters
of the DELMARVA and new jersey tonight, reaching the coastal
waters of new england on Friday. High pressure is expected to
build into our region from the west for Saturday. A cold front
approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on
Saturday night with another cold front following late on Monday.

High pressure is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
145 pm update: have extended advisories for places that were
due to expire by mid afternoon... This includes extending
advisory for the philadelphia area until 6 pm. Changeover from
snow to sleet beginning to work into the area but will take
until this evening for much of this area to see a complete
change to rain.

1220 pm update: precipitation continues to overspread the
area... Falling as mainly snow through and north of the i-95
corridor with a wintry mix just to the south. Based on latest
trends in near term guidance and in collaboration with
surrounding offices we have upgraded to a winter storm warning
across our northern counties through carbon, monroe, northampton
counties in pa and warren, sussex, and morris counties in nj.

Snow amounts still look to be borderline as far as warning
criteria but based on impacts with sleet and freezing rain also
expected and since it's the first event of the year we felt
warning was warranted.

930 am update: leading edge of precipitation continues to
gradually advance northward at this time across the DELMARVA and
southern nj with the onset being just a bit slower than
expected due to a dry layer in the low levels. Still expect
precipitation should begin across the i-95 corridor from
wilmington to philadelphia within the next hour or two. Overall,
no major changes were made to the forecast at this time. We
delayed the onset slightly from philly northward and also
reduced hourly temps a bit and added some snow and sleet into
the forecast across parts of the DELMARVA and interior southern
nj where temps are running a bit cooler than forecast due to
evaporational cooling and there has been some snow and sleet.

Still expecting a change to rain in these areas though by early
this afternoon as E NE winds bring in milder air. No changes to
headlines or snow ice totals.

630 am update: precipitation continues to work its way
northward this morning. The dry air is taking a little bit of
time to erode but once the column has moistened enough we should
start to see some of the radar returns reach the ground.

Off to our south and east this morning, precipitation has been
starting off mostly as rain and then starts to mix with some
sleet as the column dynamically cools. Not a strong warm layer
present aloft this morning based on information on the 12z lwx
sounding so as the column continues to cool and steadier
precipitation moves into the area there may end up being a
burst of snow, which may result in a quick coating in some
areas. This may have an effect on the latter part of the morning
commute in DELMARVA but looks to move in later to the
philadelphia metro area.

Previous discussion:
a flood watch is in effect for portions of md, de, and nj from
10am through midnight tonight. No changes were made to the
winter weather advisory or wind advisory.

Early this morning, low pressure is located over the tennessee
valley with a second low located just off the georgia south
carolina coast. The interior low will move into the ohio valley
before being absorbed into the coastal low, which strengthens as
it moves up the carolina coast today and into the mid-atlantic
tonight moving up the new jersey coast overnight.

Above the surface, a strong upper level low located over the
midwestern states early this morning will move up through the
ohio valley tonight before lifting and opening into a deep
trough as it crosses our area late tonight.

Slowed down the onset of precipitation as dew points early this
morning area largely in the teens to lower 20s. It might take a
little bit of time to moisten the rather cold column and have
precip make it to the surface so feel that things will arrive a
little bit later than previously thought. Precip will move in
from south to north this morning, reaching DELMARVA during the
morning rush and then expanding northward through the day.

Northern portions of the forecast area may remain dry through
midday before starting to see precip arrive.

With that in mind, the colder, drier conditions this morning
should lead to more snow or snow sleet at the onset as temps are
more likely to cool as the column starts to moisten, with the
exceptions of southern DELMARVA and extreme southern new jersey
where dew points won't take as long to rise and the easterly
winds will help to keep more milder air in place.

This system is loaded with moisture and liquid precipitation
amounts around 1.5-2.0 inches still look likely. With how wet we
have been recently there is the potential for flooding to occur
across the region as moderate to heavy rainfall occurs, mainly
across southern and coastal new jersey and delmarva. More
information in the hydrology section below.

As the low tracks northward, warmer air surges northward and
into our area. This warming in the mid levels will at first
chance the snow over to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and or
freezing rain before changing completely over to plain rain. The
changeover will occur from south to north through the day,
although areas north and west of i-78 may remain more of a mix
until late tonight or early Friday morning.

Expect accumulating snow (2 to 5 inches with some locally
higher amounts around 6 inches possible through the poconos and
sussex county new jersey) mainly north and west of i-78 with
some lower amounts (less than an inch) possible down through the
i-95 corridor. Sleet potential across the northern counties
will cut down on snowfall amounts and we are not confident
enough that we will meet snow warning criteria in our area
(mainly carbon, monroe, and sussex) so will be sticking with
advisories for now.

Icing remains an issue, especially for areas along and north of
i-78 where one to two tenths of an inch of ice are expected.

Model soundings continue to show a period of moderate to heavy
precipitation occuring as the warm layer aloft settles across
the region. The surface remains cold and with warming mid levels
it is likely a period of heavy sleet or freezing rain will
occur. As the warm layer starts to deepen expect more freezing
rain to occur than sleet.

With the low tracking up right along the coast, there still
remains the potential for a break in precipitation, especially
across southern areas, late tonight into Friday.

Temperatures start off cold this morning but will warm through
the day as the warmer air advects int our forecast area. Expect
highs to occur late in the day, likely closer to midnight, as we
warm all day and night. Temps will rise into the upper 40s to
lower 50s across southern new jersey and DELMARVA with 30s to
around 40 expected through the i-95 corridor and points to the
north and west. Temps rise from the lower 20s to the upper 20s
across the poconos by late tonight.

Short term Friday
The coastal low will track into new england on Friday and then
off to the canadian maritimes Friday night.

Precipitation will end from south to north fairly quickly,
ending across the region by around midday. With the low located
over near long island, it wraps up, deepens, and quickly exits
to the northeast. As it pulls away it drags down some colder air
in the northwest flow and precipitation may change back over to
snow from rain before finally ending.

The northwest winds will remain gusty across the region but
should start to subside as we head towards Friday evening as the
pressure gradient finally starts to ease up a bit.

Temperatures on Friday will fell pretty cold with highs in the
40s across much of the region and mid to upper 30s across the
southern poconos.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Following our late week storm, it looks like we get into a
relatively quiet but cold weather pattern from Saturday through
Wednesday. A mid level long wave trough is anticipated to settle
over the eastern states.

Surface high pressure is forecast to nose up from the southwest
for Friday night and Saturday before a dry cold front arrives
from the northwest on Saturday night.

A second cold front is expected to reach our region late on
Monday. There may be some light snow and rain showers ahead of
the feature from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern
pennsylvania, and in northern and central new jersey. High
pressure should return for the middle of the new week.

The normal high temperatures for the period from Saturday
through Wednesday range from the middle 40s in the elevated
terrain of the poconos to the middle 50s on the coastal plain.

Readings are forecast to remain below normal each day.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions early this morning, lowering to ifr with
the arrival of precipitation during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. The precipitation will favor snow, sleet and
freezing rain at krdg and kabe. It should be snow and sleet
changing to rain at kttn, kpne, kphl and kilg. All rain is
anticipated for kmiv and kacy (perhaps a brief period of sleet
at the onset at kmiv). The rain will become heavy at times. East
to northeast wind increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to
30 or 35 knots.

Tonight... A wintry mix changing to rain at krdg and kmiv, and
all rain for our remaining six TAF sites. Ifr conditions.

Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 or 35 knots,
becoming northwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 knots
late tonight.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... MainlyVFR. West to northwest wind
5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night and Sunday... MainlyVFR. Variable wind 6 knots
or less.

Sunday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of light snow showers
around kabe. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Monday... MainlyVFR. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
A gale warning is in effect for all of our coastal waters and
the delaware bay for portions of today through Friday..

Northeast winds will pick up through this morning and continue
to increase through this afternoon. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots
will develop through this afternoon. Model soundings show the
potential for a brief period of storm force winds on the ocean
front tonight but confidence is not high enough to issue a storm
warning.

Northeast winds will continue through tonight before turning to
the southwest late tonight and then west-northwest through
Friday.

Seas will build through today reaching 6 to 12 feet by this
evening. Seas will continue to build overnight before starting
to subside on Friday, dropping down to 5 to 8 feet by later
Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night... West to northwest wind gusting to 25 or 30
knots.

Saturday through Monday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Hydrology
Precipitation will move in from south to north this morning
across delmarva. The heaviest precipitation is expected to fall
during the day and persist into early evening.

Highest QPF resides along the coast and up into the i-95
corridor. In general, we are expecting 1.00 to 2.00 inches of
liquid. It will stay all rain across the coastal plain, mixing
at the onset across and near the i-95 corridor. There will be
more of a longer duration wintry mix across the lehigh valley,
berks county, the southern poconos, and NW nj.

With that being said, a flood watch has been issued for
portions of new jersey, delaware, and maryland. While the
potential for flooding exists north of the watch, confidence
wasn't high enough at this time as some of the QPF that falls is
from frozen precipitation.

With it being wet recently, the ground remains saturated and
this will increase runoff. Further to the west of the current
watch, nuisance type flooding is to be expected, along with poor
drainage and low lying flooding occurring, as the precipitation
changes over to plain rain. Clogged drains due to leaves can
also exacerbate flooding this time of year.

As far as our river forecast points go, continue to monitor
pemberton in burlington county, pine brook on the passaic river
and blackwells mills on the millstone. The schuylkill and
delaware mainstems are not expected to flood.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong onshore flow will precede the passage of the coastal
storm today into tonight. This raises concerns for the
possibility of coastal flooding during this period. However,
there are two factors working against a more substantial coastal
flooding threat. The first is that we are between the new and
full moon phases, so the astronomical tides are fairly low. The
second is that the period of strong onshore flow will be fairly
brief (generally less than 24 hours).

Nevertheless, given the strength of the onshore winds, we are
somewhat concerned that forecast models are a little bit low on
tidal levels this afternoon through Friday. More concerning is
the variability in model output for the tidal levels during this
period, as the stevens institute ensembles indicate. With the
october 27 event as a recent guide, we will need to assess the
tidal gauge forecasts leading up to the event (including low
tides, in an effort to determine how much water recedes given
the opposing strong onshore flow, something that is not well
modeled in general). Though the current forecast has no
advisory-level flooding at any of the forecast tidal gauges in
our CWA during the tonight Friday high tides, we cannot rule
out the possibility of at least spotty minor flooding,
particularly in northern central new jersey and primarily for
tonight's high tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for paz054-055-062.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for paz103-
105-106.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for paz070-
071-101-102-104.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Friday for paz060-061.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for njz001-007-008.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for njz009-
010-012-015.

Flood watch until midnight est tonight for njz013-014-020>027.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
njz013-020>022-027.

Wind advisory until 3 am est Friday for njz013-014-020-026-027.

Wind advisory until 11 pm est this evening for njz022>025.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
njz016>019.

De... Flood watch until midnight est tonight for dez002>004.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
dez002.

Wind advisory until 11 pm est this evening for dez003-004.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for dez001.

Md... Flood watch until midnight est tonight for mdz012-015-019-020.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz012-015.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for mdz008.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm est Friday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Fitzsimmons meola
short term... Meola
long term... Iovino
aviation... Iovino
marine... Iovino meola
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi36 min E 8 G 15 32°F 44°F1023.6 hPa (-5.4)
MHRN6 27 mi36 min NNE 9.9 G 12
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi36 min 33°F 49°F1026.1 hPa (-3.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi60 min NE 8.9 G 14 33°F 44°F1023.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi36 min ENE 13 G 19 33°F 50°F1026.8 hPa (-3.9)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi36 min NE 15 G 18 33°F 1026.8 hPa (-3.6)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi36 min 33°F 52°F1026.2 hPa (-3.6)
BDSP1 40 mi36 min 32°F 46°F1022 hPa (-6.6)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi36 min 32°F 44°F1021.2 hPa (-6.5)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi26 min E 21 G 29 41°F 55°F1024.9 hPa39°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi43 minNE 100.25 miSnow Freezing Fog29°F28°F96%1024.8 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi43 minNE 101.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F92%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N5N6N6N5N3N3N3N3N4CalmCalmNE5NE3NE4NE6NE56NE6E55NE5NE10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW3N4N4N4N44N6NW5N6NW10N7NW10NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:40 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EST     1.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:51 PM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.54.64.23.42.621.71.61.92.73.74.55.15.24.9432.21.51.111.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:58 AM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EST     1.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:09 PM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.44.64.33.62.72.11.81.61.82.53.44.34.95.254.23.22.31.71.211.42.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.