Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ten Mile Run, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 719 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Friday through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening and overnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming E around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 719 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves across the waters into this evening, followed late tonight by a cold front. High pressure returns Friday and Friday night, sliding south of long island Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ten Mile Run, NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.42, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 232233
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
633 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will follow
for Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system will affect the area
late Saturday through Sunday, with a frontal boundary likely
stalling near or over us on Sunday. By Monday, that front should
move to our south, and high pressure should build in for Monday and
into Tuesday. An additional frontal system will likely approach the
region towards the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled for all
counties as the strong to severe storms have moved out of the
area.

Model guidance continues to indicate another round of showers
and thunderstorms later this evening into the first half of the
overnight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Although the
showers and thunderstorms from earlier diminish instability
across the area, CAPE values are expected to build again ahead
of the approaching cold front. This could once again lead to a
period of strong to a few severe thunderstorms later this
evening and into the first half of the overnight period, mainly
between 9 pm and 1 am.

Once any showers and storms move offshore, there is a potential
for some fog to develop, primarily for areas that may get heavy
rain this afternoon.

With the cold front arriving during the later half of the night, we
may not see much difference with temperatures overnight. Currently
we are forecasting low temperatures from the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the region.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
A pleasant day is on tap tomorrow as the ridge builds to our west.

Northwesterly flow is expected over our region through the day. The
pressure gradient may be slow to decrease behind the cold front, so
gusts to 25 mph are possible through the day. In the wake of the
cold front, highs should be in the 60s and 70s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Overview...

the beat GOES on. No appreciable large scale changes are expected in
the coming week regarding the upper air pattern over the conus. Day-
to-day wiggles aside, this remains a remarkably persistent pattern
of an anomalous deep western us trough and an equally stubborn
southeast us ridge. It follows that our sensible surface weather
will be more of the same. This means temperatures generally near to
above normal thanks to our position on the northern edge of the
ridge, along with occasional shower and storm threats due to frontal
passages as storm systems continue to track out of the middle of the
country, which continues to be battered by severe storms and
flooding. One possible difference for us this period is that we may
get more in the way of "hot" as opposed to "warm" weather. The
persistent southeast ridge will lead to the development of a very
hot air mass to our south; record highs are likely across the
southeast in the days ahead. So while the overall pattern isn't
changing, the air that gets advected in on any southerly flow will
be hotter than it has been previously. Climatology helping here as
well as we approach the start of june. So many areas may see their
first 90 degree day next week. Other than that, the main forecast
challenge is simply timing out the frontal disturbances, always
tricky in a pattern like this, and determining whether any of them
have a better chance for heavy rain or strong storm potential.

Dailies...

Friday night-Saturday... High pressure firmly in control this period
as we sit in between weather systems. Dry and seasonable Friday
night, and again during the day on Saturday although with dry air
and the development of some WAA we'll likely warm a little above
normal Saturday. WAA will be associated with a warm front passing
near and north of us, with any shower activity expected to remain to
our north. So looks to be a very nice day Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday night... This period will feature a couple of
shower and storm chances as low pressure tracks off well to our
northwest over ontario on Saturday night. A frontal boundary (i
hesitate to call it a cold front) will approach by Saturday evening
and overnight. The front will likely stall over us for Sunday as it
takes on a more west-to-east orientation. This will bring a shower
and storm threat Saturday night and again on Sunday afternoon and
evening. In both cases, the activity will probably be most
widespread across the western half of the cwa. Saturday night's
activity looks to be fairly benign; SPC has scaled back the slight
risk area for Saturday and expect upstream storms to be weakening as
they move through here with loss of surface heating. A few strong
storms could be possible Sunday in our southwestern zones, although
dynamic forcing is not very impressive that day. So probably more in
the way of garden variety activity. Very warm temperatures expected
Sunday; mid to upper 80s in most places.

Monday-Monday night... Most indications right now are that Monday
should be a dry day with high pressure building in as the surface
front drops far enough south to remove the shower and storm threat.

This should mean offshore flow (save for a possible coastal sea
breeze) and lower dew points, so it looks like another warm day,
with temperatures getting back into the low 80s. Dry weather likely
to hold at least through the first half of Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... This period looks a little unsettled, and right
now it is near impossible to time out in terms of when the better
shower and storm chances are. Given the relentless onslaught of
upstream convection, models will not be able to accurately assess
precipitation chances downstream over our area. Most of the 23.12z
guidance has generally trended towards drier outcomes for this
period, but it is likely there will be plenty of back and forth in
the coming days with frontal positionings. Following the general
theme of a shower or storm threat every 2 or 3 days, the middle
portion of this period may stand the greatest chance for rain. But
at this stage, went with frequent use of slight chance or low end
chance pops with refinement to come in later days. Temperatures
should remain mostly above average, and as mentioned in the overview
one or two of these days could be quite hot. In particular, if most
of this period does end up drier, we could easily see a day or two
into the 90s. Went with a blended approach, but even that is giving
out some rather high MAX temperature values.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... The first round of showers and thunderstorms have
moved offshore. However, another round of showers or
thunderstorms is possible later this evening into the first half
of the overnight. Have only kept vcsh for now as there is large
uncertainty on whether or not they will occur.

Once any storms move off shore between 03 and 06z, expect
mostlyVFR conditions. There is a chance for localized br to
develop, especially for any locations that have heavy rain this
evening. For now, i'm not confident where that will be, so have
kept it out of the tafs for now. Winds will be shifting from
southwesterly to westerly by 06z. After 06z, expect a shift to
northwesterly behind the cold front. High confidence on most
aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for
br.

Friday...VFR conditions are expected. Northwesterly winds may gust
as high as 25 kt during the day.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday... VFR. Winds gradually shifting from north to
east to south at around 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday night-Sunday night... Prevailing conditions expected to be
vfr, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will lead to localized
restrictions. Winds gradually shifting from south-southwesterly to
northwesterly but remaining at generally 5 to 10 kt.

Monday-Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
Marginal small craft advisory conditions will continue on the
atlantic coastal waters into late tonight. Expect a lull in
conditions Friday morning. There may be a brief period of wind gusts
to 25 kt Friday afternoon, primarily for near shore locations.

Outlook...

Friday night-Monday... Winds and seas are expected to remain mostly
below SCA criteria through the period. Southerly winds Saturday
night may gust to near 25 kt. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft. A chance of
showers or thunderstorms from Saturday night through Sunday night.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
on the new jersey shore and delaware beaches through this
evening. The moderate risk may continue into Friday.

Equipment
Kdix is back online. The test phase has ended, all repairs have been
completed, and the radar is operating normally. We extend our thanks
to the team of local and national technicians who have worked
tirelessly to complete these extensive repairs.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Johnson robertson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'brien
aviation... Johnson o'brien robertson
marine... Johnson o'brien
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 22 mi40 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 65°F1013.4 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi40 min S 6 G 9.9
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi58 min S 5.1 G 6 71°F 66°F1013 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi40 min 67°F 62°F1013 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi40 min S 9.9 G 11 65°F 66°F1014.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi40 min S 14 G 17 63°F 1012.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi40 min 67°F 59°F1013.4 hPa
BDSP1 40 mi40 min 72°F 67°F1013.1 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi40 min 73°F 65°F1012.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi24 min S 14 G 18 60°F 58°F1013.3 hPa58°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
S6
G10
S6
S5
SW3
G7
SW5
G8
S5
G8
S3
SW3
S5
S4
SE1
NE2
SE5
S6
SW4
G8
SW8
G13
SW8
G11
S7
G11
SW8
G11
SW8
G11
W6
S4
SW5
G8
SW3
1 day
ago
N7
G11
N6
G9
N6
G10
N4
G7
NW4
NW2
N3
N3
N3
N3
N1
N2
N3
G6
N4
N3
G7
N5
G8
E6
W4
SW4
N4
G7
W4
SW1
S2
SW2
2 days
ago
NW4
G11
NW4
NW6
NW2
NW8
G13
N5
G13
N5
G9
NW7
G11
NW8
G11
NW7
N7
G11
N9
G13
N8
G17
N10
G16
NW14
NW7
G16
N6
G14
N8
G17
NW11
G21
NW9
G16
N10
G14
NW8
G11
N9
G12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ15 mi41 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds71°F64°F79%1012.4 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ16 mi41 minS 610.00 miFair70°F64°F84%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S4S5S10
G16
S9SW7CalmS6S43
1 day ago6N6NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW34N7--NW434CalmW3S3Calm
2 days agoCalm3Calm3N9NW6CalmNW10
G14
NW7NW10
G16
NW6
G15
NW6
G16
NW11
G23
N10
G19
N13
G19
N12
G19
N10
G18
N11
G20
NW9
G19
NW8
G17
NW14
G25
NW12
G18
N11
G22
NW12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
New Brunswick
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM EDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT     5.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
6.46.15.23.82.51.30.50.312.13.44.355.24.73.82.81.91.31.21.72.84.15.1

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Old Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     6.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:03 PM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
6.36.25.44.22.81.60.70.30.71.83.14.14.85.24.9432.11.41.11.52.53.74.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.