Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cliffwood Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:18PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:40 AM EDT (10:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 331 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog early this morning. Chance of rain early. Areas of drizzle. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne in the afternoon...then becoming s. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening...then becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon and evening...then 1 ft or less after midnight. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 331 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will move N of the waters today. Weak low pressure approaches Tue...followed by a cold front Tue night. High pressure builds in Wed and Thu. Another low pressure system approaches Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cliffwood Beach, NJ
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location: 40.43, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 270923
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
523 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift through the tri-state region
today. A cold front with a wave of low pressure passes through
the region Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for
Wednesday and Thursday, and shifts offshore Thursday night. A
low pressure system approaches from the central united states
Thursday night and impacts the region Friday and Saturday. High
pressure returns for Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Drizzle will continue this morning, with increasing lift
allowing for areas of steady rain to develop. Radar returns are
already showing this rain west of the hudson river. It will be
difficult to clear out this afternoon behind the front, with
significant moisture at or below 4000 ft depicted by the models.

This will keep the area from warming up to MAX potential, and
therefore limiting instability. Regardless, there could be
enough support from the upper jet to produce some showers this
afternoon into the early evening after the frontal passage. A
broad model consensus was used for temperatures today, with an
emphasis given to the raw model output.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Convergence aloft in the dry layer does not seem conducive to
much rainfall tonight. As a result, only low chances for rain
were included in the forecast. If rain does develop, it may turn
out to be mainly sprinkles or light drizzle. Surprisingly big
differences exist between the NAM and GFS for Tuesday. The nam
holds off on the deep lift, and therefore the bulk of the rain,
for the entire day. The GFS brings in rain by morning. The ecmwf
supports the nam, by keeping the bulk of the rain with the main
shortwave. The GFS appears to be kicking off convection over
pennsylvania that brings residual energy in. The forecast sides
with the drier solutions, although there may be some showers or
pockets of light rain with weak vorticity advection and a moist
airmass. A blend of the models was used for temperatures.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
A southern stream shortwave over the oklahoma and kansas area
this Monday morning will weaken and track to the mid atlantic
coast Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a northern
stream longwave trough moving through south central canada moves
east and passes into northern new england Tuesday night. There
is still some differences in whether or not the two systems will
phase, with consensus for the south stream to be more
progressive and remain separate, and farther south than other
models, while dampening and exiting the mid atlantic. The
southern movement will keep an associated warm front to the
south. This southern and separate solution has been the trend
the last several runs. With higher confidence in precipitation
affecting the area, mainly the southern half of the cwa, will
have likely probabilities Tuesday night.

A northwest flow will persist across the region as surface
high pressure builds to the north and the upper northern stream
trough moves slowly off the northeast coast through Thursday
night. The surface high weakens Thursday night as another
southern stream shortwave approaches, however the upper ridge is
holding with the axis shifting east of the area Friday. The
southern stream system will also be weakening as the wave tracks
east. Have brought in chances late Thursday night into Friday
and this may be too quick if the ridge holds. The weakening low
will re develop off the mid atlantic coast Saturday with chances
of precipitation remaining into Saturday night. Cold air will
be in place across the northern tier and some of the
precipitation may fall as snow or a rain snow mix.

Weak high pressure returns for Sunday into Monday.

Aviation /09z Monday through Friday/
Low-level ridge continues to weaken and gives way to an
approaching warm front to the south for late this morning. This
front will lift slowly through during the late morning/early
afternoon hours, possibly washing out across or just north of
the area.

Lower ceilings, drizzle, and fog continue to work in from the
sw. Conditions have generally lowered through the overnight
with widespread lifr at most terminals leading up to the morning
push.

Ifr conditions could last through much of the period, especially
to the north and east of the nyc terminals due to the
uncertainty with the timing and final placement of the warm
front. Tafs have been updated to show llws for most terminals
for the mid to late morning. Moderate confidence in improving
visibilities and ceilings from 18z to 22z across most terminals,
before lowering ceilings and visibilities again for Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 11 mi41 min E 8.9 G 13 40°F 41°F1020.1 hPa (-2.2)
MHRN6 15 mi41 min ENE 8 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi41 min 39°F 42°F1020.9 hPa (-2.2)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi41 min NE 8 G 8.9 38°F 1021.6 hPa (-1.8)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi41 min 39°F 41°F1021 hPa (-2.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 28 mi51 min ENE 12 G 14 41°F 42°F5 ft1020.9 hPa (-2.2)41°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi41 min E 2.9 G 5.1 41°F 43°F1020.4 hPa (-2.3)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi41 min Calm G 4.1 38°F 39°F1021.1 hPa (-2.4)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi65 min 41°F 43°F1020 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE8
G14
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G19
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W11
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N4
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G9
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G16
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G13
SE13
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E7
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NE11
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SW11
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G17
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SW14
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SW8
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G17
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G15
SW7
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NW3
SW11
SW14
N2
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SW6
W8
G11
NW9
NW10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi45 minENE 60.50 miLight Rain Fog41°F41°F100%1021.4 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi50 minN 50.50 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist39°F37°F96%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
G20
NE11NE13
G20
NE13E12
G17
NE11
G17
E10--NE13
G16
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G19
E12E12E8E13NE10E11E9NE10NE8NE10NE8NE8NE7E6
1 day agoSW9SW8SW7NW5SW5W4NW6N4E6NE9NE10E10
G17
E12E10NE8E10E10E10E9
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NE10NE16
G22
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2 days agoS6S7S8
G15
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G19
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SW9SW12
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G17
SW9SW4CalmS6SW7--SW9SW10SW8
G15
W10

Tide / Current Tables for Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Matawan Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:11 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:32 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.1-0.4-0.11.12.84.45.55.95.54.42.91.40.2-0.5-0.60.42.13.95.25.95.853.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:08 AM EDT     2.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     2.31 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.3-0.70.31.62.21.91.30.5-0.4-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.5-1-0.21.12.12.21.60.7-0.2-1-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.