Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cliffwood Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:59PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 10:11 PM EDT (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 1:19AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 713 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 713 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late Friday night and Saturday morning. The front settles to the south through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cliffwood Beach, NJ
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location: 40.43, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200003
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
803 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces
through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday
night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late
Friday night into Saturday morning. The front settles just to
the south into early next week as strong high pressure builds to
the north. A slow moving frontal system will move towards the
region the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Low level winds have shifted more to the east northeast early
this evening, and with the loss of heating, the stratus that was
east of the region has begun to drift westward. Also, a low
level inversion remains in place. Skies have become broken to
overcast across southeastern connecticut and eastern long
island, and sky cover was adjusted for this. This stratus may
remain into early Thursday morning. However, the main question
will be how far west the stratus reaches.

Lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s. A mav met ecs
blend was used for overnight lows.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday morning will start off with cloudy or mostly cloudy
skies as stratus remains over the region. The cloud should start
to dissipate by mid morning as drier air moves into the region,
however we could still be looking at a partly cloudy day,
especially across the western half of the region as high clouds
start moving into the region as a cold front approaches from the
west.

As a cold front approaches Thursday night, clouds will once a
again increase. Despite the cloud cover will go with a dry
forecast through the short term, thinking that any precipitation
will hold off til Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the lower and middle
70s, while lows Thursday night fall into the 50s and 60s.

Forecast guidance was in good agreement with temperatures and
used a blend of the mav met and ecs.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents
at atlantic ocean beaches through Thursday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Generally a zonal upper flow expected through early next week
between southeastern us ridging transitioning to bermuda ridging,
and a hudson bay upper low sliding into eastern canada. Good
agreement between models in a pac shortwave rotating through this
flow through the great lakes on Friday and then the northeast
us Friday night.

At the surface, decent agreement with a frontal system approaching
the region on Friday in response to this shortwave. Instability and
winds fields suggest an organized line of convection developing
across western ny pa and tracking eastward in the afternoon. Timing
of lagging shortwave forcing front indicate that this line would not
make it into the region till the overnight hours. With waning
instability and lagging forcing, it is questionable how far eastward
into the region any strong to damaging wind threat would maintain as
strong shear wind could lead to an outflow dominant transition. At
this point, areas n&w of nyc would have a marginal risk for some
strong to damaging winds gusts if this line arrives in the evening,
with a diminishing threat as it approaches the deepening stable
layer near the coast.

Thereafter, a fall type airmass likely for the weekend into early
next week as the cold front settles just to the south and canadian
high pressure builds into new england. With close proximity to
stalled boundary and under periphery of the ridge upper jet, could
be looking at mid and high clouds streaming across the region
through the weekend. Perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers
possible across southern portions of the tri-state if the boundary
stalls close enough, but otherwise dry. Then a gradually
increasing chance for stratus and shower development Monday or
Monday night with approach of the next frontal system.

Then a good signal for a return to a moist tropical environment for
mid to late week as troughing begins to amplify into the central us,
and bermuda ridging remains stubborn. A slow approaching frontal
system will bring potential for rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
particularly across the interior, during this time along with a warm
and unseasonably humid airmass.

Aviation 23z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure remains over the region.

MVFR tonight. Uncertainty surrounds whether or not there will be
tempo or longer periods ofVFR through the night. Better
chances forVFR appear to be east of the city.

Se winds becoming generally NE under 10 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 11 mi42 min SE 6 G 8.9 70°F 75°F1018.2 hPa
MHRN6 15 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi42 min 71°F 75°F1016.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 12 71°F 1017.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi42 min 71°F 75°F1017.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 28 mi52 min E 14 G 18 70°F 73°F1016.2 hPa65°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi42 min S 4.1 G 6 71°F 71°F1016.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi42 min SSW 7 G 8.9 71°F 74°F1017.8 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi42 min S 3.9 G 5.8 74°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi96 min SE 6 G 8.9 73°F 71°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi16 minE 410.00 miOvercast70°F66°F87%1017.8 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi21 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F84%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW5NW5--NW4NW6W3W5NW6NW8N8N9N7NE9NE10E8E7E7E6E7E6E6E8E4
1 day agoSE7S10
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W9W4CalmN12N7
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2 days agoCalmSE4CalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmE3E4E5SE7E85SE7S10
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.