Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 9:14 AM   Moonset 12:24 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1155 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered showers, mainly early. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Wed - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

ANZ300 1155 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weakening frontal system will remain to the west this afternoon as weak high pressure remains over the area through Sunday night. A warm front will pass to the north on Monday. High pressure will move offshore on Tuesday, with low pressure approaching from the west. The low will pass to the south Wednesday into Thursday.

FXUS61 KOKX 121720 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 120 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weakening frontal system will remain to the west this afternoon as weak high pressure remains over the area through Sunday night.
A warm front will pass to the north on Monday. High pressure will move offshore on Tuesday, with low pressure approaching from the west. The low will pass to the south Wednesday into Thursday.
Weak high pressure will then follow going into Friday before another low approaches for the start of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Band of steady light rain across the NYC metro area is slowly weakening. This band delivered a swath of 1/4 to 1/2 inch so far from Staten Island through Essex/Union counties, and much lesser amounts to the east and mostly dry across central/eastern portions of S CT and Long Island. Disturbed Cu field seen on vis satellite where there had been BINOVC across parts of S CT, also in parts of the lower Hudson Valley. Showers have developed ahead of schedule near Meriden, and expect additional development in/near the aforementioned areas as a shortwave trough dives down the back side of a departing upper low moving E of New England to provide lift along with sfc convergence invof a weak boundary across S CT. Fcst soundings still look stable enough to preclude mention of thunder.

High temps limited to the A fairly deep shortwave trough passing over today will limit highs to the mid 50s in most places. Some spots across interior SE CT may approach 60.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Added isolated/sct evening showers to a good portion of S CT and also to the forks of Long Island as the aforementioned shortwave trough moves across. Otherwise, heights aloft will rise tonight as the closed low continues departing to the east, with dry conditions throughout overnight. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.

A ridge will continue to build on Monday leading to noticeably warmer weather compared to Sunday with highs in the lower/mid 60 to the east with onshore flow, and western inland areas in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm front will also be skirting the area to the north, extending from a low in Canada. This warm front could lead to a few showers. Confidence in the showers occurring though, is low due to the ridging aloft and surface high working against them. PW around 1-1.2" will be in place, though.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
From the analysis of some large scale deterministic weather prediction forecast models, the following features are noted.

In the mid levels, the local area appears to be in between a trough and a ridge. The trough is over SE Canada and the ridge is southeast of the area, based in the Atlantic. The ridge moves farther east Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trough moving in. The center of the trough moves across either Wednesday night or Thursday. There are model differences resolving this feature.

For Thursday night through Friday night, the local area is shown to be in between troughs in the mid levels, with some brief ridging. Next trough moves in for the start of next weekend.

At the surface, a warm front moves farther north of the area Tuesday with low pressure developing along a cold front to the west. There are multiple areas of low pressure developing along this front. Eventually, there is one main low that is forecast to move south of Long Island Wednesday and then farther out into the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. There are model differences in their depiction of the low and its translational speed.

Chances for rain showers increase Tuesday, with rain showers expected to be widespread across the area by Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Chances for rain showers remain for Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain showers Thursday. Rain could be moderate to possibly heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday. With colder air aloft and some elevated instability potentially, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms. Just left the thunderstorms as slight chance in terms of their probability.

By Thursday night and Friday, high pressure starts to build in from the north and east, which will maintain mainly dry conditions through much of Friday night.

The next low provides the next chances for rain starting out next weekend.

Temperatures in the daytime look to average above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, close to normal Thursday and Friday, and below normal again next Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure returns this afternoon. The high remains overhead tonight before pushing offshore on Monday.

Mainly MVFR to start with VFR across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The light rain will continue to diminish through 19z although there could be an isolated shower across Southern CT this afternoon. Improvement to VFR is likely 19-21z with VFR prevailing through Monday at most terminals. The only exception is at HPN where some brief IFR or LIFR is possible late tonight into early Monday morning.

Light S-SE winds will become SSW-SW late this afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will be less than 10 kt. Winds diminish tonight, becoming light and/or variable. SW winds increase after 12z Monday, becoming S in the afternoon 10-15 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by 1-2 hours this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon near the coast.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast late.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast in the evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. E-NE wind gusts 15-20kt.

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR possible. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Sunday. Ocean seas Monday evening/early night may briefly touch 5 ft before dropping back down to 4 ft.

Longer term, initially below SCA conditions expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, SCA conditions become probable Wednesday into Wednesday night which could very well linger into Thursday, especially on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY
Rainfall close to to 1/2 inch today noted across Staten Island and nearby portions of urban NE NJ. No hydrologic impacts expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Matawan Creek
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Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:12 PM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:56 AM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:27 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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