Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keyport, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:03 AM EST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 343 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Snow and sleet late this morning and early afternoon. Rain this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 343 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres approaches today and tracks over the waters on Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front approaches on Sunday night then crosses the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keyport , NJ
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location: 40.44, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 150935
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
435 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A coastal storm will impact the region into Friday. High
pressure builds in from the ohio valley over the weekend. A cold
front will likely approach from the great lakes Sunday night
into Monday. High pressure settles across the area Tuesday and
through the middle of the week.

Near term through tonight
At 4 am, a 1012 low was analyzed just off the ga coast, with a
1038 high over vt. The low will track up the coast today as the
high drifts towards the maritimes. The low tracks over or just
off long island Fri mrng, then is past CAPE cod by Fri aftn. The
00z model runs are tightly clustered around this soln.

The main challenge is how much snow accumulates before the
changeover to a mix, and how much ice occurs before the complete
changeover to rain. This fcst is banking on a fairly rapid
displacement of the cold air aloft as indicated by the nam,
which has a good track record with this kind of sys. With all of
the model solns similar with the track, this lends confidence
in the NAM thermal progs.

No changes to the winter wx advy was made based on this latest
fcst. Snow amounts were increased generally across the board,
with some isold 6 inch amounts possible in orange, putnam and
passaic counties. For fzra, this type of fcst runs the risk
that the timing in not completely precise, but there is some
padding included in the headlines. Around a quarter inch of ice
accretion fcst for portions of the interior. Storm total snow
and ice graphics are posted.

With ely flow around 070 degrees developing, it is expected that
the bl will warm sufficiently along the coasts to limit the fzra
threat. As a result, no icing has been fcst ATTM for LI and nyc.

Should winds not behave as fcst and back to the n, perhaps due
to the influence of a developing cstl front, a period of icing
would be possible in nyc and portions of wrn LI early this eve.

Wind speeds have been increased in the fcst as well. 50kt are
evident blw 2k ft in the nam. The other modeling is weaker, so
for now a wind advy was not issued. Gusts however have been
increased to 45 mph at the coasts. Peak winds are tngt, although
another burst is possible early Fri as the storm exits.

Short term Friday
As the low pulls away fri, there may be another burst of snow on
the back end as the upr low tracks thru and the column cools
rapidly. Convective pcpn is suggested by the models. The primary
area of concern for this is orange county, perhaps into putnam.

The advy was extended until 10 am in orange county because of
this potential burst, where a quick inch or so could accumulate
over already icy areas.

For all areas, a quick increase in nwly winds is expected after
the passage of the low. Borderline advy lvl. For now, wind gusts
are up to 45 mph in the fcst.

Temps are expected to fall thru the day as the colder air spills
in behind the low.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Dry and quiet weather Friday night and into the weekend as high
pressure builds into the area from the ohio valley. Temperatures
will be below normal through the weekend with highs ranging between
the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows ranging between the upper 20s to
low 30s. A cold front then moves across the area from the great
lakes bringing scattered snow showers Sunday night into Monday with
dry weather returning as high pressure builds back into the region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures for Monday and through the
middle of the week will remain below normal.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
High pressure to the north gives way to low pressure that approaches
from the south late today and tonight.

Vfr conditions this morning with ene at 10 kt.

Conditions then lower quickly to MVFR, then ifr, this afternoon as
precipitation overspreads the terminals area between 18-20z. For the
city and coastal terminals, other than initial burst of snow at
onset, precipitation should generally begin as a snow sleet mix
before changing to a mix of rain and sleet, then ultimately to all
rain. This transition will occur fastest at the city and long island
terminals, where all rain is expected by about 00z. For the lower
hudson valley terminals, precipitation is expected to begin as snow
before transitioning first to a mix of snow and sleet, then to a
period of freezing rain between 22-02z. Frozen freezing
precipitation will linger the longest at kswf, which has the
potential to see an 8-12 hour period of freezing rain beginning
tonight and lasting into Friday morning.

Ene winds will become gusty late this afternoon into the overnight
hours, with gusts of 35 kts at coastal terminals and gusts of 25-35
kts elsewhere. Gusts should begin to subside briefly towards 12z as
winds begin to shift back to the nw.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 10 mi33 min NE 9.9 G 15 32°F 47°F1036.7 hPa
MHRN6 14 mi33 min NNE 8 G 11
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 14 mi33 min 32°F 48°F1035.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 17 mi33 min ENE 8.9 G 15 31°F 1036.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 21 mi33 min 32°F 51°F1035.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi23 min NE 12 G 19 34°F 55°F1035.5 hPa22°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi33 min ENE 6 G 8.9 31°F 51°F1036.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi33 min NE 4.1 G 6 32°F 45°F1035.2 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi48 min N 12 G 18 52°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi87 min ENE 5.1 G 7 32°F 45°F1035 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 48 mi63 min NE 12 G 16 31°F 1 ft

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi67 minNNE 610.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1035.9 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi72 minNE 910.00 miOvercast31°F15°F52%1036 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW9NW11
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--NW10NW16
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1 day agoNE4E5E6N3W7NW10NW11
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2 days agoCalmSW3CalmCalmW3SW5S6S6S5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4NE3N4NE4NE4E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Keyport, New Jersey
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Keyport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:05 AM EST     4.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:16 PM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:59 PM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.13.93.32.521.61.41.62.133.74.34.64.53.932.21.51.10.91.21.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:00 AM EST     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:01 AM EST     1.30 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:33 PM EST     1.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.3-0.3-1-1.3-1-0.4-0.10.30.91.310.60.3-0.3-1-1.4-1.3-0.8-0.4-00.61.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.