Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:05 AM   Moonset 1:28 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 318 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 318 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high pressure building down the new england coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 021938 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high pressure building down the New England coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front approaches for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front will finally pass through coastal areas early this evening, shunting any lingering low clouds/patchy fog along the coast offshore. Behind it, ridging builds in both aloft and at the surface through Friday. The surface high will build down from eastern Canada and along the New England coast during this time. As it does, NE winds will strengthen a bit tonight along with some low-level moisture working back in from along the New England coast. This will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies to move in from the NE for the second half of the night, but this should be short-lived as some drier mixes into the area on Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten, Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday, while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and 75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Generally VFR across all terminals through the TAF period. However, there may still be some brief IFR or MVFR ceilings along the immediate coastal portions of Long Island this evening as a stubborn stratus deck remains in close proximity to coastal areas. Also, later tonight and early on Friday additional stratus may work its way back off the coastal waters. Best timing for stratus late tonight is 10-14z Friday and have included a Tempo group across eastern terminals but this may change depending on the extent of the marine layer overnight. Stratus is not expected to be as widespread as previous nights.

Winds will shift to the west this evening 10-15kt with gusts to 20 kt possible, even across coastal areas. Gusts diminish overnight.
W winds will shift to N/NE and then E by Friday morning less than 10 kt. SE winds are expected by midday on Friday around 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely for timing of wind shifts and associated wind speed.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18z Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Patchy fog could linger into early this evening for portions of the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, but this should be short lived as northerly winds bring in drier air behind a cold front. NE winds behind the cold front later this evening increase 10-15 kt by morning with gusts below 25 kt. Winds will then gradually diminish on Friday. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Keyport
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Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
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Keyport, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Thu -- 12:04 AM EDT     1.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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