Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 1:57 AM   Moonset 11:37 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KPBZ 011147 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 747 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
The remainder of the work week will be dry and warm. A slight cool down is expected this weekend with returning rain chances.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and mostly sunny today under building high pressure.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Update focused on adjusting fog coverage for the next few hours, as well as tweaks to hourly temps and dewpoints. Full sun and the onset of mixing will dissipate fog by 14Z. Otherwise, warm and dry weather is in store today with a weak upper ridge building overhead. Temperatures climb to around 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies and light winds.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue through Thursday.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue tonight into Thursday. A weak front pushes into the area from the northwest overnight but only brings a wind shift as convection will struggle to develop given the lack of moisture and ascent beneath the upper ridge. Temperatures settle into the 50s by early Thursday morning before climbing back into the 80s (upper 70s north of I-80) Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern returns Friday through the weekend with above-average temperatures and periods of showers and thunderstorms favored.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will continue to support above-normal temps and dry conditions Thursday night with lows ranging from upper 50s south of I-80 to low 50s farther north.

Ensembles continue to indicate a more active weather pattern setting up Friday into the weekend as an upper level trough pushes eastward over the Great Lakes, shunting the ridge axis southeastward and bringing a deep-layer southwest flow to the region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon through the weekend, though exact timing and intensity of any given round of convection remains uncertain due to the complex nature of the more active pattern. The latest ensemble runs continue to paint Friday night and Saturday as the most likely periods to see widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, though there also continues to be some signal for scattered convection lingering through Sunday and even into early next week.

At this time, a widespread severe weather threat appears unlikely due to a lack of notable instability or bulk shear. The same can be said about the threat for a widespread flood threat, as ensemble probabilities for widespread rainfall amounts of an inch or greater remain low (30% or less) across the area during any given 24-hour period this weekend. That said, heavier rain rates in thunderstorms could result in a localized minor flood threat for low-lying and urban areas. For this reason, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across eastern OH, western PA, and northern WV on Saturday. Stay tuned for more details on timing and impacts as we get closer to the weekend.

As for temperatures, Friday continues to look like the warmest day of the week, with highs potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of the area. Ensembles guidance continues to indicate a 70% or greater chance of exceeding 85 degrees for areas south of I-80. Temperatures Saturday through Monday also trend above normal, but remain in the 70s due to thickening cloud cover and an increasing coverage of showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Areas of LIFR fog and stratus were in place at 1130Z, with terminal impacts at LBE, HLG, and MGW, generally where previous hi-res model guidance depicted it. With full sun and daytime mixing commencing, VFR conditions will return between now and 14Z, with southwest wind of around 10 knots forecast by late morning.

VFR conditions are then forecast to persist through the remainder of the forecast period, with only patches of mid and upper cloud expected. A repeat fog performance tonight is currently not expected according to current guidance. Even 5 mile visibility has less than a 20 percent chance of occurrence according to both HRRR and NBM guidance.

Outlook
VFR conditions are expected to continue into Thursday under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions comes late Friday into early Saturday with passing low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Pittsburgh, PA,