Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:31 PM   Moonset 2:34 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 559 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers early this morning, then slight chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon. Chance of showers late. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers. Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 559 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure spins south of the area before slowly pulling away to the southeast this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. High pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 160957 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 557 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure spins south of the area before slowly pulling away to the southeast this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. High pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains generally on track with showers continuing for Long Island and Southern Connecticut. Otherwise, updated the temperatures and dew points to reflect the most recent observations.

Low pressure continues to spin south of Long Island allowing for continued areas of generally light rain in the area through the day. As the low begins to pull southeast offshore during the afternoon, widespread rain should become more showery in nature and gradually shift south while diminishing in intensity. Despite this, an additional inch is possible in some portions of southern Connecticut. Locations to the west may stay dry much of the day. Winds will remain N/NE through much of the day at 10-20 mph with localized gusts up to 30 mph. Highs today will be in the low to middle 60s for much of the area, though some western areas may rise into the upper 60s, still 5-10 degrees below average.

The low pressure continues to make its progression back offshore to the southeast tonight, allowing any showers to move with it. Some low level moisture may allow for some pockets of drizzle or a stray shower, especially along the coast but largely the area will remain dry tonight. High pressure noses in from the northeast. Lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure slides into the area from the north and northeast in response to developing shortwave ridging over the area, as the low pushes further offshore. This will result in generally dry conditions on Friday with temperatures climbing back up to seasonable values, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The next system approaches from the west into Friday night and early Saturday, bringing with it a low chance for showers approaching from the west into early Saturday morning. Most global models show the frontal system slowly weakening as it approaches the area with high pressure fighting to remain overhead. A more robust low pressure system looks to develop well to the southeast and push offshore Saturday into Saturday night. Though there will remain a low chance of showers for western areas, the trend in models to suppress the system to the south has allowed for a drier forecast to take hold. Despite the main energy shifting south, high pressure will allow for a persistent NE/E wind over the area, keeping the region cooler than average through the weekend under mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*Key Points*

*A drier trend in the pattern for the weekend.

*Below normal temperatures to start the period with a gradual warm up to near or slightly above normal by mid next week.

By Monday into Tuesday, model divergence continues as the more progressive EC takes the low to the northeast and out of the region while the GFS maintains a more cutoff solution and meanders the surface low off the NC coast. Weak ridging builds in thereafter, with a shortwave and low pressure system approaching from the west late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure just south of Long Island early this morning will initially be stationary before beginning to track slowly south late this morning. The low will weaken and continue to track south through tonight, while high pressure builds in from the north.

Mainly light rain and/or drizzle is expected this morning, then dissipating in coverage this afternoon. KSWF will be mainly dry, but could see spotty light rain/drizzle. Looking for a persistence forecast the next 18-24h with ceilings mainly MVFR for NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley, and IFR/MVFR for the eastern terminals.

N-NE winds early this morning will be strongest with G25-30kt along the coast and 20-25kt elsewhere. Winds will be slow to diminish through the day.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ceilings may vary between IFR and low end MVFR this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, mainly Saturday night and Sunday. SE winds G15-20kt on Sunday.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Low pressure south of the area will allow SCA conditions to persist for all waters today with gusts upwards of 30 kt and seas on the ocean 7-10 feet. Gusts taper off tonight but seas remain elevated on the ocean above SCA thresholds through much of the day on Friday.

Sub SCA conditions are likely thereafter into Monday.

HYDROLOGY
An additional 1-2" remain possible in southern Connecticut as a low pressure system spins south of the area. While no widespread flooding is expected, poor drainage or nuisance flooding may occur in any heavier or steadier rainfall this morning.

There are no hydrologic concerns from Thursday afternoon onward.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Keansburg
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Thu -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:51 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:40 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:20 PM EDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Keansburg, Waackaack Creek, New Jersey, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:56 PM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots

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