Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laurence Harbor, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 11:11 AM EDT (15:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 9:18PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1009 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely...mainly in the morning.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1009 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks out to sea today. High pressure build in on Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the central states will impact the region Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure will build in on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurence Harbor, NJ
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location: 40.45, -74.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 291323
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
923 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region
through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving through the ohio
valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast
Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure
will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach
our region on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Low pressure south and east of montauk point will continue to
drift out to sea today as high pressure over hudson's bay builds
east. The pressure gradient tightens up a bit this morning, and
with slight caa, can expect NW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to
25 mph this morning. Winds abate by late morning/early
afternoon as gradient relaxes.

Clouds over eastern and southern nj, and down into de will
continue to scatter out, and mostly sunny skies will develop
across the whole CWA by late morning/early afternoon.

Max temps in the mid 40s in the poconos, and in the low 50s
across northern nj. Otherwise, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
across central/southern nj, SE pa, and in the low to mid 60s in
md/de.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
Clear or mostly clear skies, a few fragments of sc in the early
eve and possibly a little cirrus. Some radiational cooling
expected. Light north wind. Normal or slightly below normal
mins.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance. Applied
minor 1-2f cooler than guidance adjustments in our 330 am fcst
for tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
The primary players during the long term will be two southern
stream systems that are expected to impact our region in the
Friday-Saturday and Tuesday time frames.

The first system may produce 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across
portions of the region, especially in the delaware valley. While
there could be some urban and poor drainage flooding, we do not
expect any major impacts on rivers and streams. There is also a
consistent signal in the models for mixed precip north of i-80,
with sleet and freezing rain the primary concerns, during the
Friday night and Saturday morning period. We have mentioned this
in the hwo.

Looking ahead to early next week, the next system is expected to
bring more precip to our region Monday night into Tuesday. This
setup looks warmer, given the absence of high latitude blocking,
and would favor predominantly rain.

Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR CIGS across eastern/southern nj, mainly at
kmiv/kacy, will becomeVFR by 14-15z. Otherwise,VFR. Sct clouds
at 3500 ft possible this afternoon.

Nw winds around 15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts this morning,
diminishing to 10-15 kt by late afternoon.

Tonight...VFR with fragments of sc in the evening and maybe some
thin cirrus at times. Light north wind.

Outlook...

predominantlyVFR, except MVFR possible Friday into Saturday.

Marine
Ocnl 25 kt gusts possible until 11 am or so on the ocean waters
this morning, but 25 kt gusts should not be frequent enough or
widespread enough to warrant a sca.

Sca may be needed for anz450-51 (nnj tonight).

Elsewhere... Gusty north wind through the night to around 20-22
kt.

Outlook...

sca likely Friday into Saturday, with the potential for gale
force southeasterly wind gusts Friday night, mainly across the
northern nj waters. Otherwise, sub-sca.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through
the week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor
tidal flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases
late in the week. This is a result of a low pressure system
bringing a prolonged period of onshore flow. The tide of most
concern at this point is the high tide on Friday evening/late
Friday night. By this tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to
1.0 feet to reach minor flooding thresholds, which is possible
but still uncertain (it will be dependent on how quickly the on
shore flow develops and how strong it will be by then). At least
one source of guidance shows water levels reaching minor tidal
flooding thresholds with the Thursday evening/night high tide,
but that seems unlikely as the latest forecast depicts onshore
flow either developing right around or just after the time of
that high tide.

We have mentioned the potential of minor flooding along the
northern nj coast in the hwo, where the threat is greatest
during the Friday evening/late Friday night high tide cycle.

Climate
Mo avg temps
march dep feb dep
abe 38.0 -1.1 39.2 +8.5
acy 41.6 -0.6 43.0 +7.7
ilg 41.7 -1.3 43.1 +8.0
phl 42.2 -1.3 44.2 +8.5
this march will be a below normal month for temps... . One of
the very few the last two years.

We appreciate that this is possibly old news, but march temperatures
will average colder than the feb average at all 4 long term climate
locations. The last time this occurred, 1984.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Mps
short term... Drag
long term... Franck
aviation... Drag/franck/mps
marine... Drag/franck
tides/coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 14 mi42 min NW 11 G 14
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi42 min NNW 13 G 17 46°F 42°F1017.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi42 min 46°F 43°F1018.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi42 min NNW 14 G 18 46°F 1018.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi42 min 47°F 42°F1018.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi82 min NNW 16 G 18 45°F 42°F3 ft1017.8 hPa (+2.0)38°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi42 min N 8 G 14 49°F 44°F1019.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi42 min 12 G 14 44°F 40°F1018.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi42 min NNW 5.1 G 12 48°F 44°F1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi21 minNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F37°F59%1018.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi16 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast48°F37°F66%1019.7 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi19 minNNW 910.00 miFair51°F33°F50%1019 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NW6N4NE11NE7N5N12NE8N11N8NE6N6N7N6N5N4N9N15N9N14
G24
N15N10N13NW10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW8SW6SW7W8SW5W4CalmN6NE4NE4NE3NE4N7E4N9N7NE4NE6NE6NE6NE7
2 days ago5E7NE7E8NE6NE8E6E6E7NE7E8E6NE6NE6NE7NE6NE5NE5N5N54CalmN6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:52 AM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:46 AM EDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:05 PM EDT     6.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.620.6-0.5-0.8-0.21.43.34.95.86.15.442.40.8-0.3-0.9-0.4134.866.46.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:25 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     2.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     2.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.50.82.22.51.80.8-0-0.8-1.5-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.70.41.92.62.11.10.2-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.