Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plumsteadville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:06 PM EST (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:08PMMoonset 11:42PM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over the waters on Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plumsteadville, PA
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location: 40.47, -75.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 152225
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
525 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
The strong coastal storm will continue to lift into delmarva
this evening, before moving across new jersey tonight, then to
our northeast offshore of new england on Friday. High pressure
is forecast to build to our west on Saturday before weakening
Saturday night as a weak cold front moves across the area. High
pressure builds to our north Sunday, before another frontal
system moves across the area Sunday night. Yet another frontal
system is possible around Tuesday, with high pressure for the
middle of the week.

Near term through Friday
***deepening coastal storm will continue to bring significant
impacts into tonight***
5 pm update... Transition to liquid precip continues to slowly
advance north into greater philly area however given temps still
near freezing, the snow that's fallen and still on many roads,
and that sleet, snow, freezing rain could continue to mix in
into early this evening we extended the advisory for the philly
area and adjacent zones until 9 pm.

Previous discussion: low pressure centered near the carolina
coast as of mid afternoon continuing to bring a variety of
precipitation types to the area. At this time areas from
wilmington to coastal ocean county and points south have
transitioned or are transitioning to rain with a mix of snow and
sleet occuring for areas just to the north including the philly
area. Farther north from chester county pa northeastward into
central and northern nj it is still mainly snow.

Going forward through the very end of the afternoon into early this
evening (4-7 pm time frame) expect that the transition line will
continue to work gradually northward as the deepening coastal storm
continues to move northward along the coast and the warm advection
pattern strengthens with strengthening NE winds... Especially along
the coast where we have wind advisories in effect. We leaned toward
the colder forecast guidance as this transition has been occuring
slower than originally forecast but still expecting from philly to
trenton to change over to all rain with above freezing temperatures
by mid evening (early evening around philly, closer to mid evening
near trenton). Meanwhile, mainly snow, heavy at times, mixed at
times with sleet continues farther north from the lehigh valley to
northern nj northward into the southern poconos. We have expanded
the winter storm warning farther south to include areas as far south
as western chester county northeast through upper bucks, montgomery
counties in pa and hunterdon somerset counties in nj.

By the late evening into the early overnight, the low continues to
move north and should take a track right across nj. This will
continue to bring in milder air with continuing rising temps but
there will also be a "dry slot" working in for a time from the south
which will lead to heavier precip abating near the track of the low
over the DELMARVA into nj. Still, expect at least light rain and
drizzle will continue here though. Meanwhile, warm advection pattern
will continue to push p-type transition line N W so expect a nasty
mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to be occuring by mid to late
evening into the overnight from the lehigh valley NE into northern
nj into the southern poconos. We have raised snow amounts in these
areas with upwards of 5-9 inches now expected in the southern
poconos but the mix with and change to ice should keep amounts from
getting too much higher than this.

By the late night early morning time frame (9-12z), low passes NE of
the area as it will be near long island by around 12z. Concern by
this time will be colder air wrapping in the system's backside with
deformation band precip wrapping back around into eastern pa and
northern nj. As this occurs, a brief transition back to snow could
occur as far south as the i-95 corridor as rain snow line collapses
se in the cold advection pattern. Not expecting much new snow
accumulation at that time for the southern end of this around philly
but it may lead to briefly reduced visibilities especially
especially as gusty W NW winds pick up. The good news is precip
should come to and end by mid to late morning with the
remainder of the day featuring dry but gusty conditions... W nw
winds gusting 20- 30 mph.

Temperature forecast... Temps continue to rise through this evening
likely peaking around or just after midnight as the surface low
moves over the area. Expect 40s to low 50s by this time along i-95
and points S E with 30s N W of here and temps barely getting to
around 30 in the southern poconos. Temps then fall back by late
tonight behind the storm but then rise into the upper 30s to upper
40s by Friday afternoon (coolest north, warmest south).

Snow and ice amounts... By the time the system's end, expect upwards
of 5-9 inches of snow sleet over the southern poconos with amounts
decreasing south of here... 4-7 inches from the lehigh valley NE into
northern nj, 2-5 inches along i-95 (with most of this already
fallen) and little to none farther south towards the coast. Ice
amounts of upwards of a tenth of an inch possible over the southern
poconos.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following today's coastal
storm. Besides the passage of a weak cold front, the weekend
looks fairly tranquil, thankfully.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal storm
that has contributed to the first real blast of winter weather will
continue to march across northern new england into the canadian
maritimes, leading to a cool, but fall-like stretch of weather
Saturday and Sunday. Cloud cover to the north across the poconos and
northern new jersey Saturday will slowly build southward through the
weekend, but conditions will remain dry. A subtle cold front surface
trough will move across the area Saturday afternoon, but we will
remain dry across the forecast area. While highs will still be about
ten degrees below average, it will feel nice compared to today's
well-below average high temperatures.

Long term Monday through Thursday
A second cold front is expected to reach our region Monday
afternoon. There may be some light snow and rain showers ahead of
the feature from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern pennsylvania,
and in northern and central new jersey. High pressure should return
for the middle of the new week, building just to our south.

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the poconos to the middle
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the
upper 30s in the poconos to low 50s over southern delaware.

Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area
throughout the remainder of next week.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Ifr conditions will persist across the TAF sites. The
challenge with the tafs will be precipitation types. For
acy miv, precipitation has changed to rain as temperatures are
above freezing and will remain so overnight. Ilg phl pne ttn,
remain with a sn pl ra fzra mixture this afternoon, but
temperatures are rising and will be above freezing soon. As
temperatures rise above freezing, precipitation will change to
rain, or maybe even drizzle. Abe rdg ttn will keep snow a little
longer before they begin to get the mix, but eventually
overnight are expected to change to all rain as temperatures
rise.

Winds will remain northeast 10-15 knots with gusts 20-30 knots
this afternoon and evening, before increasing to 20-25 knots
with gusts 25-35 knots later this evening and overnight. Winds
may drop off some overnight before increasing again toward
daybreak Friday.

Friday... Conditions will begin ifr as precipitation comes to an
end. A brief burst of rain snow showers is possible right
around daybreak. Uncertainty in their occurrence has kept
visibility restrictions out of the forecast. Ceilings are
expected to improve to MVFR through the morning, but may not
actually improve above MVFR. Acy and miv have the best
possibility to improve toVFR.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night... MVFR conditions may occur
periodically.

Sunday-Monday... MVFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected,
although MVFR conditions may develop during the day Tuesday.

Marine
Storm warning has been issued for all waters for this evening
overnight. Winds are increasing now and have already reached storm
force for some areas. As the coastal low moves over the area
overnight, the winds may diminish for a few hours, before increasing
just before daybreak Friday, with another surge of near storm force
winds.

The storm warning will end at 7 am Friday, although it may linger
for a couple of hours past 7, but gale force winds will continue
through the day.

Outlook...

Friday night... Winds expected to diminish to small craft advisory
levels during the evening hours.

Saturday-Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Hydrology
The flood watch has been cancelled as the flood potential from heavy
rain has diminished.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong onshore flow will precede the passage of the coastal storm
tonight. This raises concerns for the possibility of coastal
flooding during this period. However, there are two factors working
against a more substantial coastal flooding threat. The first is
that we are between the new and full moon phases, so the
astronomical tides are fairly low. The second is that the period of
strong onshore flow will be fairly brief (generally less than 24
hours).

Nevertheless, given the strength of the onshore winds, we are
somewhat concerned that forecast models are a little bit low on
tidal levels this afternoon through Friday. More concerning is the
variability in model output for the tidal levels during this period,
as the stevens institute ensembles indicate. With the october 27
event as a recent guide, we will need to assess the tidal gauge
forecasts leading up to the event (including low tides, in an effort
to determine how much water recedes given the opposing strong
onshore flow, something that is not well modeled in general). Though
the current forecast has no advisory-level flooding at any of the
forecast tidal gauges in our CWA during the tonight Friday high
tides, we cannot rule out the possibility of at least spotty minor
flooding, particularly in northern central new jersey and primarily
for tonight's high tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for paz054-055-062.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for paz060-061-101-
103-105.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for paz070-
071-102-104-106.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for njz001-007-008.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for njz009-010.

Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for njz013-014-020>027.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for njz013-
016-017-020-027.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for njz012-
015-018-019.

De... Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for dez002>004.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for dez001.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for mdz008.

Marine... Storm warning until 6 am est Friday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Davis iovino
long term... Davis iovino
aviation... Robertson
marine... Robertson
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 31 mi90 min ENE 12 G 18 33°F 44°F1021.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi36 min E 8 G 19 34°F 44°F1021 hPa
BDSP1 34 mi36 min 34°F 46°F1019.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 37 mi36 min 35°F 44°F1018.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi42 min 34°F 46°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA10 mi72 minNE 8 G 164.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist29°F26°F89%1022 hPa
Quakertown Airport, PA12 mi71 minNE 71.00 miFog/Mist28°F28°F100%1021.3 hPa
Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport, PA19 mi71 minNE 92.50 miLight Snow28°F28°F100%1022.3 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA19 mi75 minENE 160.75 miLight Snow29°F24°F82%1022.4 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ23 mi73 minNE 121.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1021.3 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi71 minENE 10 G 143.00 miOvercast30°F30°F100%1021 hPa

Wind History from DYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N8N63N4N6N45NE3NE53CalmCalm35NE8NE8NE8NE6NE9
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1 day agoW8W6W6W6W8W14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE5N4NE5NE6N5NE6N7N7N7N8
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Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
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Thu -- 02:53 AM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EST     7.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:48 PM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EST     8.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.71.10.71.84.366.77.37.15.742.51.410.91.84.36.77.57.986.85.2

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey (2)
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Trenton
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:33 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EST     6.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:39 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:51 PM EST     7.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.31.30.50.62.44.55.76.76.864.83.42.21.30.60.62.24.86.47.47.87.25.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.