Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plumsteadville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:35PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 12:34 PM EST (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 8:34PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 945 Am Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries. Chance of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 945 Am Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure and associated cold front over the great lakes approach the area today and the cold front moves through tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plumsteadville, PA
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location: 40.47, -75.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 111439
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
939 am est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
Surface high pressure over northern new england moves offshore
today. Meanwhile, weak surface low pressure will move through
the great lakes before moving across new england tonight. This
will drag a cold front through the region late tonight through
Wednesday morning. High pressure builds northeast of the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Coastal low pressure
will impact the area this weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track. No changes needed with this update.

Previous discussion...

another cold morning across the area, with mount pocono flirting
with single digits and several sites in northern new jersey,
near the fall line, and near in the pine barrens below 20
degrees. MOS guidance was again too warm this morning, which
will be instructive for forecasting low temperatures tonight.

The synoptic pattern for today features a southern-stream vort
max moving off the coast while a northern-stream perturbation
digs southeast from southern ontario into new york pennsylvania
by this evening. Subtle midlevel ridging descent will exist in
between, allowing for another dry and mostly sunny day. As
expected, guidance was too warm yesterday and has been too warm
for the past several days. However, the surface pattern will be
subtly different, with winds primarily light westerly or even
southwesterly during the afternoon. Combined with considerable
sunshine, suspect temperatures will be a little warmer today
than yesterday, though not by much since the low-level advection
appears to be mostly neutral. Forecast is a blend of bias-
corrected statistical guidance with a manual bump in
temperatures by about 1-2 degrees. Generally, this results in
temperatures about 1-3 degrees warmer than Monday's highs.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
The northern-stream vort MAX moves into the northern mid-
atlantic and northeast tonight, and weak ascent will spread into
the region as a result. Clouds should increase overnight,
though probably not early enough to result in another evening
crash in temperatures. Nevertheless, lows may occur somewhat
earlier in the night, especially in the north west, where
increasing cloudiness should occur earlier. Operational and
high-resolution models do not generate much precipitation
associated with the vort max, keeping light QPF to our
northwest. However, models generally underplay the ability for
these systems to produce some (snow) showers, so I did add a
mention of flurries to the poconos and far northwest new jersey
late tonight. So far, not expecting anything measurable, so kept
pops under mentionable values.

Overnight lows will likely be a little warmer than those seen
early this morning owing to the increased clouds, but given the
ample opportunity for cooling in the evening, I only kept them a
degree or so warmer than the lows seen this morning for now.

Confidence is a little lower than average, though, given the
somewhat uncertain sky forecast. As per observations the past
several mornings, forecast is lower than most statistical
guidance.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
On Wednesday, the northern mid-atlantic will be well upstream
of a cold front moving through the area tonight. Transient
midlevel ridging will ensue, and this should allow for another
dry but cold day. MOS is slightly warmer for MAX temps on
Wednesday (versus today), but given weak cold advection on the
upstream side of the front, I am somewhat skeptical. I held
temperatures fairly close to Tuesday's values, somewhat below
statistical consensus.

By 00z Thursday, a vort MAX should be working through the great
lakes ohio valley, but it will be approaching confluent
midlevel flow as it continues eastward. The vort MAX and its
attendant (weak) surface low will weaken with time, but residual
large- scale ascent via low-level warm advection will generate
some light precipitation near the surface low Wednesday night.

By late in the night, much of this precipitation should be
across western central pennsylvania and surrounding locations.

Though the low and precip will exhibit increased disorganization
with time, operational models are starting to converge on a
scenario in which some snow showers occur during the day across
portions of the area (primarily north of the mason- dixon line).

The 00z NAM is much farther north with the vort MAX but also
considerably stronger with the downstream ascent, allowing for
fairly prolonged precipitation in the northern CWA during the
day. Cannot entirely discount this idea owing to recent runs of
the cmc GFS depicting similar solutions (though without much
lift precip). The ecmwf, however, has been far more consistent
the past 24 hours and was used as a starting point for the
forecast.

With this in mind, retained pops in much of the area Thursday
and increased them to chance pops across the northern third or
so of the CWA while removing them from central southern delmarva
given the lack of model support for a farther south solution at
this time. Temperatures will be cold enough for mostly snow in
the morning but may warm sufficiently in the afternoon for
either rain or snow in the urban corridor eastward. Amounts
would be light (generally well under an inch), and there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty on overall coverage. Fine-
tuning of this "nuisance-looking" event will continue in later
forecasts given the weak nature of the system and the continued
model spread regarding the track of the vort MAX surface low.

Lowered temperatures a few degrees on Thursday given the
expected passage of the vort max, as the statistical guidance
looked much too warm in such a regime. Forecast may still be too
warm, given the latest met guidance.

Weak low pressure passes off the mid-atlantic coast Thursday
evening. Weak high pressure then builds into the northeast for
late Thursday night and Friday, then moves offshore Friday
night.

Deep closed upper level low pressure will move through the gulf
coast states, and strong surface low pressure develops out
ahead of it over the southeast and mid-atlantic states. A warm
front lifts north along the coast and into the region on Friday,
and some light precip will develop with its passage. Initially,
precip may be snow or a rain snow mix, but precip turns to rain
by Friday afternoon. QPF amounts will be light.

Deepening low pressure then lifts along the coast and passes
through the region Friday night and Saturday. Rain may be heavy
at times, especially from after midnight Friday night through
Saturday morning. Hydrologic impacts are possible during this
time.

There are some quite differences between the ECMWF gfs cmc-
gdps, so for now, will carry highest pops Friday night and
Saturday, and then will carry chance pops Saturday night.

Deep upper trough passes north of the region Saturday night,
and this will push the surface low out to sea. Meanwhile, the
closed upper low meanders over the gulf coast and southeast
states before finally moving offshore on Monday. High pressure
builds in from the west for the start of the new week.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with light northerly winds becoming west 5-10 kts
during the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight... MainlyVFR, but a brief period of CIGS 3500-7000 feet
are expected to develop after midnight from northwest to
southeast. Cannot rule out some MVFR cigs, though this is too
low of a probability for mention in the tafs at this time. Winds
generally light and variable, though winds may become more
northwesterly and a little bit stronger late as a weak cold
front moves through the area. Low to moderate confidence in
cigs; high confidence in winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR with northwest winds 7 to 15 kts with a few
gusts to 20 kts or so possible. High confidence.

Wednesday night... Increasing cloudiness with CIGS approaching
MVFR thresholds late. Light variable winds may acquire a more
easterly component by sunrise. Moderate confidence.

Thursday... Sub-vfr conditions possible with a chance of light
snow showers, especially in the morning. East winds 5 to 15 kts,
perhaps with a few gusts to 20 kts near the coast. Low
confidence.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR conditions.

Friday... Deteriorating conditions. Light precip possible, with
potential for snow initially, then rain by Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday... MVFR ifr in moderate to heavy rain at
times.

Marine
Extended the SCA through 1 pm. Wave heights are trending down,
but still above 5 feet. Suspect at the next update (~12:30 pm),
we will be able to take the headline down.

Previous discussion...

winds are well below criteria across the waters at this time,
but seas have been slow to subside at buoy 44009 (now between 5
and 7 feet). Currently expecting seas to trend downward this
morning, so the small craft advisory for the southern nj and de
atlantic coastal waters continues until 10 am.

After a lull in winds seas this afternoon and this evening,
northwest winds will increase after midnight as a weak cold
front moves into through the area. Another brief period of
advisory conditions is expected on all waters by this time. Will
likely hoist an advisory later this morning for late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, but will hold off on issuing this
advisory until the current one is done (and we have one last
look at newer model guidance).

Outlook...

Wednesday morning... Residual advisory-level northwest winds
possible.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday... Sub-advisory winds seas
expected. A chance of rain snow showers on Thursday.

Thursday night... Sub-sca winds expected. Seas on the ocean may
build to around 5 feet late.

Friday... Southeast winds will increase through the day and may
approach advisory levels late. Increasing chances for rain.

Friday night and Saturday... SCA conditions likely with gales
possible late Saturday. Mainly southeast winds.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz453>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms kruzdlo
long term... Cms mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms kruzdlo mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 31 mi58 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 36°F1019.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi34 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 37°F1019.3 hPa (-2.3)
BDSP1 34 mi34 min 38°F 40°F1018.9 hPa (-2.3)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 37 mi34 min 40°F 39°F1018.3 hPa (-2.4)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi40 min 38°F 41°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA10 mi40 minVar 510.00 miFair36°F21°F55%1019 hPa
Quakertown Airport, PA12 mi39 minVar 610.00 miFair36°F21°F56%1018.3 hPa
Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport, PA19 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair34°F23°F65%1019 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA19 mi43 minWSW 610.00 miFair35°F19°F54%1019 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ23 mi41 minWSW 610.00 miFair39°F23°F53%1018.4 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair36°F23°F60%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from DYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr44N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE3NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm5
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N6N4N3CalmNE4N7N8
G15
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2 days ago5W9
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NW8W4W3W4W4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE3SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Edgely, Pennsylvania
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Edgely
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Tue -- 12:19 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:18 AM EST     6.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:19 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:31 PM EST     7.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.72.74.65.86.76.45.44.12.91.810.40.82.95.36.87.67.66.75.342.81.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.