Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 10:57 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 110 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
This afternoon - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers late. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 110 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary will linger just south of the area or over southern portions of the area through the day. A frontal wave will push the boundary offshore late tonight into Wednesday. Weak high pressure remains in control the rest of Wednesday into early Thursday, with a weakening low passing to the north later on Thursday. Another back door cold front could potentially move through on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 301820 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will linger just south of the area or over southern portions of the area through the day. A frontal wave will push the boundary offshore late tonight into Wednesday. Weak high pressure remains in control the rest of Wednesday into early Thursday, with a weakening low passing to the north later on Thursday. Another back door cold front could potentially move through on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend, followed by high pressure building early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Lowered the cloud cover forecast for southern portions as per latest satellite trends as well as bumped up the high temperature forecast for parts of LI and Brooklyn and Queens to account for more sunshine than previously anticipated. Partial sunshine can still develop elsewhere later this afternoon with maybe the exception being eastern LI and coastal SE CT where the influence of a nearby weak low pressure center will be stronger.
A stationary front will otherwise linger nearby through the day.

A frontal wave then passes through the area this evening and overnight. Aloft, the upper level ridge breaks down and the flow become more zonal. The CAMs are all in decent agreement with a broken line of showers/thunderstorms moving into the Lower Hudson Valley between 22z and 00z this evening and then weakening significantly as it travels east. This is expected as there may be some elevated instability to work with just west of the area, but that falls off as you head east into a more stable environment thanks to a cool onshore flow. Added a slight chance of thunder for locations north and west of NYC. There may be some brief heavy downpours as well north and west of NYC.
Due to the expected quick moving nature of any storms, flooding is not expected at this time.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday and remains in control through early Thursday, with the flow aloft remaining relatively zonal. A shortwave trough and associated weakening surface low then pass to the north later on Thursday. This feature could bring some showers to eastern portions of the area Thursday into Thursday night.

There will be a bit of a warming trend into Thursday mainly for locations away from the coast. Highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s for most on Wednesday. The surface flow becomes more southerly on Thursday and there could be quite the temperature gradient across the area. With an onshore flow from the start of the day, Long Island and coastal CT likely top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Meanwhile, some locations in northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley have the potential to touch 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An uncertain long term period in terms of the details, especially with respect to the behavior of a back door cold front late this week, along with the timing of a weakening frontal system towards the second half of the weekend.

With respect to the beginning of the period for Friday look for mainly dry conditions. Towards Friday much of the guidance is now pointing towards the warm front that lift north of the area to become stationary, then settle south as a cold front from the north and northeast as high pressure along the Eastern Canadian coast attempts to build south. This will likely aid in the cold front getting driven further south and into the area Friday.
Temperatures overall into Friday should average a bit closer to normal, with warmer temperatures further south and west and cooler temperatures further north and east.

For the weekend the global guidance has gradually slowed the progression of a weakening frontal boundary. This is mainly because heights attempt to rise again across the area and this will make any eastward progression of showers ahead of the cold front more difficult. Have introduced slight chance and chance showers for the day Saturday, but model trends and latest consensus pointing to Saturday remaining predominantly dry. Thus, Saturday night into Sunday appears to be the time frame for relatively higher chance PoPs as the boundary slowly pushes into the region. Look for more in the way of clouds, but a washout of the second half of the weekend is looking less likely at this time as the upper level ridge over the areas doesn't really break down until the day on Sunday. Will continue the shower chances through Sunday night, with PoPs decreasing into Monday AM. High pressure should build behind the weakened boundary later Monday and into Tuesday of next week. Warmer temperatures may return on Monday as 850 mb temps warm once again.
This far out sfc winds are always in question this time of year, but the guidance consensus is suggestive of a SW flow which would get a large majority of the area above NBM guidance. For now have went warmer than the NBM guidance for Monday as clouds should begin to break.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A wave of low pressure along a stationary front south and west of the area this afternoon will pass to the south and east of Long Island tonight. Weak high pressure follows for Wednesday.

This is a challenging ceiling forecast with mainly MVFR ceilings across the area this afternoon, however, it has gone SCT across the NYC terminals, where it will likely remain for the afternoon.
MVFR or lower conditions return tonight along with a chance of showers. An isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals from 23Z to 03Z. Any convection will likely be in a weakened state across the eastern terminals. Spotty showers are then expected for the remainder of the overnight. VFR conditions return by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be ENE-E through this evening, generally 10 kt or less. The flow backs towards the N-NNE late tonight and early Wednesday morning, with speeds 5 kt or less. SE winds generally less than 10 kt will develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional MVFR this afternoon, but mainly VFR.

MVFR returns tonight, but IFR is possible.

Timing of showers this evening could vary by 1-2 hours. A thunderstorm is possible, but confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon: Improving to VFR at all terminals.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR afternoon into the night.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. ESE winds G15-20kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient remains in place over the coastal waters leading to an extended period of sub small craft conditions. Ocean seas are expected to be at 2-3 feet through the remainder of the week. Small craft conditions are not expected to potentially return until late in the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sandy Hook
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Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
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Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
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Tue -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:32 PM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
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Tue -- 12:13 AM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
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Tue -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
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