Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sayreville, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1056 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Today..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers. Scattered tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Numerous showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1056 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches today, moving across the waters late this afternoon into this evening. A cold front follows, moving across the forecast waters tonight. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sayreville , NJ
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location: 40.48, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231733
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
133 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to move offshore today while low
pressure moves across southern canada. A cold front attached to this
low will cross our area this evening and early tonight. High
pressure will follow for Friday and Saturday. Another low and its
associated fronts will affect our weather Saturday night and Sunday.

After that, high pressure will build in for the beginning of next
week.

Near term through tonight
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of
eastern pennsylvania and eastern maryland until 8pm this
evening.

Changes for the 930 am update: no significant changes for this
update. The continuing morning convection is more persistent
than previously forecast. In most cases, this could limit the
threat for severe storms with rounds of storms later in the day.

However, with the warm front currently lifting through the
region, and given how dynamic this system is, I don't think that
is the case today. Therefore, I hesitate to make any significant
changes at this time.

Through the evening hours, there are two potential significant
rounds of thunderstorms. The first round is expected to come with
the line of storms over central pa as of 1 pm. A second round of
storms is possible later this evening as the cold front approaches
the region. Severe storms are possible, although the line over
central pa has shown little evidence of strengthening as it
progresses east. Also, convection through the morning early
afternoon has been more persistent than previously forecast.

Additionally, dewpoints for most of our area remain in the 50s. None
the less, models still show increasing threat for severe storms
especially as we go into the late afternoon and early evening. The
primary hazard still looks to be damaging winds and hail. Still
can't rule out a tornado potential, but given the LCL heights, this
appears to be the lowest threat of all the severe risks.

Storms should move off shore between 03 and 06z 11pm and 2 am. There
is a potential for some fog to develop, primarily for areas that may
get heavy rain this afternoon.

With the cold front arriving during the later half of the night, we
may not see much difference with temperatures overnight. Currently
we are forecasting low temperatures from the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the region.

Short term Friday
A pleasant day is on tap tomorrow as the ridge builds to our west.

Northwesterly flow is expected over our region through the day. The
pressure gradient may be slow to decrease behind the cold front, so
gusts to 25 mph are possible through the day. In the wake of the
cold front, highs should be in the 60s and 70s.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
A rather active pattern in the extended with high pressure remaining
across the south while low pressure systems move by to the north
during the weekend and into next week. Only made some minor
adjustments to the pops wx since the timing of the various
fronts short waves can be problematic in patterns like this.

Saturday looks mostly dry, then more showers tstms Sat night and
Sunday. More high pressure will be around for Monday and then the
next system may move north of the area Tue wed. Precipitation during
the period will be mostly of the showery TSTM variety, so mostly
scattered but locally heavy.

Temperatures will be near normal sat, but then the high to the
south will begin to pump some above normal temperatures for
sun mon. This high will remain close enough to bring more
summer-like warmth this upcoming week. High temperatures in many
periods were raised somewhat, but still below what some of the
wpc numbers. We could make a run at 90 degrees either both sun
and wed.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Storms will be possible at times through the remainder
of the afternoon. The storms will lower CIGS vsbys to MVFR or
lower for a period mostly late afternoon across the terminals.

Sw winds 5 to 15 knots.

Tonight... Once storms move off shore between 03 and 06z, expect
mostlyVFR conditions. There is a chance for localized br to
develop, especially for any locations that have heavy rain this
evening. For now, i'm not confident where that will be, so have kept
it out of the tafs for now. Winds will be shifting from
southwesterly to westerly by 06z. After 06z, expect a shift to
northwesterly behind the cold front. High confidence on most aspects
of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for br.

Friday...VFR conditions are expected. Northwesterly winds may gust
as high as 25 kt during the day.

Outlook...

Saturday... MostlyVFR.

Sat night thru Sun night... Scattered showers tstms with lower
cigs vsbys possible.

Monday... MostlyVFR.

Marine
Marginal small craft advisory conditions will continue on the
atlantic coastal waters into late tonight. Expect a lull in
conditions Friday morning. There may be a brief period of wind gusts
to 25 kt Friday afternoon, primarily for near shore locations.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca conditions expected through the holiday
weekend. There will be a few tstms Sat night thru Sun night.

Locally higher winds and seas possible with the tstms.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
on the new jersey shore and delaware beaches through this
evening.

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online and repairs have been completed.

However, it will be in a test phase through today to ensure it
is stable.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 15 mi54 min SSW 8.9 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 16 mi60 min 66°F 60°F1019.4 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi54 min SW 15 G 18 66°F 65°F1020.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 20 mi54 min SSE 7 G 8.9 61°F 1019.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi54 min 65°F 59°F1019.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi60 min SW 7 G 11 67°F 66°F1020.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi32 min SSW 16 G 19 60°F 59°F1019 hPa55°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 39 mi66 min SSW 4.1 G 7 67°F 65°F1019.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi54 min SW 14 G 16 63°F 59°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ19 mi49 minS 10 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds69°F54°F59%1018.2 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi51 minS 810.00 miOvercast67°F55°F66%1019.1 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ22 mi57 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1019.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi46 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F57°F68%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from SMQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr34CalmW3S3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4S4S5S10
G16
1 day agoNW9
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6N6NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW34N7--NW4
2 days ago65
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W75Calm3Calm3N9NW6CalmNW10
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G18
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, New Jersey
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Sayreville
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Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:24 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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65.54.53.21.90.90.40.41.32.53.64.44.94.84.23.22.31.61.11.223.14.25.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:23 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.30.71.51.61.20.70.2-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.7-0.20.51.31.61.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.