Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:34 AM   Moonset 2:44 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 327 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Sat night - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Wed night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 327 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure extending south along the new england coast and into our our area will remain nearly stationary into Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Tuesday before returning as a warm front Wednesday. A series of frontal waves may impact the area to end the week.

FXUS61 KPHI 031919 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 319 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
235 PM...It's a challenging near term forecast due to different competing forces. On the one hand, an expansive ridge of high pressure is building into eastern Canada with the southwestward periphery of this feature extending back into the mid Atlantic.
And in fact guidance actually depicts this feature strengthening slightly over our area during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile though, this ridge has resulted in easterly flow that has brought in a low deck of some marine stratus into much of NJ, DE, and even extending at times into portions of eastern PA.
Finally, there is a frontal system that's approaching from the west with some showers however it will take some time for these showers to get into the area over the weekend as it runs up against the ridge in place. The upshot of all this is that skies are variable across the area this afternoon with the marine stratus starting to mix out and retreat back to the east just within the past hour or two while at the same time some high cirrus has been moving in from the west. It's also a much cooler day compared to yesterday with temperatures as of 2 PM only in the 50s and 60s.

As we go through the rest of this afternoon into the evening expect that we'll continue to see variable skies with low stratus continuing to be most persistent near the coast while western parts of the CWA over eastern PA continue to see some filtered sunshine through the high clouds. It will remain precip free though through the evening. Overnight, however, shortwave energy will ride over the top of the upper level ridge centered over the east and help to push showers from the west closer to the region. This could bring a few light showers into parts of Delmarva and eastern PA by daybreak. Otherwise, clouds thicken through the night with lows getting down mainly into the upper 40s to around 50.

For Saturday, low pressure moves eastward towards the Great Lakes driven by an advancing upper level trough. As this occurs, showers well ahead of it will continuing to try making inroads into our area while running up against the stubborn surface high that will be slow to move out. The upshot is some scattered showers will likely make it in at times, especially over eastern PA and Delmarva and especially getting into the second half of the day (POPs here by late day generally 40 to 60 percent).
Otherwise it will be a mostly cloudy and cool day with continuing easterly winds and highs only making it to the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday night will featured continued marine flow from the east as the approaching front from the west washes out. Thus, expect areas near the coast to be mostly dry and cool, with a better chance of showers inland due to the nearby stalled front. Lows mostly in the upper 40s.

Next, stronger front approaches from the west Sunday, but its approach looks slower, so have slowed the progress of higher POPs into the area. Looks like best chance of widespread showers is late day and at night Sunday night. With the marine layer likely to hold fairly firm, chance of thunder looks minimal, and severe weather risk appears zero. Highs 50s north, 60s south, perhaps near 70 far southern DE and adjacent parts of MD.

Rain showers move out on Monday morning, though again opted for slower timing given trend. Marine layer looks like it is at least somewhat disrupted as flow turns westerly and a warm front tries to lift north, allowing temps to potentially rise to the 70s for most and near 80 southern DE/adjacent MD. Guidance now wants to generate some convection in the afternoon, and given the warmer and more humid air mass, its not out of the question we have a few stronger cells, but at this point there doesn't appear to be a significant severe wx or flood risk.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through the week ahead. The front that lifts north thru the area Monday doesn't get far, and looks to even slide back south a little Tuesday, though at this point still looks likely mostly 70s. Another approaching shortwave and proximity of the front could spark off a shower or t-storm, but right now looks like low coverage.

Front lifts a little further north behind that shortwave Wednesday, allowing temps to rise a bit. With it remaining nearby and another front approaching from the north, the odds of some aft/eve convection increases a bit. Highs closer to 80.

Guidance is trending towards the return of a marine layer behind said front for Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend in temps. A passing wave may produce some better shower coverage Thursday as well, so we have highest POPs in the long term on Thursday. Friday trend is a little drier but still a marine influence.

It should be noted that with the wavering front nearby all week and several weak waves, its possible the details of the forecast are notably different from how they currently appear, so check back for updates frequently. Guidance is very mixed presently.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through this afternoon...Mainly MVFR predominating at ACY, MIV, TTN, and PNE due to low stratus. Otherwise mainly VFR with a scattered deck around 2500 feet. East winds 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 20 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...The marine stratus should result in MVFR cigs or lower eventually predominating by the overnight period with conditions lowering through the evening around PHL but likely not until the overnight at RDG and ABE. IFR cigs likely overnight at MIV and ACY. East winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR in the morning with some improvement in the afternoon to VFR except at MIV and ACY where MVFR may continue. East winds around 10 knots. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Restrictions expected with showers moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible.
Best chance of showers is late Sunday/Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory continues through this afternoon over our ocean zones as seas remain around 5 to 6 feet with winds gusting 20 to 25 knots. These conditions should diminish early this evening with seas diminishing to 10 to 15 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet. Little change is expected on Saturday. It will also be mainly cloudy over the waters through Saturday with some patchy fog possible at times.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.

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Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:12 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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