Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:11 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 521 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Wed - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 521 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from new england today, then another frontal system tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday night. High pressure then moves offshore early next week followed by a low pressure area moving across midweek.

FXUS61 KPHI 111043 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 643 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure arrives today before another low moves through this evening into tomorrow. High pressure builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:40am...Little changes were made to the forecast this morning. Mainly updated sky and temperature grids over the next couple of hours as skies are mostly clear to start Saturday morning. Also, patchy dense fog is being observed in the sheltered valleys of northern New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania.
However, with the sun now rising, any fog should quickly burn off within the next hour or two.

This will give way to an overall pleasant day across the area as a brief surface high slides across the Mid-Atlantic. Skies should be mostly sunny for the first half of the day, before an increase in clouds this afternoon is expected as the next disturbance approaches the area tonight. High temps should recover nicely into the low to mid 60s this afternoon for most, with temps only reaching into the mid to upper 50s across the Poconos and along the coast as onshore flow develops late in the afternoon.

For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into the area after sunset from west to east as surface low exits the Great Lakes region. The low will be accompanied by a cold front, however the overall strength of the system will be weakening as it nears. Widespread rain showers are anticipated with higher PoPs over western areas where better forcing will be present. Have kept the slight chance of thunder mentioned in the forecast tonight as a narrow axis of MUCAPE (~500 J/kg) is present in forecast soundings across SE PA and into the Delmarva. Overall, no severe weather is expected as instability will be elevated in nature. Rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Strong PVA will be moving over the region as a mid level trough digs in through the Great Lakes on Sunday. With weak warm air advection and sufficient lift provided by PVA expect a wet Sunday. Modest amounts of instability will be possible but the strong shear is displaced to the south with 40+ kts of 0-6km shear forecast over southern VA with just 20-30kts over the forecast area. Lapse rates are decently strong (>7 over the northern portions of the forecast area) so if a storm does develop it will likely take on pulse characteristics with little moment. With temps still below normal and the warm air advection fairly weak it will be another dreary day across the region with periods of rain and temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s for Mother's Day.

By Sunday evening, the trough starts to clear and the area should begin to dry out as ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.

A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing clouds at times

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The work week looks to continue to be somewhat active with a couple of systems moving through during the week. Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for early to mid May.
Ensemble guidance points to rainfall but continues to suggest that forcing is not currently lining up to lead to much in the way of any severe weather for the week ahead.

The first system to bring showers and thunderstorms should move through on Tuesday but again the best shear and instability don't overlap so while there is a medium to high chance (60-70%) of showers and embedded thunderstorms, we are not anticipating any severe weather. The wet weather is expected to linger through the day on Wednesday before a ridge builds in for Thursday bringing dry sensible weather. Towards the end of the week or perhaps the weekend, the next system starts moving towards the region and will have the potential to bring another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR expected today. BKN-OVC CIGs early this morning are forecast to scatter out by 12Z, except at KRDG/KABE where skies may remain BKN. Patchy fog is also possible at KRDG/KABE this morning, but confidence in occurrence is low. Otherwise, light northerly winds this morning will veer and become E-SE this afternoon around 7- 12 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR early, likely becoming sub-VFR as rain showers move into the area. CIGs are expected to fall to MVFR at KRDG/KABE by 03Z and the remainder of the terminals after 06Z. Localized visibility restrictions may become possible. Southeast winds around 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings and reduced visibility with periods of rain moving through with a 10% chance of embedded thunderstorms.

Monday through Monday Night..VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday...VFR to start but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
later in the day as showers move in.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Northeast winds around 15-20 kt this morning will diminish and become east-southeast winds around 10-15 kt this afternoon. Southeast winds then continue into tonight around 10-15 kt. Fair weather expected through this afternoon before rain showers approach this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High tide for the Atlantic coastal waters has passed and thus the additional threat for flooding has ended for move of the Atlantic waters and Delaware Bay. The exception is across Ocean county NJ and Susses county DE where water remains trapped in the Back Bays. Additional flooding is expected in these back bay areas until the flow turns offshore. Water levels on the Delaware River are starting to push up towards Burlington and Philadelphia as of 4am and flood waters are expected to continue rising over the next two hours before starting to recede.

Additional minor coastal flooding is forecast with the evening/overnight high tide Saturday night into early Sunday.

Flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake through Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020- 026.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for DEZ003- 004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.

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Keasbey
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Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Keasbey, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:52 AM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:32 PM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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