Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:15PM Friday March 24, 2017 5:59 PM EDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 3:36PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 313 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft early...then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of light rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of light rain or drizzle.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Light rain likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 313 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front approaches tonight...and moves through the waters Saturday. Low pressure gradually approaches from the west Sunday...and moves across on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 241948
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
348 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over southern canada will drift south through the
tri-state region on Saturday. An unsettled weather pattern
continues Sunday into the middle of next week. Cold front to our
south returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and moves
offshore Monday night. Another frontal system approaches on
Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure returns Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday.

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/
The rain has ended across the region this afternoon as the bulk
of the theta-e advection has occurred.

Some moisture around 6000 ft remains tonight, but there is no
lift in that moist layer. Despite some colder cloud tops on
infrared satellite over pennsylvania, there is no rainfall
occurring. With the models supporting a dry forecast through the
overnight as well, the weather has been kept dry.

A broad blend of the model data has been used for temperatures,
with mild readings expected due to southwesterly flow and cloud
cover.

Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/
A cold front over southern ontario will track south through the
area by late Saturday morning into the afternoon. The timing is
pretty consistent between the NAM and gfs, so the NAM was used
in the grids. This translates into falling temperatures across
the northern half of the forecast area by afternoon, with the
fall in temperatures later in the day across new jersey zones.

Water vapor indicates a moisture stream from the subtropical
pacific into the southeastern united states. This will allow for
some deeper moisture to penetrate into the region during the day
and through the night. The upper jet will be passing from
southern canada into northern new england at this time,
producing some broad lift. With these factors combining, light
rain has been forecast for the area mainly Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night. Easterly component low level flow could
allow for some fog or drizzle development particularly
overnight. Patchy fog has been maintained in the forecast along
with the light rain as a result.

The downscaled NAM was used for temperatures Saturday to account
for the cold frontal passage. A blend of guidance was used
Saturday night.

There is a low chance that temperatures approach freezing late
Saturday night which could result in some pockets of interior
icing. The probability is low at this time, so it has not been
included in this forecast.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/
Unsettled, progressive weather pattern will persist from Sunday
through the upcoming week. Deterministic models and ensembles are in
general agreement with the synoptic scale, with differences arising
in the timing and amplitude of several shortwaves to move across.

Backdoor front will be well to the south on Sunday with high
pressure building south of out of quebec. Warm air overrunning the
stable, cool layer at the surface will keep low clouds throughout
the day and the chance for light rain or drizzle.

Upper level ridging will be in place, so there is not much support
for widespread precipitation. Temperatures will be held down in the
lower and middle 40s due to onshore flow and cloudy conditions.

Cutoff low over the central states on Sunday will open and lift
towards the great lakes Sunday night and then continue to dampen out
as it moves towards the region on Monday. Upper ridge axis gradually
moves offshore allowing for better lift for more widespread
rainfall. Pops increase to likely for much of the area late Sunday
night into Monday morning with categorical across the north closer
to the shortwave energy and best lift.

Shortwave axis quickly moves east Monday afternoon and evening,
which will take the lingering front to the south and east.

Brief ridging moves across Monday night with another shortwave on
its heels for Tuesday. This is where deterministic runs and
ensembles begin to diverge further as the latest 12z ECMWF flattens
this next shortwave out as it passes whereas the 12z GFS and the
gefs are more amplified, bringing a weak low pressure across the
region. Have capped pops off in the chance range due to the
uncertainty on the amplitude of this wave. In either case, mostly
cloudy to overcast skies continue.

An amplifying shortwave across southeast canada sends a shortwave
across new england on Wednesday, but frontal boundary should be well
offshore at this time, so improving conditions are expected. High
pressure than follows on Thursday before another frontal system
approaches for Friday.

Near seasonable temperatures are forecast on Monday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels Tuesday into
Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures are currently expected for the
end of the week.

Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/
A cold front will cross the region Saturday.

MainlyVFR through late tonight but there's a low chance of
MVFR or lower at coastal terminals late. By midday Saturday,
the front approaches and then passes through with low clouds and
some drizzle developing. Conditions deteriorating to MVFR and
then ifr during the midday and afternoon hours. Lifr is
possible.

S-ssw winds this afternoon 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Good
chance of gusts to near 30 kt at kisp and kjfk. Winds diminish
this evening. On Saturday, winds near 15 kt veer to NW and then ne
Saturday afternoon as the front moves through.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi42 min 57°F 41°F1020 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi42 min SW 15 G 21
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi42 min SW 12 G 16 54°F 41°F1019.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi42 min SW 14 G 19 56°F 1020.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi42 min 51°F 41°F1020.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi70 min SSW 23 G 27 44°F 41°F6 ft1021.1 hPa (-4.9)36°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi42 min 5.1 G 9.9 49°F 39°F1020.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi45 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 35°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi42 min WSW 12 G 16 58°F 44°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi69 minSW 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F32°F38%1020.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi69 minVar 310.00 miOvercast54°F30°F42%1020.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi69 minS 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F37°F66%1021.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi69 minSW 12 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F30°F40%1020.6 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi69 minSW 810.00 miOvercast55°F32°F42%1020.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi64 minSSW 14 G 2010.00 miFair60°F30°F33%1021.7 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi70 minW 10 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F32°F41%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W6W3N3CalmS3CalmS3SW7S5SW8SW5S11S9S10S10S16S15
G20
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G22
SW13
G21
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SW16SW15
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SW10
1 day agoNW18
G31
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G26
NW17NW13
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NW10NW8
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NW8NW7NW7W7NW8NW10NW12NW8NW12
G20
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W105
2 days agoW9W7W5W8W5N8N7NW3SW6NW11NW14NW18
G29
NW15
G21
NW21
G35
NW22
G32
NW20
G32
NW25
G34
NW22
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G31
NW19
G34
NW27
G35
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G33
NW23
G32
NW20
G34

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6123.144.64.74.43.62.61.70.80.30.312.23.344.54.43.72.81.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     1.48 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:26 PM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-0.9-0.20.81.51.61.50.9-0.1-1-1.6-2-1.8-1.3-0.80.11.11.51.41.10.2-0.8-1.5-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.