Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:50PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:45 AM EDT (06:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:36AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 122 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Overnight..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms late.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 122 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves north across the area waters overnight into Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will approach on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180542 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
142 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach tonight and move north through Friday
morning. A cold front approaches Friday, moving across the
region late Friday night. A frontal system will slowly pass
offshore on Saturday. High pressure will then build in through
the beginning of next week, followed by a midweek cold frontal
passage.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Main showers still located where higher sfc theta-e is situated
across central pa and farther north into western central ny
state. This environment along with the showers approaches closer
to the region towards daybreak. As showers enter, heavy downpours
will be possible due to high precipitable waters of approximately
2 inches that will be moving in which GOES with the higher
theta-e.

An area of low pressure will track east across the northern
great lakes tonight. A warm front associated with the system is
expected lift north through the local area overnight and into
Friday morning. Showers and possible thunderstorms will spread
across the area overnight and into Friday morning. Temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
As a warm front moves north a strong southerly flow will usher
in behind, bringing an influx of moisture across the area.

Latest hrrr indicates some heavier shower activity in the
11-15z timeframe Friday. This would certainly be possible as
precipitable waters are forecast to increase to between 2 and 2.3
inches. Dewpoints will rise back into the 70s across the region
along with instability resulting in thunderstorms and heavy rain
to develop. There may be a break in the precipitation for a brief
time once the warm front lifts north, and until the cold front
nears later in the day. Storms will weaken and move into long
island and southern connecticut by Friday night.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at nyc and nassau
county ocean beaches.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
The frontal boundary sfc trof will slowly slide offshore on sat.

Trends will need to be monitored for a slowing of this feature, as
the main upr trof which will force it ewd is still progged to be
over oh at 18z sat. The slower the boundary exits, the slower shwrs
and especially clouds will exit. Based on the 12z data, areas along
and W of the hudson dry, with the rest of the area low chances for
pcpn. Dry weather Sat ngt thru Mon ngt with high pres progged to
move in.

12z GFS timeheights indicate sunny skies on Mon with perhaps some
fair wx cu, particularly along the sea breeze front.

Chances for shwrs and tstms Tue thru Wed ahead of a cold frontal
passage. Best chances are Wed closest to the front attm, so as the
event draws closer pops may be eliminated for tue.

A blend of the guidance and 2m data was used for temps thru the
period. The numbers will generally be abv average until the fropa
next week.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front approaches from the southwest tonight. A cold front
will approach from late Friday.

Stratus deck that developed along the south shore of long island
near kjfk has now spread to kisp and the other city terminals.

Uncertainly remains as to whether it remains through the night,
however keeping an optimistic forecast. Otherwise...VFR with
deteriorating conditions around daybreak.

Friday will be very unsettled with the threat of showers and
scattered thunderstorms in the morning and then again with the
approaching cold front late in the afternoon. There is uncertainty
with improving conds in the warm sector after the warm front
passes in the morning, may be too optimistic in the nyc metro.

Gusty winds and MVFR ifr are possible with any heavier shower or
thunderstorm.

Light southerly winds overnight before increasing again 10 to
15 kt Friday. Gusts to 25 kt possible Friday afternoon across
much the region but especially along the coast.

Higher gusts possible with any thunderstorm.

Outlook for 00z Saturday through Tuesday
Saturday night MVFR or lower flight cat possible in
showers tstms with gusty winds possible during the evening.

Fog stratus with MVFR or lower conds may linger through the
overnight.

Sunday and Monday Vfr. Light NW wind becoming SW by late
Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday Iso shra tstms possible with MVFR or lower
conds... OtherwiseVFR.

Marine
A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the area
waters Friday morning. Southerly winds will increase ahead of an
approaching cold front Friday, resulting in 15 to 20 kt winds.

Seas may briefly build close to 5 feet Friday afternoon and into
Friday evening. Will hold off on a SCA for Friday afternoon and
evening given low confidence in widespread SCA conditions
developing.

There may be some lingering 5 ft seas on the ocean Sat as a
front passes E of the waters, but all areas are fcst to be blw
sca lvls by Sat ngt. Winds and seas are then progged to remain
blw SCA lvls on all waters thru next wed.

Hydrology
Heavy rainfall is possible by morning as a warm front moves
northward through the region. Another round of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be possible by evening with the cold frontal
passage. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be around a half
an inch to an inch, with locally higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms. At this time it remains difficult to pinpoint
where heavier showers and thunderstorms will develop. No
significant hydrologic impacts are expected, but some minor
urban flooding is possible.

Impacts from potential showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday are uncertain at this point, however at least minor
nuisance flooding will remain a possibility.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc fig
near term... Md fig
short term... Fig
long term... Jmc
aviation... Cb
marine... Jmc fig
hydrology... Jmc md fig


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi45 min S 8.9 G 12 76°F 77°F1012.6 hPa (-2.0)
MHRN6 8 mi45 min S 4.1 G 7
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi45 min 76°F 76°F1013.2 hPa (-2.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi45 min SSE 9.9 G 11 1013.9 hPa (-2.0)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi45 min 76°F 75°F1013.2 hPa (-2.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi55 min S 14 G 16 76°F 75°F2 ft1013.2 hPa (-1.9)75°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 11 76°F 75°F1013.5 hPa (-2.0)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi45 min S 4.1 G 7 74°F 76°F1013.5 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi54 minSSE 48.00 miOvercast74°F73°F97%1013.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi54 minSSE 67.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1013.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi54 minSSE 95.00 miFog/Mist76°F75°F100%1013.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi54 minS 910.00 miOvercast77°F73°F90%1013.4 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi54 minS 78.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F88%1012.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi49 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F88%1014.2 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi50 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N9N8N7N7N9NE84456S9S7S8SE8SE8SE7SE5SE7SE5SE6S4SE5S4
1 day agoCalmW6W44NW5NW4N11
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W5NW4NW6NW5N9N10
2 days agoSW9S4SE3CalmCalmCalmS3S53SE6SE4S4SW33CalmSW5CalmSE4SE4CalmCalmS3SW3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 PM EDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.71.93.14.14.74.743210.30.10.61.93.44.75.65.85.44.43.32.11

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:30 AM EDT     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:49 PM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:10 PM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-0.901.11.51.51.10.3-0.8-1.6-2.1-2.1-1.6-0.9-01.21.92.11.91.2-0-1.1-1.9-2.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.