Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:52PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:25 AM EDT (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:46AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1252 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms late. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening... Then 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the evening...then becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft... Then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1252 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of weak fronts will cross the region Saturday through Monday night. Weak high pressure then builds through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 290458
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1258 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
A series of weak fronts cross the region tonight into Saturday
night. High pressure will return briefly for Sunday. A warm
front will then approach from the south Sunday night, and lift
into or through the area on Monday, followed by a cold front
from the west Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Weak high
pressure will return for the rest of Tuesday into Wednesday. A
low pressure system will then approach on Thursday, and pass
nearby on Friday. Weak high pressure then builds in through
Wednesday. A frontal system approaches from the southwest
Thursday and moves along the coast through late week.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Minor adjustments were made again to the forecast database to
reflect the observed trends mainly with temperatures and
dewpoints. Lower and thicker clouds are expected late tonight
as the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of
the warm front. With coherent showalter index forecast agreement
between different models with slightly negative values,
elevated instability is conveyed, and hence the potential will
be there for thunderstorms. The coherent mesoscale reflectivity
fields show higher reflectivity forecast in the 09-12z timeframe
in the region. The forecast precipitable waters increase to
near 1.6 to 1.7 inches briefly early Saturday morning with the
convection so brief locally heavy rain will be possible
especially with any thunderstorms.

Through this evening high pressure will remain across the region
as bermuda high pressure remains in the western atlantic. This
keep a south to southwest flow across the area with increasing
dew points tonight. A warm front will be developing after 03z
from low pressure across the central plains. There will be
increasing lift and instability mainly aloft late tonight and
into Saturday morning. In addition a weak vort will travel along
the developing warm front. This is expected to trigger showers
and a chance, or scattered embedded thunderstorms late tonight,
after 08z.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday/
The front will remain in the area into early Saturday morning
and then dissipate as the bermuda high builds back into the
area, leaving a warm and humid, summer like airmass in place.

Also, the vort moves quickly east of the region by 15z, may be
sooner as depicted in some short term guidance. Afterward expect
area to remain dry, although both the NAM and GFS hint at some
precipitation heading close to the area late Saturday afternoon.

More likely is that maybe scattered showers develop on the
periphery of the high late in the day. Despite rain and clouds
early in the day, high temperatures expected to be close to
Friday highs, a couple of degrees lower, as sunshine develops
and with mixing to 900-850 mb. The boundary, cold front then
gets push south late Saturday night as high pressure builds to
the north.

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/
Remarkably consistent trend to the long term, so changes to the
previous forecast have been minor at most, except perhaps for Sunday
into Monday. Temps have trended a little cooler for Sunday after the
back door cold frontal passage, with highs from the upper 50s to mid
60s, warmest west of the hudson. Precip with the approaching warm
front looks to be on the light side, but do expect widespread low
clouds to develop, also some patchy fog late Sunday night into
Monday morning just ahead of the warm front. Depending on the
strength of a lobe of high pressure off to the east and the
potential for a weak wave of low pressure to develop along the
front, it may take some time for the front to lift north of the
area, especially across long island and southern ct, so there will
be a wide range of potential high temps on Monday. High temp
forecast is close to the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean mos, with 60s
across southern ct and most of long island, and 70s west of there.

That said, the high end ensemble numbers suggest lower 80s are
possible west of the hudson, and widespread 70s farther east, if the
front lifts through by afternoon.

At any rate, a cold front should move through Monday night into
early Tuesday morning with showers and a few thunderstorms, followed
by dry wx for the rest of Tue into wed, with temps running above
average especially on tue, with upper 60s to mid 70s, then mid and
upper 60s on wed.

As noted a couple of days back, chances for rain will increase late
this week as flow aloft becomes zonal at first, then more amplified
via a developing upper trough in the central states. The resulting
deep layer SW flow in its advance should result in surface
cyclogenesis along a baroclinic zone over the southern plains and
lower mississippi valley, with this low then moving up the coast
toward the area and tapping into gulf and atlantic moisture. This
has some potential to be a heavy rain maker on Friday if the
synoptic scale ingredients are in sync, but it is still too early to
know for certain.

Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/
A weak cold front settles over the area tonight... With a wave of
pressure moving through early Saturday morning. The cold front
slowly sags south of the region late Saturday.

An area of showers with embedded tsra will approach from the
west overnight, and should pass through from 8-14z, west to
east. Medium to high confidence in sparse coverage of
tstms... Conveyed through a vcts.

The other concern is potential for ifr/lifr
stratus/fog... Currently lurking offshore... Working back into
kjfk/kisp/kgon after 06z. Elsewhere MVFR or ifr conditions are
possible in fog and showers late tonight into Sat morning. Once
these showers move through by late Sat morning,VFR conditions
will return.

Light S or variable winds overnight... Eventually turn toward
the w/sw by late morning Saturday. Westerly gusts to 25-30 kt
likely for klga/kewr/kteb/kswf Sat aft. South coastal terminals
likely to see winds backed more to the sw... With gusts 20 to 25
kt in the afternoon. Winds should eventually veer to wnw late
Saturday.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night-Sunday Vfr... Then MVFR CIGS possible late
Sunday. Winds veering from NW to e/ne Sat night. E/se gusts 15
to 20 kt Sun aft.

Sunday night-Monday MVFR or lower possible in showers and
fog.

Monday night MVFR in showers/possible thunderstorms. Llws
possible.

Tuesday-Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
Long period south to southeast swell between 3 and 5 feet
continues on the ocean waters. The combination of wind wave and
swell was allowing for seas to still fluctuate around 5 feet
mainly on the waters east of fire island inlet. Seas and swell
will be slow to subside tonight and could fluctuate between 4
and 5 feet. The small craft advisory for hazardous seas remains
in effect until 09z for the waters east of fire island inlet.

Winds and seas will then be below advisory levels until later
Saturday afternoon as a south to southwest flow strengthens and
seas build once again on the ocean waters. Then seas subside
Saturday evening as winds diminish.

With the current small craft advisory in effect will not issue
one for Saturday at this time.

Increasing easterly flow between a warm front approaching from the
south and high pressure off to the northeast could push ocean seas
up to 5 ft late day Sunday into Sunday evening.

Still high confidence in increasing s-sw flow pushing ocean seas
above 5 ft early next week, most likely by Mon night head of a cold
front, and lasting into at least Tue night if not Wed as moderate
post-frontal wsw flow continues. Could see gusts up to 25 kt there
late Mon night into Tue afternoon, with seas peaking at 5-7 ft tue
morning.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday.

A low pressure system approaching from the southwest could
offer potential for heavy rain and hydrologic impact on Friday,
but it is too early to know for certain.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am edt early
this morning for anz350-353.

Synopsis... Goodman/met
near term... Md/jm/met
short term... Met
long term... Goodman
aviation... Nv
marine... Goodman/jm/met
hydrology... Goodman/met


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi38 min SW 11 G 11 68°F 57°F1017 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi38 min SSW 4.1 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi38 min 71°F 54°F1017.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi38 min WNW 4.1 G 7 71°F 1018 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi38 min 71°F 53°F1017.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi36 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 52°F4 ft1017.8 hPa (+0.3)56°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi38 min SSW 6 G 8 67°F 51°F1017.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi38 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 61°F1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi35 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F54°F53%1017.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi35 minWSW 410.00 miFair73°F53°F50%1017.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi35 minSSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F55°F76%1018.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi35 minSW 810.00 miOvercast74°F52°F46%1017.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair66°F48°F54%1017.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi30 minSW 510.00 miFair68°F61°F78%1018.8 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair59°F53°F82%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmN3CalmCalmN43SW35SW4S5SW12
G17
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SW14SW13SW7SW7SW8SW6SW8
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3S4CalmSE3E3E55SE6E9SE10E13
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2 days agoNE11NE12N12N11NE14N13N14N15NE10NE9NE7NE9N6N7NE5E5N6E3E4SE3CalmCalmS3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:10 AM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:25 PM EDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.54.22.61.20-0.7-0.60.52.23.74.85.35.14.22.81.50.4-0.3-0.20.82.54.15.46

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
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Sat -- 12:39 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:55 AM EDT     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:16 PM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.5-1.6-2.4-2.6-2.2-1.4-0.60.51.61.91.61-0-1.2-2-2.3-2.1-1.3-0.50.51.72.32.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.