Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 7:18 AM EST (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 10:07AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 544 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 544 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal system will approach today into tonight with a wave of low pressure riding along it to our north Thursday morning. The low will drag a cold front across the waters Thursday afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region Thursday night and remain nearby through Saturday. A cold front will approach and move across the area on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231121
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
621 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A frontal system will approach today into tonight with a wave of low
pressure riding along it to our north Thursday morning. The low will
drag a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon. High pressure
will then build into the region Thursday night and remain
nearby through Saturday. A cold front will approach and move
across the area on Sunday. Another cold front and low pressure
system will move across the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is mostly on track. Updates were made to hourly
temperatures and dewpoints to capture the rapid rise of both
along the coast as winds increase from the south.

As low pressure moves across the great lakes region, associated waa
rainfall could occur this afternoon. Surface temperatures at this
time across parts of the lower hudson valley and adjacent areas of
nj and ct could still be at or around freezing. Freezing rain could
occur even with temps into the mid 30s due to the extended period of
sub-freezing temperatures leading up to today. However, widespread
rainfall does not look to be likely for any given area until
tonight. Therefore, will not issue a winter weather advisory for the
time being. If spotty freezing rain occurs, a special weather
statement could be issued to address impacts. Temps expected to
increase through the day with mid upper 30s by day's end across the
nw zones, ranging into the lower 40s for coastal zones.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Light rain spreads across the area tonight, and at the same time,
temperatures continue to rise on a s-sw wind flow. There's still
some concern that parts of the far NW zones could have surface temps
supportive of freezing rain at the time when rain becomes likely, so
will need to keep close watch on this potential.

Rain becomes more moderate early Thursday morning, and could be
heavy at times by mid-morning with strong isentropic lift and an
impressive llj. Approaching shortwave energy should enhance forced
ascent and also create weak destabilization aloft, increasing the
chances of heavier downpours. After collaboration with the
surrounding office, have issued a flash flood watch for Thursday.

Smaller stream and urban poor drainage flooding would be the main
threat. Timing of the greatest flood threat looks like morning to
midday. A cold front passes through during the afternoon with rain
probably coming to an end not too long after the passage, however a
strong upper jet streak shifts in with enhanced lift, continuing at
least chances of additional pcpn. Could be cold enough for a mix of
rain and snow for far NW areas late-day.

It should also become breezy, especially near the coast. Strong
winds with the LLJ will be not too far above the surface, however
with such a strong inversion, thinking is that none of the area
would likely see advisory-level gusts.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
High pressure builds into the area behind a departing cold front
Thursday night and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in dry and cold conditions. Highs on Friday will climb into
the lower and middle 30s, while highs will struggle to get out of the
20s on Saturday.

The high moves offshore Saturday night, allowing a an upper level
shortwave and associated surface cold front to move across the area
on Sunday. This could result in a few snow showers, will keep pops
at chance or slight chance for now. No accumulations at this time are
expected with any of the snow showers.

A stronger shortwave and associated frontal system will move across
the area early next week, bringing yet another chance of
precipitation to the region. There are differences with the exact
track and placement with this next system, so details remain
somewhat sketchy.

Temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday will climb 30s and lower
40s.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
A frontal system will approach today into tonight with a wave of low
pressure riding along it to our north Thursday morning.

Vfr conditions are expected through this morning. There is an
increasing chance for light rain and MVFR ceilings this
afternoon into evening, mainly nyc metro and west. There is a
low end chance for mix of sleet and freezing rain near kswf this
afternoon. Ifr or lower conditions likely develop from west to
east later this evening in steadier light rain. Ifr is generally
expected after midnight as the rain intensity begins to
increase.

S SW winds 10 kt for the morning push will increase to 10-15 kt and
gusts to near 20 kt late this morning and afternoon for south
coastal terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kt for coastal terminals
tonight, increasing to 15 to 20 kt towards the Thursday morning
push. Llws from SW winds of 50-55kt@2 kft developing for
coastal terminals by evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi37 min 29°F 36°F1028.9 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi31 min S 5.1 G 7
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi31 min SSW 8 G 9.9 31°F 33°F1030.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi31 min SSW 9.9 G 11 31°F 1029.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi31 min 31°F 37°F1029 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi29 min SSW 19 G 23 37°F 42°F4 ft1029.2 hPa29°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi31 min S 2.9 G 4.1 28°F 32°F1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi28 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F18°F61%1028.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi28 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F15°F50%1028.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi28 minSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F21°F64%1029.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi28 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F15°F50%1028.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi28 minSSW 1110.00 miOvercast30°F18°F61%1028.4 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi33 minS 310.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1028.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi23 minSSW 610.00 miFair31°F23°F72%1029.4 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW11NW6NW5W6W76W43SW4SW7W5SE3CalmS5S5S6S7S7S8S13S9S10S5
1 day agoW21
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2 days agoN9NE9N7NW11
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G29

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:33 AM EST     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:06 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:22 AM EST     5.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST     -1.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:02 PM EST     5.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.1-0.1-0.9-0.90.11.93.85.25.95.84.93.620.6-0.6-1.2-0.90.32.13.64.75.24.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:12 AM EST     -2.45 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:12 AM EST     2.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:06 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:28 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:44 PM EST     -2.66 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:17 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:45 PM EST     2.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-2-2.4-2.2-1.5-0.60.61.82.42.21.70.6-0.7-1.8-2.5-2.6-2.1-1.3-0.40.91.821.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.