Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:33PM Friday June 23, 2017 6:10 AM EDT (10:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 403 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Occasional gusts to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Numerous showers with isolated tstms, mainly this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 403 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves well north this morning. A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday. A series of weak fronts move through the area Sunday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg , NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230937
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
537 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A warm front moves well north this morning. A cold front
approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday. A series
of frontal boundaries will move across the tri-state area
Sunday through Tuesday. A large area of high pressure builds in
thereafter.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Region will be between bermuda ridging and deepening northern
stream longwave trough across the north central us today... With
one distinct southern stream shortwave riding northeast this
morning and then several weaker vorts riding northeast later
today. At the surface... A warm front washes out pushes north of
the region this morning... With likely pre-frontal trough
development in the lee of the appalachians this afternoon.

Deep southwest flow with sub-tropical connection will result
in an increasingly moist and humid airmass working into the
region today.

The initial shortwave rides north through the region this morning
into early afternoon. LLJ forcing weakens as this activity works
towards the region... But a marginally unstable and moist airmass in
place should support scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity to work northeast through the region. Overall appears
to be a marginal instability with moderate shear
situation... Which presents only a low probability of an
isolated strong to severe storm.

In the wake of this shortwave... Potential for partial clearing and
additional destabilization late this afternoon early evening across
nyc metro and points n&w. Although moderate instability uni-
directional shear levels could exists during this time... Appears to
be lack of a distinct focus or trigger for convection until the
evening. In fact... Subsidence and weak mid-level capping may
limit convective activity across the region until late. Based on
instability shear environment there is a threat for isolated
strong to severe storms during this time... Conditional on
sufficient heating and development along any differential
heating boundaries or elevation.

Otherwise... Considerable cloudiness and convective debris today
will keep temps in the lower to mid 80s for most of the region.

If enough breaks in the clouds materialize... Temps could rise
into the upper 80s across nyc metro and points n&w.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development today, due
to building southerly winds waves and a 2 ft long period se
swell.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Northern stream longwave trough continues to deepen into the
upper mississippi river valley and great lakes through the
period... With the shortwave remnants of cindy shearing northeast
towards the region late tonight into Saturday morning. At the
surface... A cold front over the great lakes will slide east
towards the region tonight... With the remnant circulation of
cindy riding NE towards the region along the front.

Leading edge of southern stream shortwave energy and pre-
frontal trough approach the region this evening. Will have to
watch for convection developing over central eastern pa this
afternoon... And whether line segments can translate east in the
moderate mid- level flow into the lower hudson valley NE nj
before instability begins to wane. A conditional low threat for
severe winds gusts exists mainly NW & W of nyc if this activity
survives.

The parade of shortwaves late evening into the overnight and
tropical airmass will keep a threat for iso convection with
heavy downpours overnight. Coastal stratus fog development
possible with high dewpoint airmass advecting across E LI se
ct late today this evening.

Main concern during this period will be approach of cold front
and remnant low of cindy late tonight Saturday morning.

Environment presents a threat for flash flooding along and just
to the south of the path of this low... With pwats in excess of
2+ inches and corfidi vectors indicating potential for slow
moving or back building convective elements. Also can't rule out
an isolated severe wind tornado threat if any MCS type activity
develops in a weak instability but high shear helicity and low-
lcl environment.

Drying conditions in the wake of the cold front and cindy
circulation Saturday afternoon... With highs in the mid to upper
80s.

A high risk of rip current is likely Saturday with building
southerly swells and wind waves.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Nwp is in agreement that a broad upper level trough will remain east
of the rockies into early next week. The h5 flow then flattens from
west to east as a cutoff low pres system moves through the western
canadian provinces... Eventually consolidating with a vortex over
northern quebec. This will sharpen the trough with its axis passing
through Tue night followed by weak ridging for the remainder of the
forecast period.

In terms of sensible weather... Not a whole lot to talk about. A
few cool frontal boundaries will pass through the local
area... The first Sunday aftn eve with just a chance of isold
showers. Mid level warming will keep instability in check so no
tstms in the forecast.

The second boundary approaches on Monday and is very slow to
move through the area. It may become hung up... Before pushing
east Tue night. Despite a decent shortwave and being in the rrq
of a 120+ kt upper jet... Moisture looks very meager... Thus have
kept the forecast dry. Moisture is still limited on tue... But
there could be enough for isold showers tstms in the aftn.

Dry and seasonable weather then returns for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front moves well north of the region on Friday
establishing a moist SW flow.

MainlyVFR for the early morning, however there is a chance
that some areas of ifr develop for a few hours, especially east
for kgon and kisp. Pockets of MVFR are possible again on fri
with CIGS around 2500 ft. There is also some potential for
eastern terminals to briefly go to MVFR in the late afternoon
due to low stratus. For now the tafs indicateVFR because
coverage is in question and too uncertain at this time. More
widespread subVFR conditions are expected late in the taf
period after 0z Saturday (see outlook below).

There will be a chance of isold-sct shwrs thru the day (Friday),
with the best potential for thunderstorms after 19z, particularly
in areas along and west of the hudson river.

Sea breeze flow will lessen overnight, and veer to the SW as the
flow weakens. The sea breeze may attempt to back winds closer to
the south again after 16z fri.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi41 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 74°F1009.5 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi41 min SSW 7 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi41 min 77°F 70°F1010 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi41 min WSW 8 G 9.9 1010.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi41 min 76°F 68°F1009.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi81 min SSW 12 G 14 69°F 67°F2 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.7)68°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi41 min S 6 G 8 75°F 68°F1009.8 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi26 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 68°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi52 min S 3.9 G 3.9 71°F 69°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi41 min S 5.1 G 6 74°F 78°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi80 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1009.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi80 minVar 610.00 miFair78°F70°F76%1009.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi80 minS 610.00 miOvercast71°F70°F96%1010.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi80 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F76%1009.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi80 minSW 410.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1009.5 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi75 minSW 510.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1011.3 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair72°F69°F94%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N5CalmSE3S7S9S8SE8SE8S11SE8SE10SE5E5CalmS6S7S6SW9SW8SW8SW8SW7SW9
1 day agoSW8SW7W6W9W12
G19
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SW18SW10SW10W9SW9SW10SW6W5W3N3N5NE5
2 days agoSW8SW11W13SW14W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Fri -- 02:16 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     6.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10-0.6-0.30.82.43.955.44.93.72.41.10.1-0.5-0.312.84.65.96.66.35.33.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:42 AM EDT     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:55 PM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT     2.55 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:18 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.4-2.5-2.1-1.4-0.50.81.71.91.60.8-0.5-1.5-2.1-2.4-2-1.3-0.40.92.12.52.31.70.4-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.