Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg borough, NJ

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Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday July 22, 2018 8:41 AM EDT (12:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 628 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers. Isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 628 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure continues to lift to the northwest today. A frontal boundary will remain west of the region through much of the week, while high pressure remains offshore. This will keep the waters under a prolonged period of southerly flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg borough, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221211
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
811 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure continues to lift to the northwest today. A frontal
boundary will remain west of the region through much of the
week, with an extended period of unsettled weather with the
chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. A prolonged period
of southerly flow will also result in high humidity.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure continues moving north and west this morning with
the heaviest rain across eastern long island and southeast ct.

Rain is becoming lighter across northern nj and nyc as the dry
slots works its way into the area.

Spc mesoanalysis shows some instability moving towards eastern long
island associated with a heavier band of showers. Therefore threat
remains for isolated thunderstorms and a low threat for a brief
tornado or waterspout.

Disturbances will round the upper low and a stream of tropical
moisture will lead to rounds of showers throughout the afternoon.

Uncertainty is high in this situation where showers look to be
widely scattered.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches today
due to large breaking waves of 5 to 7 ft in the surf zone.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
An unsettled pattern will be in place the next few days as the
region is sandwiched between a deep upper trough over the eastern us
and downstream high pressure stationed offshore. This setup will
result in deep tropical moisture and uncomfortably high dewpoints.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely through at least
Monday night, mainly west of nyc. There is not much synoptic forcing
however with deep tropical moisture in place, cannot rule out the
development of showers. With this setup, it is challenging to
pinpoint exactly where these showers and or thunderstorms may
develop.

The offshore ridge will then continue pushing westward leading to a
decrease in pops by Tuesday especially for the eastern zones, with
chance probabilities to the west of nyc.

Temperatures will be near seasonable but with very muggy conditions.

A high risk of rip currents will continue on Monday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
An upper level low moving across central canada on Wednesday
slides into the great lakes region by Thursday night. This will
push the trough and front closer to the region, with pops
increasing once again through this period. Its nearly impossible
this far out to time any showers and or thunderstorms and will
keep at least some 50% chance pops in the forecast. The trough
and front cross the region during the Thursday night Friday
morning timeframe with drier weather expected for Friday. There
may still be some lingering precipitation, so will continue to
maintain some low chance pops.

A tropical like airmass will remain in place next week with highs
each day in the 80s and lows mostly lower to mid 70s. Humidity
levels remain uncomfortable with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
A warm front will continue moving east of the region today.

Overall, low pressure stays west of the region. The low with
the front will weaken and track into the eastern great lakes
region today into tonight.

Conditions mainly MVFR early today and then improving toVFR.

Then, MVFR returns tonight into Monday. Showers have less
coverage today and increase tonight into Monday. Thunderstorms
isolated coverage today and tonight with more coverage expected
for Monday.

Amendments possible to refine locally lower or higher categories
and the timing of these categorical changes as well as timing
of wind gusts.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Monday-Thursday MVFRVFR with periods of shra and a chance
of tstms. S gusts 20-25 kt.

Marine
Gales have been converted over to an SCA on all waters.

Occasional gusts up to 35 kt will be possible through about 12z
for eastern long island sound and on the ocean waters east of
moriches inlet.

Winds will generally be at or just below SCA criteria. However,
due to a prolonged period of southerly flow and swells, ocean
seas will remain at SCA levels through the week.

Hydrology
The next few hours will have to watch the potential for heavy
rainfall across eastern long island and southeast connecticut
with increasing instability and bl convergence. Potential is
there for inch an hour rainfall rates as noted in dual pol
rainfall amounts to the south.

Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms through Monday
night could produce between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rainfall.

Minor urban and poor drainage flooding looks to be the main
threat, but isolated flash flooding is possible..

Tides coastal flooding
The threat of minor coastal flooding has ended as low pressure
lifts to the northwest and winds veer to the south.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk through this evening for nyz075-080-081-
178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... CB dw
near term... CB dw
short term... Cb
long term... Bc dw
aviation... Jm
marine... Dw
hydrology... CB dw
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi42 min 73°F 76°F1010.8 hPa (+3.0)
MHRN6 8 mi42 min S 7 G 18
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi42 min S 17 G 19 72°F 73°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi42 min SSE 21 G 24 73°F 1011.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi42 min 73°F 73°F1011.8 hPa (+2.7)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi42 min S 19 G 27 74°F 73°F1011.2 hPa (+2.8)70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi42 min SSW 14 G 19 73°F 70°F1012.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi42 min SSE 12 G 16 73°F 3 ft70°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi42 min SSW 7 G 13 71°F 79°F1010.7 hPa (+4.0)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi51 minSSE 11 G 175.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist72°F70°F94%1010.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi51 minno data8.00 miOvercast72°F70°F94%1010.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi51 minSSE 1410.00 miOvercast72°F72°F100%1011.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi51 minSSE 13 G 237.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1010.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi51 minS 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1010 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi46 minS 710.00 miLight Rain70°F69°F97%1011.7 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi52 minSSE 7 G 111.75 miLight Rain72°F69°F94%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11
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NE11NE11NE10NE10
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1 day ago3E4S4SE7S8SE10S11
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2 days agoNE9NE63E6SE6NE7S86
G14
S8SE8SE7S5S7S7S4S5S6S4CalmCalmW3W3NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:24 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:01 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.92.93.74.24.23.732.21.50.80.50.81.72.944.85.24.94.23.42.51.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:48 AM EDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:38 AM EDT     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-00.91.21.310.2-0.6-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.5-1.1-0.20.91.51.71.610.1-0.7-1.5-1.9-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.