Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:17PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 3:38AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 158 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 158 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will dominate through tonight. A low pressure trough will then develop north and west of new york city on Saturday. Another back door cold front will pass through Saturday night into Sunday morning, becoming nearly stationary just to the south and west through memorial day. Another cold front will move through from the west on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg borough, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 251803
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
203 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate into tonight. A low pressure trough
develops north and west of new york city on Saturday. A back
door cold front will pass through Saturday night into Sunday
morning, becoming nearly stationary just to the south and west
through memorial day. Another cold front will move through from
the west on Tuesday, followed by building high pressure for the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No significant changes with forecast generally on track. Just a
few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations,
specifically lower temperatures a few degrees on the forks of
long island.

Otherwise, surface high pressure was off the carolina coast and
remains through today. Meanwhile an upper ridge, with the axis
to the west, will flatten as a shortwave moves out of the upper
midwest. Dry and clear conditions remain through this afternoon.

Hybrid synoptic scale sea breeze regime should lead to gusty
conditions along the coast, and temps dropping through the mid
to late afternoon, perhaps more quickly than fcst indicates.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Mostly clear skies expected tonight, with some patchy ground
fog possible mainly in the interior valleys. Lows tonight should
be near 70 in nyc and in the 60s elsewhere.

As flat upper ridging moves east, chances for tstms should
increase through the afternoon on sat. GFS way too quick to
initiate storms, almost as soon as a sfc-based theta-e ridge
develops, despite upper ridging and associated subsidence still
overhead. Mid to late afternoon a more likely time frame for
convection as pw quickly increases to near 1.5 inches.

Cape shear values are only marginally supportive of severe wx--
more telling are microburst parameters indicating potential for
pulse severe with the strongest cells mostly NW of nyc. Some
cells could produce heavy rain, especially where repeat training
can take place. This may become more likely toward evening and
into Sat night as another back door cold front approaches and
corfidi vectors shorten.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A shortwave trough moving across the great lakes and into the
northeast from Saturday night through Sunday night will interact
with a back door cold front dropping across the region.

Thereafter, heights build across the eastern half of the country
with a tropical low potentially impacting the lower mississippi
and tennessee valleys. Global models are in very good agreement
this cycle, in particular the GFS and ecmwf. The ggem appears
to be too aggressive with several frontal waves developing along
the boundary to the south Sunday into Monday.

There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall Saturday
night into Sunday morning as a westerly upper flow and modest
instability raises the concern for training along the cold front
sagging south across the region. Severe weather seems unlikely
due to a weakly sheared environment, however, mixed layer cape
value around 1500 j kg lend to the potential for pulse
strong severe in the evening. In addition, pw values overnight
Saturday approach 2 inches.

Cold front works south of the area early Sunday morning.

However, post-frontal convection is likely to linger through the
morning as a frontal wave passes to the south. Surface high
pressure then noses in from the north through Sunday night. Weak
warm advection still lends to a low chance of showers and
perhaps drizzle light rain Sunday night in an easterly flow.

Outside of some scattered late day convection across the
interior ahead of a weak cold front on Monday, the remainder of
the period should be dry as high pressure builds to the north
and offshore by midweek.

Below normal temperatures for highs Sunday and Monday will
return to well above normal levels Tuesday, with a slight
downward tick Wednesday and Thursday as an onshore easterly flow
reestablishes itself.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure remains centered to the SE of the terminals
today. The high gradually shifts east tonight and Saturday. A
trough of low pressure develops west of the region on Saturday.

Vfr. SW winds increase to mostly 15-20 kt with gusts around 25
kt. Strongest winds at kjfk late this aftn early evening with
occasional gusts 30-32 kt possible. Winds gradually diminish on
tonight, then increase to around 10kt on Saturday.

Have included a tempo tomorrow morning for the nyc terminals as
well as kisp for the the potential for some vsby restrictions
due to haze.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 8 mi72 min WSW 11 G 17
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi72 min 84°F 64°F1013.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi72 min WSW 14 G 17 82°F 1014.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi72 min 78°F 61°F1014.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi62 min S 14 G 16 62°F 58°F1014.1 hPa59°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi72 min W 15 G 17 80°F 62°F1014.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi82 min SW 12 G 16 72°F 1 ft55°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi72 min W 12 G 15 80°F 64°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi51 minSW 13 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F51°F29%1013 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi51 minSSW 410.00 miFair85°F48°F29%1012.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi51 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F62°F60%1013.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi51 minSW 13 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F46°F25%1012.9 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi51 minWSW 10 G 2010.00 miFair85°F50°F30%1012.5 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi46 minSW 10 G 1810.00 miFair85°F54°F35%1014.7 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi57 minWSW 11 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds84°F50°F31%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS11SW5S7SW11
G15
SW10S11S13SW14
G22
SW11SW8SW8SW10SW6SW5SW5SW5SW7SW9SW11
G17
SW10SW11SW15
G21
SW13
G20
1 day agoNW4NW14
G22
NW11
G19
NW9
G17
NW11
G18
NW10W9W9W9W76W5NW8NW6NW6NW8NW6NW4N8N104
G18
N65
G15
Calm
2 days agoCalm4NE4N6N5E3SE4S5CalmCalmS3SW3SW3S5CalmN4SW5CalmW7NW9N13NW15
G21
NW11
G17
NW7
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:04 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 PM EDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.412.13.34.34.84.84.13.32.31.30.4-00.41.52.84.15.15.55.24.43.32.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:43 AM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:31 AM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-0.90.31.21.61.61.20.3-0.7-1.5-2.1-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.11.11.71.91.81-0.1-1-1.8-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.