Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:00PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 6:38AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 730 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Sunday...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Sunday through late Sunday night...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Sun..SE winds around 15 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then chance of rain.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft. Chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of snow after midnight.
ANZ300 730 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A significant winter storm will impact the waters tonight through Sunday. The storm will then deepen as it moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday night. Arctic high pressure will build in early next week. A frontal system will approach from the west on Wednesday, and may stall nearby on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg borough, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200137
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
837 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
A significant winter storm will impact the tri-state beginning
this evening and continuing through Sunday. The storm will
deepen as it moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday night.

Arctic high pressure will then build in early next week. The
next frontal system will approach from the west on Wednesday,
and may stall nearby Thursday into Thursday night. Arctic high
pressure is possible once again into late week.

Near term through Sunday
Based on 18z guidance and latest observations with rain snow
mix in the nyc metro area, have cancelled winter weather advisories
for metro ny and long island.

As the precipitation picks up in intensity the next couple of
hours expect a rain snow mix at the coast which quickly
transitions over to rain from south to north by midnight. There
will likely be adjustments to advisories warnings through the
night as the warmer air works across the region and a strong
southerly low-level jet works northward from the mid atlantic
states. East flow already pushing dew points to around 30
across coastal locations, a clear sign of a warming boundary
layer. Hires models keep most coastal locations above freezing
with the exception of the connecticut coast which may briefly
drop to around freezing with the onset of steadier precipitation.

Consensus track is right over nyc metro by Sunday, which will
likely draw the coastal front northward up into ct. The question
is how far north does the low-level warm air get across the
lower hudson valley, NE nj, and interior SW ct. There is no
question of a snow to rain transition across the entire area
with pronounced warming aloft, but rather does a enough low-
level cold air stay in place for a prolonged period of freezing
rain across the interior.

Once a changeover occurs to rain, it will be heavy, thus the
flash flood watch for coastal and urban areas. This in
collaboration with surrounding offices. Some elevated
instability could result in heavier rain in the morning due to
convection. 18z NAM has shifted heavy rain axis as far west
as nyc with 3 to 4 inches of rain. This is due to a feed of
subtropical moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates,
especially along the coast. May need to expand flash flood
watch across interior portions of ct.

Temps tonight rise from SE to NW overnight, and are based on
higher resolution guidance. Temps likely remain below 32 across
far interior NW zones.

Then as expected, temps plummet Sunday afternoon as frigid air
rushes in behind this storm. The bulk of the precipitation
winds down, but any lingering precip could change back to a mix.

Short term Sunday night
Dangerously cold air rushes in as temps plummet into the teens
and single digits. These temps along with a blustery NW wind
will make it feel well below zero all locations. In fact, wind
chill advisories may be needed for portions of the area as wind
chills approach or reach -15.

Long term Monday through Saturday
The coldest air mass of the season so far can be expected in the
wake of our departing winter storm, as arctic high pressure builds
into the area. Temperatures for Monday will be well below
climatological normals in the upper single digits to mid teens.

Initially strong and gusty winds behind the exiting low pressure
will lead to sub-zero wind chill values through the day, continuing
into Monday night as temperatures fall into the single digits. Some
moderation of the air mass then occurs Tuesday into Tuesday night as
high pressure shifts east of the area, allowing a return to
southwest flow and at least subtle warm advection.

The next potential storm system then takes shape for mid week though
significant differences still exist in timing and track of the low
center. With initially sub freezing temperatures across portions of
the area, there is a possibility of wintry mix, particularly across
the interior. As the system departs Thursday into Friday, at least a
brief snowfall will be possible. Thereafter, expect a brief period
of gusty winds, followed by the possibility of another arctic air
mass for late week.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
***high impact weather into Sunday***
a significant winter storm moves into the mid-atlantic states
tonight, then passes over near long island from Sunday morning
into early Sunday afternoon. The low then tracks into the gulf
of maine by early Sunday evening.

Ifr or lower conditions develop with the onset of rain,
possibly mixed with snow for a few hours at long island city
terminals and snow mixing with sleet rain at ct terminals and
snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain at lower hudson valley
terminals this evening. Precipitation changes to all rain at
coastal ct terminals khpn overnight, and transitions to mainly
freezing rain at kswf. The freezing rain continues at kswf until
the precipitation ends around midday, with rain continuing
elsewhere until ending early Sunday afternoon. The precipitation
could be locally heavy at times late tonight early Sunday
morning. Conditions become MVFR early-mid Sunday afternoon and
becomeVFR by mid-late Sunday afternoon (at except at kgon which
should not improve toVFR by the end of the TAF period.

Expected snow sleet and ice accumulations:
kjfk < 1" none
klga < 1" none
kewr < 1" none
kteb 1-2" none
khpn 1-2" < 0.1"
kisp none none
kbdr 1" none
kswf 4-6" 0.25-0.4"
a flash freeze is likely at all airports where there is any
water residual moisture on untreated surfaces Sunday afternoon.

E-ne winds at 10-15kt this evening, becoming e-se overnight at
10-15kt, with llws (35-50kt at 2000 ft), except at kswf, where
they become light and variable with no llws.

Winds should be out of the sse-ssw Sunday morning around 10-15kt
with continued llws (40-65kt at 2000 ft), except at kswf where
winds remain light and variable with no llws.

Winds become NW throughout by early-mid afternoon, and increase
to 15-20g25-35kt by mid-late afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night-Monday night Vfr. NW winds g25-35kt,
with gusts abating by late Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night Vfr. SW winds g20-30kt possible
Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Thursday MVFR or lower developing in wintry mix
changing to rain Wednesday morning. Rain may then change back
to a wintry mix before ending on Thursday. Llws possible
Wednesday Wednesday evening. N-nw winds g15-20kt possible
Thursday.

Marine
A winter storm is expected to impact the waters this weekend.

Initially easterly winds and gusts will increase into the evening,
with gales on the ocean waters, eastern long island sound and bays.

Sca conditions are expected elsewhere. Winds may briefly decrease
and shift as the low center passes over the waters by morning,
before quickly strengthening to gales from the northwest on all
waters into Sunday as the low departs. Ocean seas will quickly build
and remain elevated.

As temperatures quickly fall into Sunday night, lingering gusty
winds and cool ocean temperatures will lead to the potential for
moderate vessel icing on the ocean waters. A freezing spray advisory
is now in effect. Gales then likely continue into Monday, and
with persistent strong and gusty northwest flow, blow out tides
will be possible with the Monday low tide cycles.

Winds and seas will then begin to gradually trend down Monday
night into Tuesday evening, before returning to at least sca
levels into mid to late week as the next low pressure system
impacts the waters.

Hydrology
Flash flood watch has been posted across the coastal sections.

The focus of the watch is for areas that changeover to rain
quickly. 1.5 to 2.5 inches is possible, and heavy rain
coinciding with high tide may exacerbate flooding Sunday
morning.

There is too much uncertainty to determine exact liquid amounts
and resulting impacts with mid to late week system.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor to locally moderate coastal flood impacts are expected
during the Sunday morning high tide cycle.

Departures of one to one and a half feet, locally two feet, are
needed for minor benchmarks to be reached and two and a half to
three feet are needed for moderate benchmarks to be reached.

The highest threat for moderate coastal flooding is along
jamaica bay and western great south bay where a coastal flood
watch has been issued. Elsewhere, widespread minor to locally
moderate coastal flooding is expected, with the moderate impacts
most likely along the south shore of ct, orient point, and
south shore of peconic bay estuary.

Heavy rain during the time of high tide will likely exacerbate
street flooding across coastal areas.

Otherwise, beach shoreline flooding with minor erosion impacts
likely along the oceanfront (7-11 ft surf), orient pt and ct
shoreline (2-4 ft surf).

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday
afternoon for ctz009>012.

Coastal flood advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
ctz009>012.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for ctz005.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for ctz007>010.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for ctz006.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for ctz011-012.

Ny... Flash flood watch from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday
afternoon for nyz071>075-078>081-176>179.

Coastal flood advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est Sunday for nyz071-
073-078>081-176-177.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for nyz067>070.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 9 am est Sunday for nyz072-
074-075.

Coastal flood warning from 4 am to 11 am est Sunday for nyz178-
179.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday
afternoon for njz004-006-104>108.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for njz002-103.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for njz004-104-
105-107.

Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 9 am est Sunday for njz006-
106-108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz335-338-345-
355.

Gale warning from 6 am Sunday to 6 am est Monday for anz335-
338-345-355.

Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz330-340-350-353.

Freezing spray advisory from 6 pm Sunday to 6 am est Monday
for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Md pw
near term... Dw pw
short term... Pw
long term... Md
aviation... Maloit
marine... Md
hydrology... Pw
tides coastal flooding... Nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi53 min 38°F 40°F1015.8 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi53 min E 12 G 17
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi53 min ESE 14 G 18 40°F 38°F1016.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi53 min ESE 19 G 21 40°F 1016.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi53 min 38°F 40°F1016.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi33 min E 18 G 23 42°F 42°F4 ft1015.4 hPa37°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi53 min E 6 G 8.9 37°F 35°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi32 minENE 7 G 195.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F35°F89%1015 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi32 minno data1.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1015.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi32 minE 146.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F35°F89%1015.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi32 minENE 112.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1015.8 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi32 minENE 111.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1015.5 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi38 minNE 51.00 miSnow32°F32°F100%1014.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi27 minE 13 G 209.00 miLight Rain40°F37°F89%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW6W6W5W5W6NW3N6N7N8NE6NE6N6N3CalmE7SE5E8E8E6E6E75E7
G19
1 day agoE6E4E4NE5N7N8N6NE4NE5N5NE6NE6N5N3N3W33SW4W9W9W9W8W7W9
2 days agoNW7NW12NW14N11NW15
G25
N10NW10NW8N7N6
G17
N8N10N7NE7NE6E53Calm4S7S7S3SE5SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Sat -- 05:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:56 AM EST     5.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:54 PM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM EST     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.501.32.94.35.35.65.24.22.91.60.5-0.4-0.7-0.11.22.63.84.54.63.92.71.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
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Sat -- 02:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:56 AM EST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:37 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:23 AM EST     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:33 PM EST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-0.9-0.10.91.92.221.30.2-1-1.8-2.3-2.2-1.7-1.1-0.20.91.61.61.20.3-0.8-1.6-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.