Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:14AM||Sunset 5:00PM||Saturday January 19, 2019 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC)||Moonrise 4:27PM||Moonset 6:38AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg borough, NJHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kokx 200137|
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
837 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
A significant winter storm will impact the tri-state beginning
this evening and continuing through Sunday. The storm will
deepen as it moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday night.
Arctic high pressure will then build in early next week. The
next frontal system will approach from the west on Wednesday,
and may stall nearby Thursday into Thursday night. Arctic high
pressure is possible once again into late week.
Near term through Sunday
Based on 18z guidance and latest observations with rain snow
mix in the nyc metro area, have cancelled winter weather advisories
for metro ny and long island.
As the precipitation picks up in intensity the next couple of
hours expect a rain snow mix at the coast which quickly
transitions over to rain from south to north by midnight. There
will likely be adjustments to advisories warnings through the
night as the warmer air works across the region and a strong
southerly low-level jet works northward from the mid atlantic
states. East flow already pushing dew points to around 30
across coastal locations, a clear sign of a warming boundary
layer. Hires models keep most coastal locations above freezing
with the exception of the connecticut coast which may briefly
drop to around freezing with the onset of steadier precipitation.
Consensus track is right over nyc metro by Sunday, which will
likely draw the coastal front northward up into ct. The question
is how far north does the low-level warm air get across the
lower hudson valley, NE nj, and interior SW ct. There is no
question of a snow to rain transition across the entire area
with pronounced warming aloft, but rather does a enough low-
level cold air stay in place for a prolonged period of freezing
rain across the interior.
Once a changeover occurs to rain, it will be heavy, thus the
flash flood watch for coastal and urban areas. This in
collaboration with surrounding offices. Some elevated
instability could result in heavier rain in the morning due to
convection. 18z NAM has shifted heavy rain axis as far west
as nyc with 3 to 4 inches of rain. This is due to a feed of
subtropical moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates,
especially along the coast. May need to expand flash flood
watch across interior portions of ct.
Temps tonight rise from SE to NW overnight, and are based on
higher resolution guidance. Temps likely remain below 32 across
far interior NW zones.
Then as expected, temps plummet Sunday afternoon as frigid air
rushes in behind this storm. The bulk of the precipitation
winds down, but any lingering precip could change back to a mix.
Short term Sunday night
Dangerously cold air rushes in as temps plummet into the teens
and single digits. These temps along with a blustery NW wind
will make it feel well below zero all locations. In fact, wind
chill advisories may be needed for portions of the area as wind
chills approach or reach -15.
Long term Monday through Saturday
The coldest air mass of the season so far can be expected in the
wake of our departing winter storm, as arctic high pressure builds
into the area. Temperatures for Monday will be well below
climatological normals in the upper single digits to mid teens.
Initially strong and gusty winds behind the exiting low pressure
will lead to sub-zero wind chill values through the day, continuing
into Monday night as temperatures fall into the single digits. Some
moderation of the air mass then occurs Tuesday into Tuesday night as
high pressure shifts east of the area, allowing a return to
southwest flow and at least subtle warm advection.
The next potential storm system then takes shape for mid week though
significant differences still exist in timing and track of the low
center. With initially sub freezing temperatures across portions of
the area, there is a possibility of wintry mix, particularly across
the interior. As the system departs Thursday into Friday, at least a
brief snowfall will be possible. Thereafter, expect a brief period
of gusty winds, followed by the possibility of another arctic air
mass for late week.
Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
***high impact weather into Sunday***
a significant winter storm moves into the mid-atlantic states
tonight, then passes over near long island from Sunday morning
into early Sunday afternoon. The low then tracks into the gulf
of maine by early Sunday evening.
Ifr or lower conditions develop with the onset of rain,
possibly mixed with snow for a few hours at long island city
terminals and snow mixing with sleet rain at ct terminals and
snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain at lower hudson valley
terminals this evening. Precipitation changes to all rain at
coastal ct terminals khpn overnight, and transitions to mainly
freezing rain at kswf. The freezing rain continues at kswf until
the precipitation ends around midday, with rain continuing
elsewhere until ending early Sunday afternoon. The precipitation
could be locally heavy at times late tonight early Sunday
morning. Conditions become MVFR early-mid Sunday afternoon and
becomeVFR by mid-late Sunday afternoon (at except at kgon which
should not improve toVFR by the end of the TAF period.
Expected snow sleet and ice accumulations:
kjfk < 1" none
klga < 1" none
kewr < 1" none
kteb 1-2" none
khpn 1-2" < 0.1"
kisp none none
kbdr 1" none
kswf 4-6" 0.25-0.4"
a flash freeze is likely at all airports where there is any
water residual moisture on untreated surfaces Sunday afternoon.
E-ne winds at 10-15kt this evening, becoming e-se overnight at
10-15kt, with llws (35-50kt at 2000 ft), except at kswf, where
they become light and variable with no llws.
Winds should be out of the sse-ssw Sunday morning around 10-15kt
with continued llws (40-65kt at 2000 ft), except at kswf where
winds remain light and variable with no llws.
Winds become NW throughout by early-mid afternoon, and increase
to 15-20g25-35kt by mid-late afternoon.
Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night-Monday night Vfr. NW winds g25-35kt,
with gusts abating by late Monday night.
Tuesday-Tuesday night Vfr. SW winds g20-30kt possible|
Wednesday-Thursday MVFR or lower developing in wintry mix
changing to rain Wednesday morning. Rain may then change back
to a wintry mix before ending on Thursday. Llws possible
Wednesday Wednesday evening. N-nw winds g15-20kt possible
A winter storm is expected to impact the waters this weekend.
Initially easterly winds and gusts will increase into the evening,
with gales on the ocean waters, eastern long island sound and bays.
Sca conditions are expected elsewhere. Winds may briefly decrease
and shift as the low center passes over the waters by morning,
before quickly strengthening to gales from the northwest on all
waters into Sunday as the low departs. Ocean seas will quickly build
and remain elevated.
As temperatures quickly fall into Sunday night, lingering gusty
winds and cool ocean temperatures will lead to the potential for
moderate vessel icing on the ocean waters. A freezing spray advisory
is now in effect. Gales then likely continue into Monday, and
with persistent strong and gusty northwest flow, blow out tides
will be possible with the Monday low tide cycles.
Winds and seas will then begin to gradually trend down Monday
night into Tuesday evening, before returning to at least sca
levels into mid to late week as the next low pressure system
impacts the waters.
Flash flood watch has been posted across the coastal sections.
The focus of the watch is for areas that changeover to rain
quickly. 1.5 to 2.5 inches is possible, and heavy rain
coinciding with high tide may exacerbate flooding Sunday
There is too much uncertainty to determine exact liquid amounts
and resulting impacts with mid to late week system.
Tides coastal flooding
Minor to locally moderate coastal flood impacts are expected
during the Sunday morning high tide cycle.
Departures of one to one and a half feet, locally two feet, are
needed for minor benchmarks to be reached and two and a half to
three feet are needed for moderate benchmarks to be reached.
The highest threat for moderate coastal flooding is along
jamaica bay and western great south bay where a coastal flood
watch has been issued. Elsewhere, widespread minor to locally
moderate coastal flooding is expected, with the moderate impacts
most likely along the south shore of ct, orient point, and
south shore of peconic bay estuary.
Heavy rain during the time of high tide will likely exacerbate
street flooding across coastal areas.
Otherwise, beach shoreline flooding with minor erosion impacts
likely along the oceanfront (7-11 ft surf), orient pt and ct
shoreline (2-4 ft surf).
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.
Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.
Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday
afternoon for ctz009>012.
Coastal flood advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for ctz005.
Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for ctz007>010.
Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for ctz006.
Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for ctz011-012.
Ny... Flash flood watch from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday
afternoon for nyz071>075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal flood advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est Sunday for nyz071-
Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for nyz067>070.
Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for nyz071.
Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 9 am est Sunday for nyz072-
Coastal flood warning from 4 am to 11 am est Sunday for nyz178-
Nj... Flash flood watch from 1 am est Sunday through Sunday
afternoon for njz004-006-104>108.
Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for njz002-103.
Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Sunday for njz004-104-
Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 9 am est Sunday for njz006-
Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz335-338-345-
Gale warning from 6 am Sunday to 6 am est Monday for anz335-
Gale warning until 6 am est Monday for anz330-340-350-353.
Freezing spray advisory from 6 pm Sunday to 6 am est Monday
Synopsis... Md pw
near term... Dw pw
short term... Pw
long term... Md
tides coastal flooding... Nv
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ||8 mi||53 min||38°F||40°F||1015.8 hPa|
|MHRN6||8 mi||53 min||E 12 G 17|
|SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ||8 mi||53 min||ESE 14 G 18||40°F||38°F||1016.9 hPa|
|ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ||10 mi||53 min||ESE 19 G 21||40°F||1016.5 hPa|
|BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY||14 mi||53 min||38°F||40°F||1016.1 hPa|
|44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor||26 mi||33 min||E 18 G 23||42°F||42°F||4 ft||1015.4 hPa||37°F|
|NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA||42 mi||53 min||E 6 G 8.9||37°F||35°F||1013.8 hPa|
Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ||13 mi||32 min||ENE 7 G 19||5.00 mi||Light Rain Fog/Mist||38°F||35°F||89%||1015 hPa|
|New York City, Central Park, NY||19 mi||32 min||no data||1.50 mi||Light Snow Fog/Mist||34°F||30°F||89%||1015.6 hPa|
|New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY||21 mi||32 min||E 14||6.00 mi||Light Rain Fog/Mist||38°F||35°F||89%||1015.9 hPa|
|New York, La Guardia Airport, NY||22 mi||32 min||ENE 11||2.00 mi||Light Snow Fog/Mist||34°F||30°F||89%||1015.8 hPa|
|Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ||23 mi||32 min||ENE 11||1.50 mi||Light Snow Fog/Mist||34°F||32°F||92%||1015.5 hPa|
|Morristown Municipal, NJ||24 mi||38 min||NE 5||1.00 mi||Snow||32°F||32°F||100%||1014.9 hPa|
|Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ||24 mi||27 min||E 13 G 20||9.00 mi||Light Rain||40°F||37°F||89%||1014.1 hPa|
Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||E||E||NE||N||N||N||NE||NE||N||NE||NE||N||N||N||W||SW||W||W||W||W||W||W|
|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||N||NW|
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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