Monday, March19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Keansburg borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:09PM Monday March 19, 2018 11:56 PM EDT (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:25AMMoonset 9:29PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1024 Pm Edt Mon Mar 19 2018
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain and snow in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 30 to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, snow and sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sleet in the morning. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 30 to 35 kt early. Waves around 2 ft. Snow, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 1024 Pm Edt Mon Mar 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds from the northwest through tonight. An area of low pressure will approach from the southwest on Tuesday. Stronger low pressure will then develop off the southern mid atlantic coast Tuesday night, move slowly southeast of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, and pass to the east on Thursday. High pressure will then build from southern canada on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keansburg borough, NJ
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location: 40.53, -74.14     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200240
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1040 pm edt Mon mar 19 2018

High pressure builds down from south central canada into
Tuesday as a coastal low develops off the mid atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning, then tracks east as it weakens. Another
stronger coastal low develops along the mid-atlantic coast
Tuesday night, then lifts northeast to south of nova scotia by
Thursday morning, then into the canadian maritime provinces
through Thursday night. High pressure will then build from
southern canada from Friday through Saturday. Another storm
system will may impact the area late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
The forecast is mostly on track. Only minor changes to hourly
forecast were made to reflect the latest trends.

Weak northern stream ridging builds in tonight keeping things
dry. Will see an increase in high clouds from SW to NE through
the night. Lows tonight will be around 5-10 degrees below

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
Details are coming in to better focus on a couple of coastal
lows that will impact the tri-state Tuesday-Wednesday night.

The first low is in response to a 700-500 hpa shortwave being
sheared by a cutoff low over canadian maritimes. As a result the
low weakens as it exits the mid-atlantic coast, so only expect
light warm advection induced precipitation over mainly the S 1 2
of the area. It does appear that a warm nose works in
around just above 850 hpa so do expect some sleet to mix in with
a snow rain mix (rain mixed in mainly due to march Sun angle).

Expect any accumulations on Tuesday to be limited to mainly far
sw parts of the cwa
this warm nose lingers over most of the area into Wednesday
morning (except for maybe far NW zones), so do expect sleet to
limit accumulations Tuesday night, limiting them to generally
less than 1 inch.

The second coastal low forms off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday
night in response to a combination of a shortwave diving se
from the canadian plains and another shortwave coming in from
the four corners region. As the coastal low deepens Wednesday,
it taps into colder low level air to the north, coupled with
dynamic cooling, should change the precipitation to all snow
across the region. There is the potential for a period of heavy
wet snow across the region from late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday evening. In addition gusty winds of 25 to 40 mph could
combine to bring down tree limbs and power lines. The snow
tapers off from W to E Wednesday night as the coastal low pulls
away to the ne.

As a result have issued a winter storm watch for the region from
6pm Tuesday-midnight Wednesday night for nyc NE nj lower hudson
valley for 5-11 inches of snow and from 4am Wednesday-6am
Thursday for long island and S ct for 4 to 9 inches of snow.

Long term Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds into the region from southern canada on
Thursday, providing generally dry conditions through the first half
of the weekend. Some weak forcing may spark off a few snow showers
or flurries late Saturday with an upper level low off the new
england coast, but not enough confidence to put it in the forecast
as of yet. However, the bigger story will be the potential for
another low pressure system to affect the region for the second half
of the weekend.

There are significant differences in the model solutions, both in
the deterministic and ensemble models, for the second half of the
weekend and the potential low pressure system to affect the area.

The main differences stem from orientation of a strong 1043 mb
surface high pressure over southern canada Saturday that digs all
the way south into florida and the southeast us coast. The 19 12z
ecmwf pinches off a piece of this high Saturday night, giving an
area of low pressure developing over the mid-west a path between the
two highs to move toward our region. The 19 12z GFS does not pinch
off this high as notably as the ecmwf, with more of a cold air
damming signature noted on Sunday, when the ECMWF pushes the low off
the carolina coast, with our region on the northern fringes of the
precipitation field. The low is then forecast to pass well south of
our area and then east out to sea Sunday night. The GFS suppress the
low well south and weakens it. This latest model run of the ECMWF is
more in line with the gfs. Given forecast uncertainty, will not make
much in the way of changes.

Proximity of the low to the coast will determine precipitation
types. If the ECMWF is to be believed, the track is a bit different
to previous storms, at least with its approach to the area, with a
more west to east track, then head northeast east, as opposed to
development or redevelopment off the mid-atlantic coast and heading
northeast. However, it will be cold enough for some snow.

Temperatures during the long term will average below normal with a
persistent northwesterly flow.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure gives way to a series of lows passing to the
south and east of the area, the first Tuesday evening, and then
another on Wednesday.

Vfr. Light northerly winds will become NE overnight and then
gradually ramp up during the day Tuesday. Gusts to around 20 kt
are expected at the coastal terminals in the afternoon and
increasing to 25-30 kt Tuesday night. Inland gusts will be a bit

There is a chance of a light wintry mix developing Tuesday
evening. Confidence is too low at this time to mention in tafs.

The brunt of the precipitation is currently forecast to develop
on Wednesday.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night MVFR conditions possible with a light wintry
mix. NE winds g20-30kt nyc metro coastal terminals.

Wednesday Snow and sleet with ifr or lower conditions
likely. NE winds g20-30kt.

Thursday-Friday Vfr. N winds g15-20kt on thu.

Saturday MVFR possible late in chance of rain snow.

Winds and seas will remain tranquil early tonight as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. However, the gradient between low
pressure off to the south and west and high pressure to the
northwest will increase. Therefore, winds will then gradually begin
to strengthen late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will
allow winds and seas to increase to sca-levels Tuesday
afternoon and evening for the ocean and eastern sound, with gale
to storm conditions developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Have issued a storm watch for the ocean for Tue night into wed, as e-
ne winds rapidly increase in response to the development of the
coastal low. Expect gusts mainly 35-45 kt during this time, and peak
gusts of 45 to 50 kt may be possible on the outer ocean waters. Gale
conditions are expected for the eastern sound and the bays of long
island overall during this timeframe. Gales should then linger on
the ocean through much of Wed night.

Winds diminish Thursday as low pressure heads away from the coastal
waters. SCA winds possible early in the morning for the ocean waters
and peconic and gardiner's bay. Thereafter, winds should remain
below 25 kt through Saturday night. Winds increase late Saturday
night into Sunday morning as another low pressure system approaches
the coastal waters. A period of SCA winds are possible from Sunday
morning through Sunday night, mainly on the ocean waters as the low
pressure moves toward the region.

Waves diminish on Thursday as well, with ocean waters coming down
below 5 ft Thursday night. Waves then remain below 5 ft through
Saturday, building again Saturday night in response to approaching
storm. 5 ft waves possible late Sunday morning.

It will be mainly dry through tonight.

There is the potential for a prolonged period of precipitation from
Tuesday through Wednesday night. Total liquid equivalent precip
should range from 0.5 to 1.25 inches, falling mainly as snow and
sleet, so no hydrologic impact expected.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged NE N flow will have water levels building Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Tidal departures of generally only 1 to 1
1 2 ft are needed for minor flooding for many locations Tuesday
night through Wednesday night, and 2 to 3 ft for moderate.

At this point, mainly minor impacts are expected during the
Tuesday night high tide as NE winds are just beginning to ramp
up to SCA gale force.

With NE gale to storm force winds continuing into the late
Wednesday morning early afternoon high tide cycle, widespread
minor to moderate impacts are likely for the Wed late
morning early afternoon high tide. Latest guidance has trended
upward with surge for this tidal cycle. At this point, highest
confidence is in the southern bays of nassau and western suffolk
county reaching moderate flood thresholds, but this threat may
need to be expanded a bit depending on model surge guidance

Another round of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding
likely for the Wed night high tide cycle. There is more guidance
spread with this tidal cycle, due to competing factors of tidal
piling and energetic wave energy build water levels along the
coast, versus N NW gales pushing water away from the coast. Will
have to continue to monitor this tidal cycle, as guidance
typically has a low bias on the back end of multi tidal cycle
surge events.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from late Tuesday night through late
Wednesday night for ctz005>012.

Ny... Winter storm watch from late Tuesday night through late
Wednesday night for nyz078>081-177-179.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for nyz067>075-176-178.

Coastal flood watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for nyz080-179.

Nj... Winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... Gale watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night
for anz330-335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory from noon to 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz330-

Storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for

Storm watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night
for anz350-353.

Synopsis... Maloit jp
near term... Jc maloit
short term... Maloit
long term... Jp
aviation... Dw
marine... Je
hydrology... Maloit jp
tides coastal flooding... Nv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi39 min N 6 G 8 39°F 40°F1015.8 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi39 min N 11 G 15
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi45 min 39°F 41°F1014.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi39 min N 8.9 G 11 39°F 1015.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 14 mi39 min 39°F 41°F1015.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi27 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 39°F 41°F1015.2 hPa29°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi39 min E 1.9 G 4.1 35°F 39°F1016 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi39 min Calm G 1 36°F 42°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ13 mi66 minN 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy38°F3°F23%1014.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi66 minNNE 510.00 miFair38°F7°F27%1014.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi66 minENE 910.00 miA Few Clouds35°F12°F38%1015 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi66 minNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds38°F12°F34%1014.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi66 minVar 410.00 miFair37°F6°F27%1014.6 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1015.6 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ24 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair30°F15°F55%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS5CalmCalmN4CalmN7N7N11N13N11N74NW6W7NW12
1 day agoN8NW6N10NW9NW10NW10N10N11NW12
2 days agoNW17

Tide / Current Tables for Great Kills Harbor, New York
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Great Kills Harbor
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Mon -- 04:24 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:01 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:16 PM EDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
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Mon -- 03:06 AM EDT     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:23 PM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.