Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gilgo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:37 PM EDT (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:52PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 329 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers late.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 329 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the midwest. The front passes through the waters Thursday night. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gilgo, NY
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location: 40.54, -73.43     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 222016
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
416 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure continues to move offshore tonight as a cold front
approaches from the midwest. The front passes through the area
Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region for Friday
and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the region late
Saturday into Sunday. The front will stall to the south of the
region Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through Monday
night. High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Both the upper and surface ridges will translate east tonight
with a return southerly flow developing by this evening. This
will result in gradually increasing low-level moisture with
overnight lows near or just above seasonable levels.

Warm advection on the backside of the departing ridge will
allow for increasing mid and upper clouds overnight along with
a chance of showers. The best chance will be from nyc and points
west as drier will be slow to erode to the east. Rainfall
amounts will be light and generally less than a tenth of an
inch.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Early morning showers will become isolated by afternoon as the
warm advection wanes. Any rain in the morning should be on the
light side.

The potential for a round of more significant convection arises
during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Thursday.

An upper low north of the great lakes on Thursday will track
ese, sending height falls into the region. This coupled with
moistening low-levels will destabilize the airmass. Their are
mixed signals from the guidance during this period as to whether
all the ingredients will come together at just the right time
to erode a low-level cap and overcome dry air in a deep-layered
westerly flow aloft. Additionally, the best dynamics will
reside north of the area. Mid level lapse rates do steepen to
around 7-8 deg c km and 0-6 km bulk shear is around 50 kt. Href
members show varying solutions with most in the camp of the
convection being scattered in nature. There is also the question
as to whether the shear is sufficient to maintain a cold pool
to push through the maritime airmass. So yes, there could be a
few strong and or severe thunderstorms, but that should mainly
be to the north and west of nyc. The convection will likely
dissipate as it approaches the coast. The best timing looks to
be between 6 and 10 pm, from west to east.

Warm advection during the first half of the day will result in
mostly cloudy skies, but there should be some breaks in the
afternoon. This will also be a factor into how much we can
destabilize.

Gusty s-sw winds ahead of the front will get up to 25 mph,
mainly near the coast.

Highs will be nearly seasonable levels, in the upper 60s at the
coast, to the mid 70s north and west of nyc.

Cold front passes through between 7 and 10 pm Thursday night
with gusts NW up to 25 mph developing toward daybreak.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
High pressure builds across the region on Friday and most of the day
on Saturday, so expected dry conditions with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s on Friday and upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday. A
cold front will then approach the region Saturday evening and
overnight, bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the
area. The front should push south on Sunday keeping the area under a
slight and chance probabilities of showers Sunday and into memorial
day. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
temperatures on memorial day in the mid to upper 70s.

Dry conditions return on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will start out in
the low 70s then warm up into the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure moves southeast of long island tonight. A frontal
system approaches from the northwest late tonight into Thursday with
a cold front moving across late Thursday evening.

MainlyVFR through the TAF period outside of a few possible
showers late tonight into early Thursday which could present
localized brief MVFR conditions.

Nw winds near 10 kt eventually back to more SW direction, decrease
to 5-10 kt, with sea breezes late this afternoon into early this
evening. Flow becomes light and variable tonight while staying SW at
some sites and increases again on Thursday to around 10-15kt with
some gusts to 20 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi37 min W 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 58°F1023.3 hPa (-0.3)42°F
44069 21 mi67 min SW 9.7 G 14 63°F 65°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 24 mi47 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 60°F 58°F1 ft1023.5 hPa (-0.3)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi43 min NE 6 G 7 70°F 59°F1024 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi43 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 71°F 65°F1024.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi43 min 70°F 59°F1023 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi43 min S 8 G 8 70°F 1022.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi43 min 73°F 64°F1022.9 hPa
MHRN6 39 mi43 min NE 2.9 G 4.1
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi43 min NNW 6 G 9.9 72°F 54°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi44 minN 1010.00 miFair72°F33°F24%1022.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi46 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F39°F30%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW6NW7NW4NW4NW7NW6W3W4CalmNW6N8N13
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N8N9N8NW10
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1 day agoS10S10SW7S6SW4S5W4NW14
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2 days agoS23
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SW12SW10SW11
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SW6S5S5S7S7S8SW6SW7SW6SW8S10S11S12--S13S13

Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:45 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.10.90.60.30.1-00.10.30.60.911.110.80.60.40.20.20.20.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:44 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.21.91.40.90.40.1-00.20.71.11.51.81.81.71.30.90.60.30.30.50.91.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.