Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:30 PM   Moonset 2:54 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1021 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 1021 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Weak high pressure builds in from northern new england through tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching cold front.

FXUS61 KOKX 171435 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1035 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in from Northern New England through tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure offshore, southeast of Cape Cod, continues to gradually moves away from the area today. High pressure centered over eastern Canada was ridging down along the coast behind the low, allowing for some clearing, especially of the lower levels, as mixing has increased.

Shortwave ridging over the area will continue to allow the high to build into the area from southeastern Canada through the day. This will promote a drying of the column, though a continued onshore northeast flow will likely allow cloud cover to persist much of the day. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the low to middle 70s.

Cloud cover and dry conditions will persist tonight as high pressure continues to allow for a northeast flow, though it will be weakening. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Weak high pressure looks to remain in control on Saturday with a weakening frontal system approaching from the west. As the cold front approaches during the day, some widely scattered rain showers will be possible for extreme western portions of the area. Much of the energy associated with the shortwave trough and frontal system looks to consolidate in a low pressure system that develops well south of the area over the Southeast US and Carolina Coast into Saturday night and Sunday.

The high pressure remains in control through the weekend with the low passing far enough to the south as to not have much of, if any, impact to the area. More pronounced mid-level ridging approaches the area from the west Sunday and into Sunday night, which strengthens the surface high pressure over the area. This should allow for further drying and a reduction in cloud cover through the weekend.

A persistent E/NE flow through the weekend will prevent temperatures from rising too much. Highs Saturday will be in the middle to upper 60s with highs Sunday warming up a bit into the middle 60s to middle 70s. Lows each night will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*

*Mainly dry and above normal for the period.

*Late week cold frontal passage, preceded by showers and thunderstorms.

A relatively quiet period is expected with ridging both aloft and at the surface to start the week. It will also be warm, especially away from the immediate coast where an onshore flow will keep it closer to normal. The warmest day will likely be Thursday ahead of the cold front, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The potential is there for larger departures.

A southern branch upper trough lifts NE out of the Great Basin early next week, interacting with some northern branch short wave energy.
There are some timing issues with the associated frontal system due to this interaction. A cold frontal passage is expected sometime Thursday, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Primarily followed the NBM, but 00Z global models so some slowing of the system and tried to reflect that trend. While there is also a chance of convection Wednesday, the better chance looks to be Thursday.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure becomes nearly stationary well southeast of the area, while high pressure builds along the New England coast.

VFR through this evening. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight, first across the eastern terminals during the early morning hours, and then around 14-15Z Saturday for the NYC and Lower Hudson terminals. Timing will likely need to be refined.

NE winds 10-15kt with gusts G15-20kt into early afternoon. Winds then likely veer to the E/SE at 10 kt or less later in the afternoon as the surface ridge axis builds into the area. Wind become light and variable tonight and then NE around 5 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts at KJFK and KLGA might be only occasional. Shift to SE may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR likely. Slight chance of showers, mainly N and W of the city terminals. Patchy light rain and/or drizzle possible as well.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR in the morning, then VFR. MVFR or lower could persist at the eastern terminals.

Monday-Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Only minor changes were made to the winds and gusts across the waters, and the SCA continues on the ocean waters as waves will remain at or above 5 feet through the day. Waves gradually diminish below SCA thresholds this evening for the western ocean zone though the central and eastern ocean zones will take more time to drop below SCA threshold. All waters drop below SCA conditions by Saturday and remain below through the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

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Fri -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:05 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:25 AM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:54 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
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