Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 3:58 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 102 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 102 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains in place along the new england coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 041701 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 101 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place along the New England coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Minor update to this afternoon temperatures and dewpoints to better reflect current conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US today, with surface high pressure in place along the New England coast.
This will maintain a persistent onshore flow through the weekend, and lead to cooler than typical temperatures for early May.

Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure associated with a shortwave riding over the ridge passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, sending a slow approaching frontal boundary toward the region. While a spotty shower can't be ruled out this afternoon, mainly in far western portions of the region, the day will be predominantly dry. Expect a fair amount of cloud cover, thickening into this evening as the ridge axis shifts offshore, allowing deeper moisture to advect into the area in the SW flow. This should lead to eastward expansion of shower coverage off to the west that very gradually begins to work in tonight, likely after midnight even for the farthest west locales.

With the return flow and cloud cover, temperatures this weekend run up to 10 degrees below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s today, falling into the 40s overnight into Sunday AM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By Sunday, the shortwave associated with an upper low over Central Canada attempts to break down the ridging over the East Coast, with the surface front draped along the Midwest starting to make progress eastward. Guidance continues to advance this boundary quite slowly, with the fropa perhaps not occurring locally until Monday. Ahead of it, plenty of deep moisture in the column and weak lift should instigate shower activity by the mid morning, at least for the western half of the region, before spreading east by the afternoon. Showers may continue intermittently into Sunday night before tapering west to east.
QPF appears light with this activity, generally ranging from a quarter to a half inch.

The shortwave energy pushes offshore Monday with the surface boundary stalling to our south and west. Ridging builds once again across the Great Lakes in response to a large upper low over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. Latest guidance is less enthused about energy riding under this and interacting with the stalled boundary, which would allow a return of steadier rain chances depending on placement. Trimmed back PoPs Monday night as a result, though still not out of the question a few showers make it into Long Island from the south. After the chilly Sunday in the low to mid 50s for most, temperatures rebound on Monday in SW flow back into the 70s across the interior and areas away from maritime influence.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday begins with high pressure to our north and a stationary front across the Mid-Atlantic. This front is expected to slowly push north towards us as a warm front through the day. Looks like most of the day will be dry, but still a low threat of showers over roughly the western half of the forecast area - closer to the deeper moisture and lift.

A ridge aloft flattens Tuesday night into Wednesday with a surface low tracking east across the northern Great Lakes. The warm front will continue to try to push into the forecast area during this time, however a synoptic onshore flow off of cold waters along with influence from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with both serve to hold this front to our south. Chance of showers for this period, and maybe even a rumble of thunder Weds afternoon with elevated instability pushing in from the west.

The surface low to our north then weakens with the flattening ridge aloft Weds night into Thursday with another wave of low pressure heading east - this time tracking through the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The boundary to our south doesn't make much progress as the surface low is weak along with no significant llj to help push the front northward. PoPs however increase in the afternoon into nighttime with the approach of the surface low and associated moisture and lift.

Best guess right now is that this system shifts through at some point Thursday night into Friday, but there's uncertainty with this timing. There's also the potential of yet another wave of pressure forming to our west and maintaining rain chances through all of Friday.

NBM was used for temperatures through the long term.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains in place through tonight.

VFR into early evening, then MVFR develops later this evening, with cigs lowering to IFR overnight. A shower possible starting late this afternoon, however rainfall doesn't become likely until Sunday afternoon.

ESE-SE winds around 10kt through the TAF period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of IFR onset may be forecast to be a couple of hours too soon, and even possible that cigs do not lower to IFR at all tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely mainly in the afternoon. SE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in the morning, then MVFR/VFR in the afternoon.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR or lower with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions can be expected through the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly or southeasterly flow across the waters and speeds generally at or under 10 kt.

Winds and seas should then remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next week with a weak pressure gradient in place.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides will increase with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night along with the threat of minor coastal flooding each night through this period and possibly including Wednesday night as well.

A coastal flood statement has been issued for this evening's high tide cycle across Southern Fairfield County with benchmarks expected to be just reached in a few spots. Statements may be expanded to include Southern Westchester and Southern Nassau Counties for Sunday night. Advisories may eventually be needed for these zones and Southern Queens Monday night, and even more so for Tuesday night.
Statements may be needed during this period for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fort Hamilton
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Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:39 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:42 PM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Hamilton, The Narrows, Brooklyn, New York, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Sat -- 01:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:08 AM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:26 AM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:58 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:42 PM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:57 PM EDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2), knots

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