Friday, May24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Eustis, NE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:56PM Friday May 24, 2019 7:56 AM CDT (12:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:24AMMoonset 10:18AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eustis, NE
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location: 40.6, -100     debug

Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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Fxus63 kgid 241155
area forecast discussion
national weather service hastings ne
655 am cdt Fri may 24 2019

Aviation update...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 555 am cdt Fri may 24 2019
focusing solely on these first 24 hours here, the "good news" for
most folks reading this is that the vast majority of the area
looks to be dry storm-free the vast majority of the
time... Especially during the daylight and evening (pre-midnight)
hours. However, at least low modest chances for
showers thunderstorms do gradually return overnight, especially
late. Although the details of "exact" location and thunderstorm
coverage is fairly uncertain even at this close time range (this
will be a recurring theme most likely in the coming days), much of
mainly our southern coverage area (cwa) is currently under in a
marginal risk of severe for the overnight hours. However, some
models (including 6z NAM and gfs) also suggest that even our
northwest counties may a few storms very late tonight, so don't
get too caught up in the "exact outlines" of the marginal risk
area just yet. In other departments today, expect plenty of sun
most of the day after a very cloudy (and in places somewhat foggy)
start, and although high temps were knocked down slightly from
previous forecast, still expect widespread mid-upper 70s for
highs, which we haven't seen in the tri cities in six days!
taking a look at recent and current weather as of 5 am:
it was certainly a busy Thursday afternoon-evening as several
"elevated hailers" dropped hail up to golf ball size across
various parts of the CWA to the north of a warm front draped
slightly to our south. We also (briefly) had a rather unexpected
tornado watch overnight for our 4 southeastern-most counties, as
the far north end of a quasi-linear convective system (qlcs)
rakes across this area on its way from southwest ks into northeast
ks southeast nebraska. At this time, we aren't aware of any big
issues from these storms within our domain, as they likely remain
very-slightly elevated. While much of the CWA received a solid
0.50-1.50" of rain over the past 24 hours (isolated amounts to
2"), we are fortunate to be looking at a decent 24+ hour break in
appreciable rainfall for most of the area. Felt comfortable
letting go of the latest flash flood watch for our far
southeastern counties given the mainly dry next 24+ hours. At this
time, our only official hydro product is a river flood warning
for the south fork solomon at osborne ks (minor flooding).

In the bigger picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor imagery
and short-term model data reveal a persistent southwesterly flow,
with one shortwave trough of note heading northeast toward the
western dakotas, while a broader large-scale trough persists over
the western conus. At the surface, a weak low pressure center
around 1010 millibars is noted near the northeast side of our cwa,
with a weak trough axis trailing to its south bringing a shift to
light westerly breezes as it passes, mainly around 10 mph or less.

Low temps this am are on track to bottom out in the 50s most
areas, but ranging from upper 40s far west, to near-60 southeast.

Some patchy fog was added to the early-am forecast to account for
visibilities mainly now in the 2-4 mile range some areas, although
some slightly lower (but non-dense) visibilities were noted a bit

Now looking ahead forecast-wise through these next 24 hours...

today (through around 7 pm):
in short, have maintained and or altered the forecast to be dry
cwa-wide, although it could be a close call at times especially
extreme southeast where the back edge of mainly light showers
could flirt with that area this morning, and perhaps some
redeveloping storms late this afternoon. However, with large-scale
subsidence largely favored today, expect quite a bit of sunshine
most areas after our cloudy and slightly-foggy start, although
some enhanced mid-high clouds could be more prevalent far east-
southeast. At the surface, breezes today should average no more
than 10-15 mph most areas, with direction gradually transitioning
from more westerly this morning to more southwesterly and even
southerly this morning. Assuming we get as much Sun as expected,
am aiming for the mildest readings in 6 days for much of the cwa,
with mainly mid-upper 70s.

This evening-tonight:
as mentioned above, while small chances for showers storms
gradually return through the night, the majority of the CWA will
almost surely stay dry through the majority of the night. Largely
prefer the 6z namnest for its depiction here. Especially the pre-
midnight hours should stay mainly dry, and officially, only have a
small chance for showers storms this evening in our extreme
southeast (mitchell county area mainly). However, heading into the
late night hours, a northward return of mainly elevated
instability (perhaps as much as 1000-2000 j kg) should bring at
least isolated to scattered storms back into the picture, some of
which could be at least marginally severe, with hail the main
threat. For what it's worth, the latest rap13 clearly favors our
ks zones for the greatest late-night storm chances, while other
models suggest even our northwest could see some activity. As a
compromise, have at least 20 percent chances all areas late-night,
but highest 30-40 percent pops focused south. In other areas,
generally light southerly breezes are expected overnight. Low
temps are aimed somewhere in the 50s most areas, but ranging from
perhaps upper 40s far north west-central, to low 60s far
southeast. On one last note, later shifts may need to add at least
patchy fog to late tonight into Sat am for especially southern
zones, but did not give much consideration to this just yet.

Long term (Saturday daytime through Thursday)
issued at 555 am cdt Fri may 24 2019
general overview of this 6-day period:
this forecaster wishes he had more time to attempt to dive into
some greater detail on our multi-day risk of at least limited
severe storm potential, but with the aforementioned
"distractions" and busy-ness that has been this night, will have
to keep things in fairly general terms. And honestly, to quote spc
from the text of the latest day 3 outlook... "mesoscale details
will likely drive any localized focused corridors of heightened
severe potential, and subsequent model guidance should offer these
details with time." in other words (and in my words): we really
need to take this type of weather pattern "one day at a time"
details-wise, as this type of super-active pattern is well-known
for the storm activity of one day night having implications on
subsequent severe potential location the next day (due in large
part to boundary positions etc.) this being said, each day
Saturday-Monday, at least a portion of the CWA is included in a
marginal-to-slight risk of severe storms, so things look to be
busy. For now, these look to be pretty typical large hail damaging
wind setups, and although a tornado threat is probably non-zero
at times, nothing "screams" a truly heightened tornado threat at
this point.

Cannot rule out some severe chances beyond Monday as well, but
things to look to start settling down by mid- week (at least for a
short time), and this latest forecast package (at least for now)
features a dry forecast for wed-thurs of next week.

Possible continued hydro concerns:
not to be lost in the multiple chances for severe storms, we will
need to keep an eye on flooding possibilities. While parts of
especially our far southeastern CWA continues to be fairly
saturated, the overall-minimal rainfall expected these next 24
hours should help things again "stabilize" a bit. However, already
by Saturday late afternoon and especially evening, these same
southern areas especially may be prone to more heavy rain, and
subsequent shifts may need to consider another flash flood watch
for parts of mainly our southeast for this time frame.

Temperature overview:
those watching closely will notice very little change between this
forecast package and the previous. In short, this means we are
looking at an overall-seasonable regime for late may, with highs
on most days (in most places) somewhere between the mid-70s and
low-80s, and overnight lows mainly in the 50s to around 60. At
this point, the best-candidate for overall-warmest day looks to be
Monday (memorial day) with the greatest coverage of low-mid 80s.

Likewise, the best-candidate for overall-coolest days of these six
looks to be Tuesday, with most of the CWA only aimed between the
mid 60s and mid 70s... Plenty of uncertainty here though at this

In closing, stay tuned to our future discussions and the latest
spc outlooks for more details on our Saturday-Monday severe
weather chances, as just not enough time tonight to really dig in.

And remember, please try to take these outlooks chances as "one
day at a time" as you realistically can given decent potential for
mesoscale influences on short-term (yet to be resolved) time

Aviation (for the 12z kgri kear tafs through 12z Saturday)
issued at 654 am cdt Fri may 24 2019
general overview:
right away this morning, expect at least 2-3 hours of ifr lifr
ceiling and MVFR ifr visibility before low clouds and fog should
burn off quite rapidly by 14-15z. Thereafter, confidence is
reasonably-high inVFR ceiling visibility through the remainder
of the period, although will need to watch the late night early
Saturday am hours for the possibility of at least MVFR fog. Also
late tonight Saturday am, there is an outside chance of at least
isolated shower thunderstorm activity, but because this chance is
rather low and mainly close to the end of the period, did not even
have the confidence for "vicinity" (vcts) just yet.

Wind-wise, speeds through most of the period should average under
12kt, with direction transitioning from westerly right away this
morning to more southerly this afternoon and into tonight.

Gid watches warnings advisories
Ne... None.

Ks... None.

Short term... Pfannkuch
long term... Pfannkuch
aviation... Pfannkuch

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lexington, Jim Kelly Field Airport, NE17 mi61 minWSW 60.15 miFog0°F0°F%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from LXN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmNE4NE3E4NW5NE12NE11
1 day agoW16
2 days agoE11

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Hastings, NE (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Island, NE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.