Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 4:21 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 647 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers early this morning, then showers late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 647 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the new england coast weakens locally as it shifts farther offshore today ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary returns as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.

FXUS61 KPHI 051053 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 653 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north through the region today, and then a cold front works its way through the region late Monday and Monday night. This boundary will become stationary over the area through the mid-week period. A series of disturbances will track along this boundary through the middle of the week. A stronger area of low pressure moves through the region on Thursday, followed by a cold front on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast on track this morning as of 7 AM. No changes made.
Previous full discussion follows...

A cloudy, showery, and dreary Sunday morning is ongoing. Weak warm advection overruning a very moist and cool marine layer will result in showers continuing for most of today. Forcing will be maximized over the Lehigh Valley, where the bulk of the showers will be through the morning. As a shortwave moves over the region, the area of showers will push east through the afternoon and evening. Precipitation will be rather light overall and more of a nuisance than anything. Outside of showers, it will be a cloudy and cool day yet again.
Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, though as a warm front tries to push north, some areas in lower Delmarva will climb into the upper 60s and perhaps get near/above 70.

The bulk of the rain moves out late this evening, but a cold front approaching tonight will reinforce lift and generate some further showers. Some of the model soundings show some elevated instability, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder late tonight, mainly within Delmarva and the southern half of New Jersey (basically along and south of that aformentioned warm front).
Not expecting any severe weather or anything like that though.
Some patchy fog is possible with a moist boundary layer. Fog chances are maximized mainly north and west of the Philadelphia metro (basically north of the warm front). It will be a mild night, with lows in the mid to upper 50s/low 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Cold front will be west of the area Monday morning. Southerly flow ahead of that front will usher an increasingly humid airmass into the region with surface dewpoints rising into the 60s. Areas of fog will develop in the morning, and then will lift and dissipate by midday or so. The cold front passes through the region Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Some shortwave energy passing through the region will help kick off afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southern portions of the forecast area.

The front becomes stationary south of the region Monday night through Tuesday night. High pressure builds north of the region, and an onshore flow develops, bringing somewhat cooler and drier air down into the region. Another disturbance approaches from the west late Tuesday and Tuesday night, touching off another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A prolonged period of unsettled weather on tap for the latter part of the new week. A series of frontal boundaries and weak low pressure systems will pass through the region during this time. The first system is an area of low pressure that will pass north of New Jersey Wednesday morning, and this will drag a cold front through the region late in the day and at night. Some rain is possible in the morning, and then another round of showers and mostly isolated thunderstorms will affect the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

The next area of low pressure will organize and develop over the Midwest, and a warm front will develop out ahead of this system and lift towards the local area late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. This will touch off some more showers and isolated thunderstorms during this time. A secondary low will form over the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the primary low, and this low works its way across the region Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. More widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect the area during this time.

The primary low passes north of the region on Friday with yet another round of showers as a cold front passes through the region.

Temperatures during the period will start out warm with highs in the 80s on Wednesday,and then temperatures will trend closer to normal on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR to start for most, though ceilings could lift a little bit to MVFR especially at KMIV/KACY for the afternoon.
Most of the guidance has these lifting ceilings falling just short of the I-95 corridor, but cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR there. More steady showers should move through the Lehigh Valley, keeping IFR conditions there for most of the day, with some visibility restrictions. Winds out of the southeast around 10 kt. Low confidence.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions with low clouds and patchy fog.
South/southeast wind around 5 kt. High confidence in at least IFR. Low confidence in how low CIGs /VSBYs drop.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Unsettled weather on tap for most of the new week. Overall, VFR during the day, but sub-VFR conditions in SHRA from time to time. Nighttime sub-VFR conditions in fog/stratus also expected. Best chances for widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA will be Thursday afternoon.

MARINE
No marine headlines expected through tonight as seas will be 2 to 4 feet with winds out of the east/southeast around 10-20 kt. Periods of showers expected, with a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms early Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...A prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions in fog throughout the week, especially at night. Best chances for widespread showers on Thursday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Market Street Bridge
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Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
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Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Philadelphia
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Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:10 PM EDT     6.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
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Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

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