Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trexler, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:22PM Sunday March 26, 2017 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:14AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1236 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of light rain.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Light rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds around 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely...mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...then 1 ft or less... Then around 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1236 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over new england will gradually slide offshore today...allowing a warm front to our south to approach the region tonight into Monday. A couple of weak frontal boundaries will be in the vicinity Monday night and Tuesday...followed by a cold front moving through during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trexler, PA
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location: 40.6, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261804
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
204 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure is our primary weather influence today.

Low pressure from the mississippi valley into the great lakes
on Monday will draw a warm front northward through most of our
region. The low will move into southern new england Tuesday
night pulling the frontal system off the coast. Canadian high
pressure will edge into our area Wednesday and Thursday.

Thereafter, low pressure in the ohio valley on Friday should
exit seaward from the mid altantic coast next Saturday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
930 am update: no changes to the forecast this morning. Onshore
flow to the north of a backdoor cold front is inundating the
region this morning with low clouds and occasional drizzle.

Mount pocono remains below freezing, so a light glaze may occur
on trees, but no societal impacts have been observed or reported to
this point. Conditions will change little through the day, with
temperatures unable to rise in the low clouds and maritime
origins of the low-level flow. Expect little to no measurable
precipitation through the daytime hours as the midlevels should
remain relatively dry.

Previous discussion...

high pressure across quebec/maine will move offshore today while
weak low pressure slowly moves to near chicago by evening. A
steady onshore flow will continue across our area thru the day.

This will promote an abundance of low clouds and fog along with
some light rain and drizzle at times. Pops will be greatest
across the northern areas where we have hi chc pops and the pops
taper off s/e to slgt chc across SRN de. Unlike Saturday,
temperatures will be below normal, with highs only in the 40s in
most areas, and a few low 50s over delmarva.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
The overall pattern will not change much tonight with high
pressure north/east and weak low pressure moving closer across
the great lakes. The onshore flow will continue and the chances
for more measurable rains will increase tonight. The best
chances will again be across the southern poconos, lehigh valley
and north nj where we will have categorical pops. The pops
decrease back to likely over the del valley and cntrl nj and the
chc pops over south nj and SRN de. Patchy fog and drizzle will
occur between the bouts of rain. Overall QPF will not be that
great, a few hundredths across the south and up to 1/4 inch up
north.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
500 mb: a southern stream weakening short short wave crosses our
area Monday followed by a strengthening northern stream short wave
Tuesday, that closes off, east of new england Wednesday. The next
southern stream short wave probably passes to our south at the
end of the week. Westerly flow should follow for the weekend before
a trough tries to form in the mississippi valley early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Tuesday 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, near 5 above normal Wednesday, nearly normal Thursday
through Saturday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/26 gfs/nam MOS Monday-Tuesday,
then 00z/26 mexmos Tuesday night and thereafter wpc guidance
Wednesday-Saturday.

The dailies...

Monday... Despite winds turning south or southeast, the question
becomes how much warming can occur with a lack of mixing and
considerable cloud cover. Showers possible with the short wave
passage and waa, especially early in the day. Dense fog may
form along the warm front and along the water where the
dewpoints exceed the ssts in the 40s.

Tuesday... Dense fog potential early in the day. Now that we've had
almost a day of southerly flow, it may be easier to warm to the
guidance values. There should be a batch of showers and isolated
tstms associated with a developing negative tilt northern
stream short wave that will shove all the moisture out to sea at
night with a wind shift to westerly. (ec and to an extent the
ggem are 6-12 hrs slower but have sided with the previous fcst
for continuity as well as the 00z/26 GEFS which emphasizes low
pressure tracking ewd from northern pa to near pou by 23z/27.

Wednesday... Partly sunny and nice. Northwest wind gusty 20 to
30 mph.

Thursday... Fair. Northwest gusty 15 mph.

Friday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of precipitation, mostly rain
if it occurs. Lots of uncertainty on track of the event with a
wide ranging set of model solutions , inclusive of a little wet
snow potential near and N of i80. Low confidence and have
followed wpc guidance. GEFS confluence of the NRN and SRN stream
is across northern pa.

Saturday... Clearing after any pcpn ends in the morning. Below
average confidence on pcpn occurrence.

Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

For the 18z tafs... General MVFR conditions will continue through
early this evening, likely deteriorating to ifr or possibly lifr
during the overnight hours. Moderate confidence that light rain
will move in between 03z and 06z at krdg/kabe and by 09z at
kttn/kpne/kphl/kilg. There may be slow improvement to MVFR after
sunrise, but scattered showers may continue through the morning
hours. Less confidence of precip at kacy/kmiv. Winds generally
east 10-15 kts through early evening with a trend toward S or
ssw late tonight through the morning hours tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday thru Monday night... Periods of MVFR/ifr in low clouds
and fog, with showers especially to start the day.VFR CIGS may
still develop Monday afternoon from around i-95 and points
southeast. South to southwest wind. Confidence: average
Tuesday... Ifr/lifr st/fog possible in the morning but would probably
becomeVFR CIGS in the afternoon, with a period of MVFR/ifr
conds possible in shower. During the afternoon-evening, there
is 800j MLCAPE modeled, some instability and a neg tilt short
wave so a TSTM is possible. Confidence: average
Wednesday...VFR. Northwest gusty 25 kt. Confidence: average
Thursday...VFR. Northwest gusty 15 kt. Confidence: average

Marine
We will keep the SCA flags as they are on the waters and just
raise the next segment with the 330 am issuance, instead of
waiting until 6 a.M. The onshore flow will continue today and a
gradual building of seas will continue. Scattered showers and
patchy fog expected.

Outlook...

Monday thru Wednesday... Seas may remain elevated Monday into
Tuesday, and the SCA may need to extended into this period.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to winds and seas on
Wednesday, which may be near SCA thresholds. Confidence: average
Thursday... Sub-sca. Confidence: above average

Tides/coastal flooding
Onshore flow is expected through Monday morning, with easterly
wind gusts up to 25 mph at times today. Astronomical tides are
also increasing, coincident with the new moon this Monday, march
27. The estofs remains most aggressive of the guidance suite,
with near minor flooding for the sunrise Monday high tide along
the de and nj oceanfront, and it has has outperformed the other
guidance recently. Both the sit multi model review and GFS etss
are more conservative. Estofs trends for positive departures
(surge) appear to be lessening. The wind will also be trending
more parallel (southerly) to the shore by sunrise Monday, so any
minor tidal inundation flood risk remains a low confidence forecast
with no action at this time.

Climate
March as a whole for phl, is still on track to average one half
to 1 degree below normal, despite the warmth of ydy through
Wednesday.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz450>453.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Cms/o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag
aviation... Cms/drag/o'hara
marine... Drag/o'hara
tides/coastal flooding... Drag
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 53 mi48 min 43°F 42°F1028.5 hPa (-1.3)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 54 mi72 min 42°F 44°F1029.3 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport, PA8 mi53 minE 1010.00 miOvercast43°F33°F71%1029.5 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA12 mi57 minE 1010.00 miOvercast43°F33°F68%1029.4 hPa
Quakertown Airport, PA18 mi53 minE 710.00 miOvercast41°F35°F81%1029.1 hPa
Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA23 mi54 minESE 610.00 miOvercast43°F37°F82%1028.7 hPa

Wind History from XLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE8NE14
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NE7NE6NE9NE8NE9NE7NE7NE8NE12E6E10
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1 day agoS10
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S8S6S8S9CalmCalmS4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S4SW4CalmSW3S4SW4CalmSW4
2 days agoW8SW6W8W4SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3SW4SW4S11
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Sun -- 12:35 AM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:54 PM EDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
66.15.44.33.12.11.10.30.21.63.75.26.16.5653.92.81.80.80.10.82.74.5

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Philadelphia
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Sun -- 01:14 AM EDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:32 PM EDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.66.265.142.91.90.90.20.82.74.65.86.66.65.84.73.72.71.60.60.41.73.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.