Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trexler, PA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:26 AM EDT (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:36PMMoonset 6:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 916 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 916 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches from the southwest today slowly moving across the waters into this evening. A cold front moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds north of the region through late week as low pressure moves along a stalled frontal boundary south of the area. A stronger area of high pressure builds from the west through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trexler, PA
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location: 40.6, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 251016
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
616 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
A warm front is expected to lift north through the region today. It
will be quickly followed by a cold front late tomorrow or tomorrow
night. A large area of high pressure will gradually build east
towards the region and eventually off shore through early next week.

A weak cold front should arrive in the area late this weekend,
followed by another warm front on Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure across new england will move away today while a
warm front approaches from the south. A moist circulation off
the ocean will keep plenty of clouds across the area today. The
front will add enough lift to trigger frequent showers N W early
today and then across most areas later this morning. By
afternoon, the showers will move northward bringing the
opportunity for some breaks over DELMARVA and SRN nj.

Temperatures will remain mostly in the 60s across the north and
in the mid upper 70s over the delaware valley and much of nj.

It's possible that some low 80s could be realized if the sun
returns earlier than expected. Winds will be mostly E SE this
morning and then turn srly this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
The ill-defined warm front will be crossing the area tonight.

Winds will remain southerly or turn a little swrly after is
passes through. Warm and humid air will be across the area
overnight. There will be some showers across the northern areas
early tonight, but overall, most areas will only see scattered
showers. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 60s across the
north and low 70s over DELMARVA and SRN nj.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Summary: the main period of concern is Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front. After that, the weather pattern should
be relatively quiet until we get to early next week when another
round of precipitation is possible primarily from Monday into
Tuesday.

Details:
Wednesday and Wednesday night... The models are coming into
better agreement of the cold frontal passage generally through
the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of this front, expect
more than sufficient lift and instability for a period of
thunderstorms. As for the thunderstorm hazards:
heavy rain... Precipitable water values are, no surprise,
expected to be well above normal. However, storm motions will be
fast, likely 30 mph or more. So while the storms may be
efficient rain producers, the threat for flooding is limited.

This is assuming however, that the front will be as progressive
as currently expected. If the progress slows, there is some
potential for training storms which would once again increase
the threat for heavy rain.

Severe storms... The threat for severe thunderstorms is
conditional on the timing of the front. If the front arrives
late at night, instability will be more limited and thus the
threat for severe will be limited. Models seem to be converging
on the evening into overnight timing, so it does look like there
will be at least a slight risk of severe storms across our
area. As has been the case with almost all of our convection
this summer, NAM model soundings are significantly more unstable
than other guidance. Forecast CAPE values, even going with the
more stable GFS model soundings, are more than enough for tall
updrafts. While the highest values of 0 to 6 km shear will be to
our north, shear over our area should still be sufficient for
persistent enough updrafts to support some severe threat. The
primary hazard looks to be strong winds as this looks like a
qlcs pattern. The low level shear, at least in our area, doesn't
look high enough for a significant tornado threat, but we will
continue to watch this closely. Finally with hail, while some
small hail is possible, the CAPE profiles in the hail growth
layer are rather thin, so the threat for severe hail looks to be
limited.

Thursday and Friday... Once the front is south of our area, it
may stall, though there remains some uncertainty with just how
far south it will be before it stalls. A pair of weak lows are
expected to propagate along the front through the early weekend.

Depending on how far south the front is, we could see some of
the wrap around precipitation in our area through this time.

Given the uncertainty though, stayed close to the previous
forecast, with the main chances on Thursday night.

Saturday through Tuesday... .A weak cold front is expected to
pass through Saturday or Sunday (considerable timing differences
between the models), but without any southerly return flow
setting up ahead of the front, expect this to be a dry frontal
passage. Monday into Tuesday, a low should be lifting out of the
great plains into the great lakes region, depending on how far
east the track is, we could see a warm front lift through the
region during this time.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Poor flying conditions much of today as a warm front affects
the area. Mostly MVFR with the possibility for some ifr for much of
the morning. Frequent rains showers will affect N W terminals before
dawn, then fill in across most areas for the rest of the morning.

Improvement will take place from S to N late this morning and into
the afternoon with a return toVFR in most areas. Sct showers could
still bring lower conditions however. Winds mostly E SE through the
morning and then S for the afternoon.

Tonight... Rather low confid fcst with a continuation of deep srly
flow across the area. CIGS will probably decrease to MVFR, but the
areal extent of any showers is not certain. Some of the NAM guidance
is showing that ifr is possible. Mostly S winds around 10 knots
overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Periods of MVFR and even ifr
conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of a cold front. The storms and front will be progressing
from west to east. The prime period for any thunderstorms at
the TAF sites should be between 18 and 03z, with a shift to
northwesterly winds coming just behind the storms, and a shift
to northerly winds coming after 06z. Gusty winds will be
possible in the vicinity of any storms and for a brief period
behind the front. Moderate confidence.

Thursday through Sunday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. There
is a chance for showers on Thursday night which could result in
lower conditions. Winds should be light and variable through
the period. Moderate confidence.

Marine
It appears that the SCA conditions across delaware bay may
last a bit later than earlier expected. We'll extend the SCA flag
until 15z for now. Decent E to SE flow is keeping sustained winds 15
to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 kts across the waters early today.

Sca conditions on the ocean today and tonight with winds decreasing,
but seas remaining above 5 ft. Showers much of the morning, ending
from S to n.

Outlook...

Wednesday... On the ocean waters, SCA conditions, in the form of
elevated seas, continue. On the delaware bay, winds and seas should
stay below SCA criteria. However, gusts above 34 kt may be possible
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

Wednesday night and Thursday... An abrupt shift to northwesterly
winds is expected with a cold front Wednesday evening into late
Wednesday night. A period of gusts to 25 kt is possible just behind
the front, however confidence is low at this time. On the ocean
waters, seas should be diminishing through this time, but may stay
at or above 5 feet for much of the period. The SCA may need to be
extended further if confidence increases.

Friday through Sunday... Winds and seas should stay below sca
criteria.

Rip currents...

moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels now that we are approaching low tide on the
oceanfront and lower delaware bay are running higher than
guidance. Consequently, think we will have compounding issues
for the next high tide cycle later this morning. Thus, the
coastal flood advisory continues for areas along the ocean
front, the delaware bay, and the tidal delaware river. Back bays
may be especially vulnerable with this next high tide cycle as
there will be little chance for water to drain before then. At
this point though, no gauge is expected to be higher than minor
flooding ranges.

On the chesapeake bay, spotty minor flooding is occuring with
this morning's high tide, but water levels are expected to stay
below advisory thresholds. However, with increasing southerly
flow through the day, expect higher anomalies with the high tide
this evening. Therefore, have issued a coastal flood advisory
for northeastern maryland.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
paz070-071-106.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
njz012>014-016-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
njz015-017>019.

De... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
dez001>004.

Md... Coastal flood advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to midnight
edt tonight for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
tides coastal flooding... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 53 mi45 min 67°F 69°F1024.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 54 mi51 min 65°F 66°F1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport, PA8 mi52 minNE 64.00 miHeavy Rain0°F0°F%1026.7 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA12 mi36 minNE 62.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist58°F55°F90%1026.3 hPa
Quakertown Airport, PA18 mi32 minVar 33.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1026.1 hPa
Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA23 mi33 minN 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist59°F59°F100%1025.8 hPa

Wind History from XLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6NE9E4
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1 day agoN5NE5NE4N4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5N5N4NE6NE4NE7NE7NE6NE10
2 days agoN12
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N7N4NW3CalmNW4NW3N3CalmN3NE3N4N3CalmNE3CalmCalmN3N3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.