Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trexler, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:36PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:09 PM EST (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 9:33PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1151 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1151 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the north through tonight. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trexler, PA
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location: 40.6, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 121657
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1157 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area for today and tonight. A low
pressure system will move through the region on Thursday. An area of
low pressure will track through the deep south on Friday and into
the mid atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will then return
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Clouds continue to spread SE across SE pa and NRN nj. We have
added some to the sky grids for the afternoon. Temps and winds,
overall, well behaved. Highs will be a few degrees short of
normal, generally topping off in the lower 30s in the poconos to
the upper 30s north and west of the fall line, and in the lower
40s elsewhere.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure off the mid-atlantic coast continues to drift
offshore this evening. Meanwhile, weak surface low pressure with
a mid-level closed low and several strong shortwaves passing
through the great lakes will move into western ny pa after
midnight tonight, then this low passes north of the region
during the day Thursday. Some light snow will move into western
portions of the forecast area prior to daybreak Thursday, and
then snow moves into most of the region Thursday morning.

Going through Thursday afternoon, winds become east-southeast.

Onshore flow will allow for warmer air to filter into the
region, and snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to
north during the afternoon. Temps should remain cold enough in
the southern poconos to keep precip all snow.

For the most part, less than an inch of snow will fall along
and north of the i-95 corridor, but with colder temperatures in
the poconos, up to an inch or so of snow accumulation is
possible there.

Highs on Thursday warm into the low to mid 40s in SE nj and
delmarva, and in the upper 30s to low 40s in most of northern nj
and southeast pa. Highs in the southern poconos and far
northern nj will top off in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Thursday night... An upper low open trough will exit to the east of
the region Thursday night. Model soundings show moist low levels
(dry upper levels so no ice in the snow growth zone), especially
across the southern poconos and portions of the lehigh valley and
northwestern new jersey. Could see some patchy drizzle occur through
the evening and into early Friday and have added it to the forecast.

With temperatures dropping, some areas may see some patchy freezing
drizzle.

Friday through Sunday... The next system of the extended starts to
develop in the deep south. This system starts to track up into the
southeastern united states by Friday night. As the low makes its way
to the northeast, a secondary low forms along the carolina coast.

The gfs, canadian, and the ECMWF show this low developing out ahead
of the stronger low to its west. But that is where the similarities
start to end. The ECMWF takes the coastal low and makes it more
dominant, weakening the inland low. This solution would have more
rain impact us from Friday night through Saturday and leave Sunday
mostly dry as the inland low tracks to the east and offshore (with
the center of the low remaining to our south). The canadian keeps
the inland low suppressed to the south as the associated upper low
cuts off. The coastal low it moves quickly to the northeast, drying
us out by later Saturday, leaving Sunday dry. The GFS is by far the
wettest of these three models. It takes the coastal low up into our
area Friday night and Saturday and then takes the inland low on a
more northerly track into our area by later Saturday into Sunday.

With such diverse output from the this model run, confidence remains
fairly low. We continue to keep the highest chances for rain from
Friday night through Saturday and then only leave a slight chance
for some rain on Sunday. One good thing is all the guidance is
showing a warming trend so confidence is growing that we will see
mostly, if not all, rain with this event.

Monday through Tuesday... This period looks to be fairly quiet. The
gfs shows a cold front dropping down from the northwest later on
Monday while the ECMWF keeps any boundaries to the north of our
area. The GFS also shows a much deeper and stronger closed upper low
crossing the area while the ECMWF doesn't show much more than decent
trough rotating through. A few light showers may occur later Monday
but confidence is low as the models have widely differing opinions
on what to expect. For now, we will keep Monday dry and see if
things clear up a bit over the next few days. However, even if a
boundary moves through and is mostly dry, one thing the models are
consistent with this far out is that colder air will be arriving for
Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday and will
persist through the middle of the week.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR. Sct-bkn 4000 feet NE areas (including
kabe and kttn). NW winds 10 kt or less, becoming lgt vrb late
this afternoon.

Tonight...VFR initially. CIGS lowering to around 5000 feet by
daybreak Thursday. Some light snow possible at krdg kabe after
09z with MVFR or lower conditions. Lgt vrb winds.

Thursday... MVFR ifr conditions in light snow in the morning,
then snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to north
during the day. Precip may stay as snow in krdg kabe for most of
the day. Light east-southeast winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Light east
winds. Patchy drizzle freezing drizzle possible at kabe krdg.

Friday... MainlyVFR early with conditions deteriorating towards
midday. Rain will develop by late morning and overspread the
terminals through the afternoon. East to southeast winds less
than 10 knots.

Friday night and Saturday... MVFR ifr conditions expected.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain. East to northeast winds
around 5 to 10 knots, becoming more northerly later Saturday.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Northeast winds around
10 knots.

Marine
Sca flag taken down around noontime with winds and seas
continuing to diminish. Sub-sca conditions on tap tonight
through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected. Southeast winds will increase through Friday and may
approach advisory levels late.

Friday night and Sunday... Small craft conditions likely. Seas will
build reaching 5 feet on the southern waters by late Friday night.

Winds will increase and exceed 25 knots with gale force gusts
possible late Saturday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Mps po
short term... Mps
long term... Meola
aviation... Meola mps
marine... Meola mps po


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 53 mi57 min 44°F 39°F1021.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 54 mi93 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 38°F 36°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport, PA8 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1021.3 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA12 mi18 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast40°F21°F49%1021.1 hPa
Quakertown Airport, PA18 mi14 minVar 410.00 miOvercast37°F23°F56%1021 hPa
Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA23 mi15 minW 510.00 miFair42°F26°F53%1021.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3W5W7W3W5SW5W4SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4CalmCalmW4W3W3CalmW6W3
1 day agoN4N5N4N6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Wed -- 04:37 AM EST     5.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:33 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     5.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.63.34.355.14.43.42.41.50.80.40.41.73.755.75.95.44.43.32.31.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Philadelphia
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Wed -- 05:03 AM EST     5.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:42 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:15 PM EST     6.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.334.24.95.34.93.92.81.810.40.31.33.24.85.66.15.84.93.72.61.60.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.