Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:39 PM   Moonset 2:58 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1020 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft late this evening, then 1 ft or less. Mon - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1020 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the northeast coast and extending into the mid atlantic region will remain in place through Monday night, and then begin to slide offshore Tuesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night. Weak high pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday into Friday night. Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 200609 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 209 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the Northeast builds across the Mid- Atlantic through Tuesday before moving offshore on Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure continues sitting to our northeast, but the axis remains just to the northwest of most of the region. Thus, we continue to have an overall easterly flow, which is providing a fresh push of marine layer clouds into the region. There can be some patchy fog in spots, but not expecting widespread dense and no fog advisories are anticipated. This push is weaker than yesterday as the flow is even lighter while high pressure ridge axis slowly settles to our southeast over time, so think morning clouds should be more efficiently burned off today. The result should be a mostly sunny afternoon overall. A few models are suggesting that the ample May insolation combined with relatively moist atmosphere may spark a few light showers, most likely in the Poconos, so have put a few sprinkles in the forecast up there. Highs should be near to slightly warmer than yesterday, mostly 70s, cooler along the coast.

Tonight, with the high axis pushing further to our southeast, winds should become more southerly. However, they remain light, and some more late night low clouds and fog are possible. Lows mostly in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall, little changes were made to the short term period as the mid to upper level ridge essentially lies overhead through Tuesday night before beginning to breakdown and shift offshore on Wednesday. Down at the surface, broad high pressure over New England will expand southwest while becoming elongated into the southern Appalachian region. The high will sink south of the region on Tuesday and eventually settle offshore the Mid- Atlantic coast by Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will yield dry conditions throughout the period.

It is possible a round of fog may develop on Tuesday night, but confidence in this is less than Monday night so have left the mention out of this out of the forecast for now.

In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal with respect to low temps both nights with lows generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees. For high temperatures, it is likely that much of the area will range about 5-10 degrees above normal on Tuesday and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal on Wednesday. Meaning high temps will top out 80s both days as southerly flow ushers warmer air north. The exception will be for our coastal locales where a sea breeze circulation looks to develop each day. Given how cold the water temperatures are, there is potential for the sea breeze to develop early enough in the day, that the sea breeze reaches far enough inland that highs for most, if not all, of the coastal plain could be slightly lower than what is forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Summary: The main focus through the long term period is a cold front that is expected to cross through the region on Thursday bringing the chance for thunderstorms. High pressure looks to return on Friday with another disturbance approaching over Memorial Day Weekend.

Details:

Wednesday night...While run-to-run consistency remains poor, indications are for a pre-frontal trough to approach our northwestern areas on Wednesday night. This will result in a slight chance of some thunderstorms across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley for Wednesday night. PoPs are only around 20% so while the probability of occurrence is low, it cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue other than an increase in clouds.

Thursday...Deterministic global guidance between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC now all lie in close relation to one another with respect to the timing of the cold front. Based on current depiction, still thinking that this will be a late afternoon/early evening type of event with the cold front pushing offshore on Thursday night. While the location of the upper trough looks to remain over the Great Lakes, there should be enough surface instability aided by sufficient diurnal heating with temps rising into the 80s. This is supported quite well by both analog-based and machine learning probabilities.
Considering this notion, it warrants some monitoring of severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Friday through Sunday...The forecast for Friday and much of Memorial Day Weekend is highly variable and depends on how quickly the upper flow pattern evolves. The GFS remains the most aggressive with the upper level pattern with an upper ridge building overhead on Friday before another shortwave trough passes by on Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/CMC are much slower with the progression of upper level features, keeping the upper ridge in place through Sunday and shortwave trough delayed until early next week. Due to such drastic timing differences, continued to use a blend of global guidance which keeps a slight chance of showers (~20%) through the holiday weekend. However, the weekend certainly does not look to be a washout by any means, and there will likely be a period of dry weather...just exactly when that will be is yet to be seen.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today...Variable conditions early this morning with intervals of IFR cigs and vsby, possibly LIFR at times, with cigs possibly down below 500 ft and vsby down below 1/2 mile not out of the question. Best odds of these are the outer terminals, with reduced chances at KPHL. Conditions should improve to VFR across the board by 14UTC. Winds light northeasterly becoming southeasterly. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start but IFR cigs/vsby possible late as low clouds/fog may redevelop. Winds light southerly. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mostly VFR expected. Some visibility restrictions are possible on Tuesday night due to mist/fog.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable especially on Thursday and Thursday night. A slight chance of a thunderstorm on Wednesday night with scattered thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night.

Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

MARINE
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters through tonight. Expect seas generally around 3 to 4 feet with gusts up to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...No marine headlines are expected.
Fair weather expected through Wednesday night with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night. Fair weather is expected to return on Friday.

Rip Currents...

A prolonged period of NE to E winds at 10 to 15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph at night will continue through today. Along with 3 to 4 ft seas, this will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today at New Jersey and Delaware beaches. The rip current risk may be low for most of the day for southern New Jersey beaches.

By Tuesday, the winds will be veering to more of a southerly direction at 10 to 15 mph which will reduce the onshore component at most beaches. However we'll also be heading closer to the Full Moon on the 23rd so for this reason expect that most of our beaches will continue to see a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Market Street Bridge
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Mon -- 12:00 AM EDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:57 AM EDT     Moonset
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Mon -- 12:37 AM EDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
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