Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Samak, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:44PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 11:51 PM MDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:28PMMoonset 8:12AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samak, UT
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location: 40.62, -111     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 230234
afdslc
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
834 pm mdt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
The unsettled weather pattern with a trough over the western
united states will continue through Friday. There will be a
hiatus Saturday into Sunday with a weak ridge moving in between
systems but another trough returns early next week.

Discussion
Guidance has been consistent indicating a potential canyon downslope
wind event mainly north of salt lake city, and more localized
near canyons of salt lake and utah valleys. The ingredients
include a tightening easterly pressure gradient as a high builds
southward east of the rockies, and moderately strong cold
advection at 700mb with winds increasing toward 50kts.

Currently have a wind advisory in effect for the northern wasatch
front and cache valley, for gusts as high as 55 mph. 40 mph winds
expected at canyon mouths of salt lake and utah valleys. Current
and past observations have been supportive of an escalating wind
event, with fairly widespread 30-47 mph gusts recorded north and
east of salt lake city, both at crest and valley levels.

High resolution guidance, whether looking at the surface, or just
above the surface, have indicated that warning level wind speeds
are possible. High winds would be more likely if there was a
significant critical layer near ridgetop level. Kslc raob, local
aircraft observations, and most model bufkit forecast soundings
all indicate a weak critical layer somewhere between 650-750mb,
but its fairly subtle in some of these data. With that in mind,
taking a wait and see approach. Should winds ramp up this evening,
a quick upgrade may be required.

No matter the peak gust speed, something to be concerned about
would be downed trees due to leafing out and saturated soils. This
may lead to power outages, so have a plan to deal with one should
it occur.

The event will come to a close midday tomorrow.

Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder continue overnight, with
meager instability yet synoptic forcing as a vorticity lobe
pivots north-northwest around a circulation center over nevada.

Previous discussion
Easterly flow from southwest wyoming has spread into the cache
valley and portions of the northern wasatch this afternoon. With
the surface gradient becoming more favorable and the mid level
easterly winds at 700 mb increasing to 35-40 kts the pattern will
result in gusty downslope canyon winds along the northern wasatch
front and the cache valley tonight into Thursday morning.

Consequently the wind advisory remains in effect with potential
wind gusts over 50 mph.

Due to drier air being imported from the east the threat of
showers across northern utah, specifically the wasatch front from
slc northward will diminish early this evening. Farther south, the
latest trough developing over california will begin to influence
the weather over southwest and south central utah this evening
with an increase of showers and thunderstorms as a lobe of
vorticity advection swings northward.

A couple of 700mb circulations are expected to spin up overnight
with one near saint george and another near dugway by 12z
Thursday. These circulations will increase the shower activity
during the morning time frame. As the northern circulation becomes
dominant by afternoon the showers will decrease over southwest
utah but become more numerous over central and northern utah as
the instability due to the cold air aloft increases. In the path
of the main circulation and to the east another 0.20 to 0.50 of
an inch of rain is expected in the valleys with 0.25 to 0.75 in
the mountains through Thursday. Several more inches of snow above
7500-8000 ft can be expected as well.

The mid level circulation lifts northeast away from utah and sw
wyoming Thursday night into Friday. However, an elongated 500mb
trough remains in place from southeast idaho into southern
california through Friday which will keep a chance of showers
across central and northern utah, with likely showers to continue
in the northern and central mountains.

This trough fades away while a new one forms over california by
Saturday. This will result in a temporary break in the widespread
showers, although due to the incumbent moist air mass showers will
remain possible, especially over the northern mountains.

Temperatures will remain below normal through this period,
although temperatures could come within 5 degrees of normal by
Saturday which may feel like its above normal compared to recent
days.

The upper low drifting slowly south through the pacific northwest
will settle into central southern california and western great
basin Sunday Sunday night. This general location of this upper low
is similar to recent storms, and will likely result in another
round of widespread precip early in the week.

A warm and mostly dry southerly flow ahead of the main low should
make Sunday the warmest of the days in the long term forecast
period. Good diurnal heating working with limited moisture should
spawn mostly terrain-based convective cloud cover with some shower
and thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon.

The best chance at organized precip will likely hold off until the
first vorticity lobe rotates out ahead of the main low into
southwest utah late Sunday afternoon or evening. Widespread
convective precip will expand across the entire forecast area in
response to the approach of the upper low into southern western utah
by early Monday. This precip will turn more stratiform late Monday
through early Tuesday as the low moves east across the state. Near
700mb temps will be sufficiently cold to drive the snow level of
accumulating snow down to between 7000'-8000' during this timeframe.

The trailing cool and moist cyclonic north-northwest will maintain
precip Tuesday through early Tuesday evening. Snow levels will begin
to slowly climb as precip intensities decrease and temps aloft begin
to warm. Continued warming and gradual drying should limit any
precip to mostly terrain-tied showers for Wednesday.

Aviation
Through 18z Thursday, a canyon downslope wind event will affect
portions of northern utah, particularly north and east of the
kslc terminal where low level wind shear may be present. The winds
at kslc will be variable in direction due to the combination of
eddies off the nearby terrain and outflow from scattered showers.

Any shower may bring a reduction in ceiling and visibility, with
the most likely time period being through 04z, then again closer
to 12z.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... Wind advisory until 1 pm mdt Thursday for utz001-002.

Wy... None.

Public... 10 struthwolf conger
aviation... 10
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 36U (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE6E3N5E3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S11
G18
SW10
G15
SW13
G18
SW16
G24
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G22
SW13S4
1 day agoSW6CalmE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4W4SW10SW9SW9
2 days agoE5E4SE5E4NE8E8CalmN9N9
G17
E5E4N9
G14
N14N7E5N9N13N10
G18
N11
G15
NW4
G16
N5
G15
N7N8SW11
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Salt Lake City, UT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.