Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Samak, UT
May 7, 2024 12:50 PM MDT (18:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 4:45 AM Moonset 7:26 PM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 071020 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 420 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Northern and central Utah will remain cold and unsettled through Wednesday while southern Utah stays dry and warmer. A warming and drying trend will commence late Wednesday with isolated showers and storms remaining possible across central and southern Utah through the weekend.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Current radar shows valley rain and mountain snow ongoing across northern Utah and the central Utah mountains. This precipitation will continue through the morning as a shortwave trough moves through the region. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air with H7 temperatures dropping to ~-10C by the afternoon. Precipitation will gradually diminish throughout the day as it turns into a more showery regime with isolated thunder possible (~30% chance). Given steep lapse rates and the cold air aloft these showers will be capable of dragging snow levels down to valley floors as well as containing graupel and locally gusty winds under any heavier cores that become established. In addition to the showers, post-frontal northwesterly flow will be gusty throughout the day for most regions, but gusts should remain below advisory criteria. Given the continued snow across the northern mountains, winter storm warnings continue through 06Z Wednesday for 4-8 inches of additional snow, with higher amounts up to 12 inches possible in the Cottonwoods and high Uintas.
A cold light northwest flow will remain established through Wednesday morning that could result in lake effect snow south and east of the GSL. This is noted in all of the hi-res models, but the extent and duration of this lake band is fairly small so limited impacts are anticipated across valley locations.
Additionally, sub-freezing temperatures are expected across agriculture zones of Tooele, Box Elder, and Utah counties along with portions of The Swell. As a result, freeze warnings have been issued for these areas through Wednesday morning.
A following shortwave arrives on Wednesday afternoon which will bring a boost in moisture and more widespread showery precipitation across northern Utah with little to no additional snow accumulations across the mountains. This diurnal precipitation will subside during the evening with cold temperatures remaining, but most valley locations will have slightly warmer temperatures Thursday morning so the freeze threat is lower compared to Wednesday morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern at the beginning of the long term period, temporarily building a large scale blocking pattern across the western CONUS. A broad upper ridge will become established across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region beginning Thursday and persisting through much of the weekend, while a cutoff low develops and parks across the Great Basin/Colorado Plateau region. This setup looks to persist through at least Saturday, before model guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly this low exits the region.
Initially, easterly flow along the northern periphery of the developing upper low will spread across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming by early Thursday morning, and persist through at least Friday, resulting in a favorable setup for enhanced easterlies along the northern Wasatch Front and eastern Cache Valley. Uncertainty centers around the magnitude of the cold advection, as well as the strength of the easterly flow aloft. At this point it's not looking like a significant downslope event, but rather gusts predominantly in the 40-55 mph range.
With the upper low and associated cold pool aloft residing across the region, diurnal convection can be expected through at least Saturday, and potentially beyond depending on how quickly the upper low exits the region. 00Z guidance has trended slower with respect to eventually lifting this low out of the region, which would maintain the threat for daily convection into early next week. The current forecast trends temperatures warmer heading into the weekend and early next week as the airmass modifies.
AVIATION
KSLC...Periods of rain will occasional MVFR CIGS through the morning hours, with a 20% chance of brief IFR CIGS through 18Z. Scattered showers will linger around the terminal into the afternoon hours as predominant VFR conditions take hold. Winds throughout the day will remain northwesterly, but may become briefly erratic near passing showers.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Areas of precipitation with snow levels around 4500 feet will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the morning hours. Periods of MVFR CIGS are expected within these areas of precipitation, with IFR to LIFR within periods of snow above 4500 feet. Conditions across southern Utah will remain predominantly VFR. Winds across the region will remain predominantly northwesterly throughout the day today, but may become erratic near passing showers.
FIRE WEATHER
A trough will move through the region Tuesday bringing reinforcing cold air to central and northern Utah along with more valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will be down to valley floors, at times, with 6-12" of accumulating snow across the high terrain. Northwest winds will be gusty areawide on Tuesday behind a cold front. Showers will linger through Wednesday morning across the north before drier and warmer conditions develop.
This trough shifts east by Thursday, but an area of low pressure will be left in its wake that will linger across southern Utah resulting in isolated afternoon showers through the weekend. But the primary result of this low will be an increase in cloud coverage and higher relative humidity.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for UTZ102-103-106-121.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ110>112.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 420 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Northern and central Utah will remain cold and unsettled through Wednesday while southern Utah stays dry and warmer. A warming and drying trend will commence late Wednesday with isolated showers and storms remaining possible across central and southern Utah through the weekend.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Current radar shows valley rain and mountain snow ongoing across northern Utah and the central Utah mountains. This precipitation will continue through the morning as a shortwave trough moves through the region. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air with H7 temperatures dropping to ~-10C by the afternoon. Precipitation will gradually diminish throughout the day as it turns into a more showery regime with isolated thunder possible (~30% chance). Given steep lapse rates and the cold air aloft these showers will be capable of dragging snow levels down to valley floors as well as containing graupel and locally gusty winds under any heavier cores that become established. In addition to the showers, post-frontal northwesterly flow will be gusty throughout the day for most regions, but gusts should remain below advisory criteria. Given the continued snow across the northern mountains, winter storm warnings continue through 06Z Wednesday for 4-8 inches of additional snow, with higher amounts up to 12 inches possible in the Cottonwoods and high Uintas.
A cold light northwest flow will remain established through Wednesday morning that could result in lake effect snow south and east of the GSL. This is noted in all of the hi-res models, but the extent and duration of this lake band is fairly small so limited impacts are anticipated across valley locations.
Additionally, sub-freezing temperatures are expected across agriculture zones of Tooele, Box Elder, and Utah counties along with portions of The Swell. As a result, freeze warnings have been issued for these areas through Wednesday morning.
A following shortwave arrives on Wednesday afternoon which will bring a boost in moisture and more widespread showery precipitation across northern Utah with little to no additional snow accumulations across the mountains. This diurnal precipitation will subside during the evening with cold temperatures remaining, but most valley locations will have slightly warmer temperatures Thursday morning so the freeze threat is lower compared to Wednesday morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern at the beginning of the long term period, temporarily building a large scale blocking pattern across the western CONUS. A broad upper ridge will become established across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region beginning Thursday and persisting through much of the weekend, while a cutoff low develops and parks across the Great Basin/Colorado Plateau region. This setup looks to persist through at least Saturday, before model guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly this low exits the region.
Initially, easterly flow along the northern periphery of the developing upper low will spread across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming by early Thursday morning, and persist through at least Friday, resulting in a favorable setup for enhanced easterlies along the northern Wasatch Front and eastern Cache Valley. Uncertainty centers around the magnitude of the cold advection, as well as the strength of the easterly flow aloft. At this point it's not looking like a significant downslope event, but rather gusts predominantly in the 40-55 mph range.
With the upper low and associated cold pool aloft residing across the region, diurnal convection can be expected through at least Saturday, and potentially beyond depending on how quickly the upper low exits the region. 00Z guidance has trended slower with respect to eventually lifting this low out of the region, which would maintain the threat for daily convection into early next week. The current forecast trends temperatures warmer heading into the weekend and early next week as the airmass modifies.
AVIATION
KSLC...Periods of rain will occasional MVFR CIGS through the morning hours, with a 20% chance of brief IFR CIGS through 18Z. Scattered showers will linger around the terminal into the afternoon hours as predominant VFR conditions take hold. Winds throughout the day will remain northwesterly, but may become briefly erratic near passing showers.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Areas of precipitation with snow levels around 4500 feet will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the morning hours. Periods of MVFR CIGS are expected within these areas of precipitation, with IFR to LIFR within periods of snow above 4500 feet. Conditions across southern Utah will remain predominantly VFR. Winds across the region will remain predominantly northwesterly throughout the day today, but may become erratic near passing showers.
FIRE WEATHER
A trough will move through the region Tuesday bringing reinforcing cold air to central and northern Utah along with more valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will be down to valley floors, at times, with 6-12" of accumulating snow across the high terrain. Northwest winds will be gusty areawide on Tuesday behind a cold front. Showers will linger through Wednesday morning across the north before drier and warmer conditions develop.
This trough shifts east by Thursday, but an area of low pressure will be left in its wake that will linger across southern Utah resulting in isolated afternoon showers through the weekend. But the primary result of this low will be an increase in cloud coverage and higher relative humidity.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for UTZ102-103-106-121.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ110>112.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Salt Lake City, UT,
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