Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, NJ
May 15, 2024 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM Moonset 2:11 AM |
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 946 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Thursday afternoon - .
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Rain.
Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 946 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today into tonight and departs to the southeast Thursday into Thursday night. Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 151401 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1001 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today into tonight and departs to the southeast Thursday into Thursday night.
Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Widespread light rain can be seen across the area on current radar imagery. Expect this activity to continue through the day, with a lull possible early this afternoon, mainly for northern and eastern locations.
Low pressure will continue to slowly approach from the south and is currently just off the Delmarva coast.
Numerical weather prediction models convey that forcing for lift increases as shown by mid level positive vorticity advection later this afternoon. Also indicated is isentropic lift, allowing for the rain to be overspreading and expanding throughout the area this afternoon. The models also indicate a continuously moist environment with layer precipitable water reaching values mainly between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.
Temperatures stay in the 60s today with the rain which for most locations will be periodic or intermittent.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low gets closest to Long Island tonight and then slowly makes its way out into the Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will briefly build in from the Canadian Maritimes for Friday and Friday night.
Models overall have shifted farther north with the low and the speed of the low appears to be lower compared to previous forecasts also. This has resulted in higher POPs for tonight and Thursday with rain likely for much of the two time periods.
Also with the closer proximity of the low, low level omega is forecast to increase especially across eastern sections of the forecast region. In addition, the pressure gradient will become tight, making for gusty winds from the NE tonight into Thursday.
Models have also depicted Showalter Indices getting near zero across mainly the southern coastal areas for Thursday, so have a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The rain tonight into Thursday is expected to be steady and light to moderate at times. Some brief locally heavy rain will be possible as the layer precipitable waters will be very similar to the previous day.
Chances for rain remain Thursday night and eventually diminish late Thursday night as low pressure moves farther away. Drier air will eventually come into the area late Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Friday night.
Temperatures still mainly in the 60s for highs Thursday with a rebound of high temperatures on Friday back to near to slightly above normal values, mostly upper 60s to mid 70s with more sun and decreasing NE flow compared to the previous day.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The NBM was generally used for the extended period with no major changes in the forecast. There still remains a good deal of uncertainty with the handling of the next surface low pressure system in the vicinity of the area over the weekend and into early next week. The previous discussion follows:
Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The latest ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday. Weak high pressure may move into the area on Monday.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.
Highs during the period will be closer to normal on Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain.
This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast slowly tracks towards the area through tonight.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate this morning with mainly IFR for most terminals, but MVFR to VFR could linger out east towards KGON. There is a chance ceilings briefly improve late morning/early afternoon to MVFR before going back down to IFR late afternoon and evening. IFR prevails tonight and potentially continues into Thursday morning. Confidence in the timing of category changes due to cigs is low.
Light rain continues for much of the day. Rain continues tonight as the low approaches.
ESE-E winds to start will slowly become E-NE this afternoon. NE flow prevails tonight. Wind speeds increase this morning, becoming 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 18-25 kt are possible, especially near the coast. Gusts become frequent tonight into Thursday morning near the coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for changes in flight categories. Some fluctuations between IFR and MVFR are probable this morning into early afternoon.
Wind gusts may be occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: IFR to MVFR early, possibly improving to VFR late in the day. A chance of showers, especially early. NE winds G20kt.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.
Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions trend from below SCA much of today to SCA level wind gusts late this afternoon along the ocean mostly. Then all waters will have SCA levels gusts tonight through much of Thursday. Some SCA gusts could linger into Thursday night.
Below SCA gusts expected Friday into Friday night.
Seas on the ocean start out below SCA today and then get into SCA range tonight and likely remain at SCA levels thereafter through Friday night. SCA level seas also forecast for extreme Eastern LI Sound (East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River)
tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, non-ocean waters look to remain below SCA levels during the short term that goes through Friday night.
Lingering wave heights near 5 feet on the ocean will result in SCA conditions continuing on Saturday. The waters then look to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday but exact placement in a low pressure system to the south may change the forecast.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next week.
Rainfall in the today through Thursday time frame with amounts on average between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts near 1.5 inches with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1001 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today into tonight and departs to the southeast Thursday into Thursday night.
Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Widespread light rain can be seen across the area on current radar imagery. Expect this activity to continue through the day, with a lull possible early this afternoon, mainly for northern and eastern locations.
Low pressure will continue to slowly approach from the south and is currently just off the Delmarva coast.
Numerical weather prediction models convey that forcing for lift increases as shown by mid level positive vorticity advection later this afternoon. Also indicated is isentropic lift, allowing for the rain to be overspreading and expanding throughout the area this afternoon. The models also indicate a continuously moist environment with layer precipitable water reaching values mainly between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.
Temperatures stay in the 60s today with the rain which for most locations will be periodic or intermittent.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low gets closest to Long Island tonight and then slowly makes its way out into the Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will briefly build in from the Canadian Maritimes for Friday and Friday night.
Models overall have shifted farther north with the low and the speed of the low appears to be lower compared to previous forecasts also. This has resulted in higher POPs for tonight and Thursday with rain likely for much of the two time periods.
Also with the closer proximity of the low, low level omega is forecast to increase especially across eastern sections of the forecast region. In addition, the pressure gradient will become tight, making for gusty winds from the NE tonight into Thursday.
Models have also depicted Showalter Indices getting near zero across mainly the southern coastal areas for Thursday, so have a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The rain tonight into Thursday is expected to be steady and light to moderate at times. Some brief locally heavy rain will be possible as the layer precipitable waters will be very similar to the previous day.
Chances for rain remain Thursday night and eventually diminish late Thursday night as low pressure moves farther away. Drier air will eventually come into the area late Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Friday night.
Temperatures still mainly in the 60s for highs Thursday with a rebound of high temperatures on Friday back to near to slightly above normal values, mostly upper 60s to mid 70s with more sun and decreasing NE flow compared to the previous day.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The NBM was generally used for the extended period with no major changes in the forecast. There still remains a good deal of uncertainty with the handling of the next surface low pressure system in the vicinity of the area over the weekend and into early next week. The previous discussion follows:
Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The latest ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday. Weak high pressure may move into the area on Monday.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.
Highs during the period will be closer to normal on Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain.
This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast slowly tracks towards the area through tonight.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate this morning with mainly IFR for most terminals, but MVFR to VFR could linger out east towards KGON. There is a chance ceilings briefly improve late morning/early afternoon to MVFR before going back down to IFR late afternoon and evening. IFR prevails tonight and potentially continues into Thursday morning. Confidence in the timing of category changes due to cigs is low.
Light rain continues for much of the day. Rain continues tonight as the low approaches.
ESE-E winds to start will slowly become E-NE this afternoon. NE flow prevails tonight. Wind speeds increase this morning, becoming 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 18-25 kt are possible, especially near the coast. Gusts become frequent tonight into Thursday morning near the coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for changes in flight categories. Some fluctuations between IFR and MVFR are probable this morning into early afternoon.
Wind gusts may be occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: IFR to MVFR early, possibly improving to VFR late in the day. A chance of showers, especially early. NE winds G20kt.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.
Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions trend from below SCA much of today to SCA level wind gusts late this afternoon along the ocean mostly. Then all waters will have SCA levels gusts tonight through much of Thursday. Some SCA gusts could linger into Thursday night.
Below SCA gusts expected Friday into Friday night.
Seas on the ocean start out below SCA today and then get into SCA range tonight and likely remain at SCA levels thereafter through Friday night. SCA level seas also forecast for extreme Eastern LI Sound (East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River)
tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, non-ocean waters look to remain below SCA levels during the short term that goes through Friday night.
Lingering wave heights near 5 feet on the ocean will result in SCA conditions continuing on Saturday. The waters then look to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday but exact placement in a low pressure system to the south may change the forecast.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next week.
Rainfall in the today through Thursday time frame with amounts on average between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts near 1.5 inches with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MHRN6 | 1 mi | 46 min | E 6G | |||||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 6 mi | 46 min | E 8G | 60°F | 29.86 | |||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 10 mi | 46 min | 60°F | 58°F | 29.81 | |||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 15 mi | 46 min | E 7G | 58°F | 60°F | 29.88 | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 25 mi | 46 min | ENE 1.9G | 60°F | 29.88 | |||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 29 mi | 34 min | ENE 12 | 57°F | 29.85 | 56°F | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 32 mi | 34 min | ESE 7.8G | 57°F | 56°F | 29.86 | ||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 46 mi | 46 min | E 4.1G | 61°F | 61°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ | 3 sm | 73 min | E 06 | 6 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.86 |
| KLDJ LINDEN,NJ | 4 sm | 29 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | Drizzle | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.86 |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 10 sm | 68 min | NE 05 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.88 |
| KMMU MORRISTOWN MUNI,NJ | 16 sm | 65 min | SSW 03 | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Rain Mist | 63°F | 29.87 | ||
| KTEB TETERBORO,NJ | 16 sm | 73 min | ENE 05 | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.86 |
| KCDW ESSEX COUNTY,NJ | 17 sm | 71 min | E 07 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 29.87 |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 19 sm | 33 min | NE 08 | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.86 |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 21 sm | 31 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.87 |
Port Ivory
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT 4.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:28 AM EDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:21 PM EDT 4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT 1.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT 4.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:28 AM EDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:21 PM EDT 4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT 1.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Ivory, Howland Hook, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.7 |
| 1 am |
| 4.4 |
| 2 am |
| 4.9 |
| 3 am |
| 4.9 |
| 4 am |
| 4.4 |
| 5 am |
| 3.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.7 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 4 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:00 AM EDT -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT 1.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:20 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 PM EDT -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:42 PM EDT 1.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:19 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:00 AM EDT -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT 1.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:20 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 PM EDT -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:42 PM EDT 1.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -1.1 |
| 5 am |
| -1.3 |
| 6 am |
| -1.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.7 |
| 8 am |
| -0.4 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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