Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saltaire, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:43 PM EST (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1141 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1141 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure passes to the north of the waters today. High pressure builds over the waters tonight and Sunday. Then, a series of weak low pressure and frontal systems will pass through the area through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saltaire, NY
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location: 40.65, -73.19     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 161822
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
122 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure passes to the north today bringing a cold
front south of the region. High pressure builds in for tonight
and Sunday. Then a series of lows will pass through the area
through mid week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Increasing clouds are expected through the remainder of the day
as the next vorticity maximum passes across new england and a
weak cold front approach from the nw. The cold front will pass
through from north to south into the evening.

Some snow showers are possible this afternoon across the
interior. Drier low levels across the region should prevent any
widespread activity, but some of these snow showers could
translate towards to the coast by early this evening as the cold
front moves through. Do not anticipate any accumulation other
than possible a dusting if a snow shower does occur.

Breezy westerly winds are forecast today with gusts 20-25 mph at
times. High temperatures will range from the lower and middle
30s inland to the upper 30s near the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
A few flurries may be lingering into the early evening hours if
the cold front is slower to push through. At this time will keep
the evening dry. Height rise tonight through Sunday as the flow
becomes more zonal. A dampening shortwave will be moving into
the weak upper ridge late Sunday and Sunday night, and pass
through Sunday night.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
A weakening shortwave passes through Sunday night into Monday.

Have lowered the probabilities slightly as the shortwave is
weakening and flat, with little moisture. Warmer air will be
pushing into the region, and as the warm air lifts north of the
cold surface air a period of freezing rain, some ice pellets and
snow will be possible. Too early for specific details on this
light precip event.

Thereafter, models in fairly good agreement with the broad bu
shallow northern stream trough approaching the region on
Tuesday and sliding through during the midweek. At the surface,
the primary low pressure system rides through quebec ontario
with trailing cold front approaching the region Tuesday night.

Overall, appears to be mainly a light QPF event for the Monday
night into Tuesday evening period, due to limited interaction
between northern and southern stream. Thermal profile suggests
precip would be mainly liquid, but could be dealing with
freezing rain across interior Monday night as cold air
typically has a tough time scouring our in this setup.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold
front for Wed thu.

Upper flow flattens and even becomes a bit ridged for Thursday
ahead of the next northern stream trough digging into the upper
plains, which should allow for a moderation in temps ahead of
next potential frontal system.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
A cold frontal passage occurs this evening.

Ceilings around 3500 ft can generally be expected through the
taf period for the city terminals, coastal connecticut and long
island. To the north however, there is a higher probability for
ceilings to settle around 3000 ft for this afternoon and
evening. MVFR has therefore been forecast for those areas.

There is a chance for snow showers through approximately 00z.

Vcsh have been included in the tafs, with coverage expected to
be mainly isolated at this time.

Winds in the 250-270 true range will veer to the northwest
behind the cold front tonight. The winds will continue to veer
to the north on Sunday.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Rest of Sunday Ifr possible overnight with snow or a light
wintry mix possible. Variable wind direction with speeds below
10 kt.

Monday Light rain possible along the coast in the morning,
with a light wintry mix possible elsewhere. BecomingVFR.

Westerly flow developing.

Tuesday Areas of MVFR possible with southwest flow.

Wednesday Vfr with northwest flow 20-25 kt.

Thursday Vfr with light winds becoming southerly.

Marine
Gusty small craft winds are likely across all the forecast
waters today into early this evening as a rather tight pressure
gradient moves through the waters as low pressure moves into the
atlantic and high pressure builds to the west. Gusty winds may
linger into this evening on the ocean waters. Ocean seas may
remain around small craft levels into the first part of tonight.

So, the advisory remains into this evening on the ocean.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be late Tuesday Tue eve
ahead of approaching cold front, but higher likelihood of
widespread SCA Tuesday night through Wednesday night with tight
pressure gradient and strong CAA in wake of cold front. Gales
are possible during this time frame.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... 24 met
near term... Ds met
short term... Met
long term... Nv
aviation... 12
marine... 24 met
hydrology... 24 met
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 28 mi54 min W 23 G 29 39°F 51°F7 ft1016 hPa (-2.2)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi44 min W 15 G 23 36°F 42°F1016.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi54 min W 18 G 23 38°F 51°F3 ft1015.8 hPa (-2.3)26°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi44 min SW 18 G 23 39°F 24°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi44 min W 2.9 G 8.9 35°F 43°F1014.5 hPa (-2.5)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi44 min 37°F 45°F1016.4 hPa (-2.8)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi44 min WSW 13 G 18 37°F 36°F1016.8 hPa (-2.7)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi44 min W 11 G 15 35°F 41°F1014.7 hPa (-2.8)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi44 min WSW 19 G 24 37°F 1016.3 hPa (-3.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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N24
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi1.8 hrsWSW 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F21°F57%1016.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi51 minW 17 G 2410.00 miFair36°F21°F55%1015.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi1.8 hrsW 13 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F21°F57%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE3N7CalmW4W4NW6W6W5W8W6W7W5W5W6W5W4SW9W10W13W12W16
G20
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1 day agoNW9NW10NW11W15NW12NW13W9NW14NW14NW10
G20
NW10W5NW7SW5W3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW22
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W16
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W12W8W9W11W9W7W8W14CalmNE4NE5NE7N5N5N6N8N11N10NW9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for West Fire Island, Long Island, New York
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West Fire Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:24 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EST     0.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:51 PM EST     0.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.1-000.10.30.40.60.70.70.60.40.30.20-000.10.30.40.50.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Democrat Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:13 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.411.72.42.82.92.621.40.80.2-0.10.10.61.21.82.22.42.21.81.20.70.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.