Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saltaire, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:07PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:19 AM EDT (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 6:27PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 508 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ300 508 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pres today will give way to a cold frontal passage late tonight into Fri morning. The high will build back in on Sat, then slide offshore Sun and Mon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saltaire, NY
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location: 40.65, -73.19     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190910
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
510 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal passage will occur tonight. High pressure will
dominate from Friday night through Monday. A slow moving frontal
system will then move across during the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
The patchy fog has been expanded to most of the area outside of
the city. Otherwise, the forecast is on track this morning.

A upper level system over northern ontario will track across
hudson bay today and into northern quebec tonight. This will
drag a boundary through the forecast area late tonight. It is
difficult to call it a cold front because temperatures behind it
on Friday will be virtually the same, but the temperature
structure aloft does indicate that it is indeed a cold front.

Regardless, there is very little moisture to work with so the
frontal passage will be dry.

Winds ahead of the front today will ramp up out of the
southwest. A solid breeze can be expected along the south coasts
by late afternoon, particularly across eastern long island.

Temperatures will remain way above normal again with most spots
at least 70 for highs. Slightly milder temperatures are likely
tonight as winds likely stay up, at least a little, in most
areas. A blend of guidance was used.

Short term Friday
Northwest winds and continued dry. 850 flow in the 35-40kt
range, and with subsidence and a dry airmass, there is a good
chance mixing over preforms the model data. Because of this,
winds were bumped up significantly from the model blend. The
deep mixing flow is also the reason temperatures will be near 70
or above once again. Temperatures were raised above guidance,
but if mixing to 850 is realized, 80 degrees highs will be
realized.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Ridging at the sfc and aloft will dominate into Monday ahead of an
upper trough in the western states. As this trough reaches the
plains states, its southern extension will likely cut off over the
south and tap into gulf moisture before phasing with another trough
digging into the northern plains. Wx should be dry and unseasonably
warm until at least Monday, with high temps in the 70s, and possibly
nearing 80 in NE nj on sat.

Nwp guidance continues to trend toward a later timing of the
approaching frontal system for mid next week. There could be some
sct showers and or patchy of light rain drizzle via low level
warm moisture advection well ahead of the approaching front as early
as Mon night-tue. More significant rainfall with the front now looks
to hold off until at least Tue night and possibly until wed, and the
slow moving front, with attendant warm moist conveyor belt, low
level jet, and multiple tropical connections, one out of the gulf of
mexico and another developing out of the subtropical western
atlantic, could become a heavy rain producer during this time.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
A weak cold front approaches from the northwest today, then
begins to cross the area into tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period. Exception is a brief period of ifr
ceilings at kgon early this morning.

Winds become SW at less than 10kt at all terminals by mid
morning. By early afternoon winds back to the ssw and increase
to around 10kt with gusts up to around 20kt at all but kisp,
where infrequent gusts up to around 20kt are possible. Wind
gusts should abate during the evening, with winds veering to the
sw-wsw.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 6 mi49 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 61°F 61°F58°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 28 mi89 min WSW 12 G 14 64°F 64°F3 ft1024.9 hPa (-0.6)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi90 min SW 9.7 G 12 62°F 51°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi49 min S 5.1 G 6 58°F 65°F1025 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi49 min S 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 51°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi89 min WSW 12 G 14 62°F 65°F3 ft1024.1 hPa (-0.7)50°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi49 min N 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 65°F1023.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi49 min 58°F 66°F1025 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 44 mi64 min WSW 9.7 G 12 64°F 1 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi49 min WSW 8 G 11 58°F 63°F1025.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi49 min Calm G 0 55°F 66°F1024.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi49 min W 6 G 8 57°F 1025 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE15
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N11
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair50°F48°F93%1024.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair49°F46°F93%1024.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi23 minN 08.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3W4W5W6W4NW4CalmCalm3S8S9SW6SW8SW4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3Calm
1 day agoN5N4N6N7N11N8N10NE8NE6NW7CalmE3SW5SW7S5SW7SW5CalmCalmCalmW5W4W8W5
2 days agoNW15
G22
NW8W12
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NW9NW12
G19
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N9N15NW11N13
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NW12N18NW14
G20
N13N11N8N11
G20
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N10N15
G21
N9N10N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for West Fire Island, Long Island, New York
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West Fire Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:23 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.20.1-0-00.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.50.30.10-00.10.20.40.60.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Democrat Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.1-0.10.41.122.73.23.22.82.11.40.70.1-0.10.20.81.62.32.832.62.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.