Tuesday, May30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday May 30, 2017 5:17 AM EDT (09:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 449 Am Edt Tue May 30 2017
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy drizzle early this morning. Slight chance of showers late this morning and this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 449 Am Edt Tue May 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will remains over the area today. A warm front will pass to the north tonight into Wednesday morning as the high weakens. A cold front will then approach Wednesday afternoon and move through Wednesday night...followed by high pressure for Thursday and Thursday night. Another cold front will move through late Friday night into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth, NJ
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location: 40.65, -74.18     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 300841
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
441 am edt Tue may 30 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will remains over the area today. A warm
front will approach tonight, then lift through Wednesday
morning as the high weakens. A cold front will then approach
Wednesday afternoon, then move through late Wednesday afternoon
and night, followed by high pressure for Thursday and Thursday
night. Another cold front will move through late Friday night
into Saturday morning, and then remain just south through early
next week as disturbances move along it.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak subsidence approaching from the south as observed on
experimental low level WV satellite imagery should continue to
help maintain a low level inversion. Given the continued
onshore flow trapping moisture beneath the inversion, low clouds
and patchy drizzle will likely persist this morning. With an
increase in deep layer moisture and weak shortwave disturbances
passing across in deep layer SW flow aloft, there should be a
chance of showers today mainly NW of nyc. NAM tt and showalter
indices alone suggest a potential for elevated thunder, but
have not mentioned since lift is weak.

Temps should be slightly warmer than those of yesterday, with
fairly uniform lower 60s most places, and upper 50s across the
forks of long island.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Isentropic lift with the approaching warm front and perhaps a
stronger shortwave passing through should have the best shot at
producing numerous showers and isolated thunder in areas well
nw of nyc this evening. Otherwise, skies should remain cloudy
with patchy fog developing in most places, and low temps again
in the 50s.

The warm front should lift to the north by morning, with warmer
and more humid conditions for wed, and high temps reaching more
seasonable values in the lower and mid 70s. Surface-based
instability from nyc metro NW ahead of an advancing cold front
should help fuel scattered tstms in the afternoon, some of
which could be strong as MLCAPE increases to near 1000 j kg and
deep layer wsw flow aloft increases to 40 kt in the mid levels.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Unsettled pattern for much of the long term as the area is
dominated by troughiness and a cut off low.

Cold front Wednesday night pushes offshore allowing weak high
pressure for Thursday to build into the area, providing a dry
day.

A frontal system then approaches from the west on Friday, with a
warm front lifting well north of the region by late morning into
the early afternoon. The associated cold front moves through
late Friday night into early Saturday morning. This cold front
will remain to our south through the beginning of next week.

Disturbances will ride along the front during this time frame.

There is considerable uncertainty with where the frontal
boundary will be and thus the disturbances that ride along it.

The 00z GFS keeps the front well south of the area, allowing
high pressure to build in. However, there are inconsistencies
from run to run with this model. The 00z ECMWF and the 00z
canadian develop a cutoff low in the upper levels just to our
west, over the western great lakes on Sunday night, which slowly
moves east into the beginning of next week. This seems more
plausible given the recent pattern being so blocky, and will
lean more toward the ECMWF with the more unsettled pattern.

Therefore, will have at least slight chance pop from Friday
through the beginning of next week.

Elevated instability could allow for some thunderstorms early
Thursday night, then Friday into Saturday. Outside of these
times, any elevated instability looks too low for the
development of thunderstorms. This is supported by lifted
indices in the models.

As for temperatures, near normal for Thursday, slightly above
normal for Friday as the warm front lifts north and warm
advection brings in a warmer, more humid air mass, with dew
points in the upper 50s lower 60s. A cooling trend expected
thereafter, with temperatures in the upper 60s by Monday thanks
to clouds and rain.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure continues to nose in from southeastern canada into
tonight as low pressure slowly passes to the south, and a
frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west.

Becoming ifr throughout early this morning. Conditions could
improve to MVFR at most areas this afternoon, then ifr
conditions return this evening (possibly lifr). Do expect some
variability between ifr and MVFR early this morning and again
this afternoon.

Light and variable winds early this morning, become se-sse by
mid morning at 6 to around 10 kt. Light and variable winds
return this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 1 mi48 min SSE 6 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 2 mi48 min 55°F 61°F1020.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 6 mi48 min SE 9.9 G 11 55°F 1021 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 9 mi48 min 55°F 60°F1020.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 60°F1019.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 25 mi48 min S 7 G 8 54°F 59°F1020.4 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 29 mi33 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 52°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi63 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 53°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 47 mi48 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 56°F 66°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ4 mi27 minSE 55.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist55°F53°F93%1020.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY14 mi27 minVar 310.00 miOvercast55°F53°F93%1020.4 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ16 mi27 minS 37.00 miLight Drizzle55°F53°F93%1020.1 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ16 mi43 minN 07.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1020.3 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ17 mi25 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist56°F53°F90%1020.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY18 mi27 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1020.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi27 minSE 610.00 miOvercast55°F54°F96%1021 hPa

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E86E6E4E5E7E5E5E4SE44SE7SE5SE4SE5SE6S5SE5S6S7SE6SE7SE5
1 day agoNE3E3E53E6SE7E10SE9
G15
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2 days agoSW4CalmCalmNW8NW5NW6E7E7W106W6SW7W8W7W5E7E7E7CalmE4E3E3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Ivory, Howland Hook, New York
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Port Ivory
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Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:29 AM EDT     6.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.26.25.54.12.71.30.2-0.4-0.112.43.84.95.55.34.43.2210.40.51.42.84.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:43 AM EDT     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:09 PM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.11.11.81.71.30.80.2-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.30.71.61.71.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.