Sunday, June24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pierce, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday June 24, 2018 10:17 AM MDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 3:19AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pierce, CO
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location: 40.66, -104.8     debug

Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 241549
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
949 am mdt Sun jun 24 2018

Issued at 949 am mdt Sun jun 24 2018
secondary shortwave and cold front are dropping into northern
colorado, with a line of thunderstorms forming around cheyenne and
low clouds and temperatures in the low to mid 50s behind the
front. This feature will drop southeast across our area this
afternoon. There is a pocket of warmer drier air in the mid levels
ahead of this that is capping the airmass, but the pocket of
cooler air aloft combined with lift from the front and jet will
allow for storms in that zone. Severe threat is probably limited
to the air that is getting warmed by the Sun and then lifted by
the front jet combo. This will be a narrow zone where it will be
warm enough initially--probably from castle rock toward akron in
the early to mid afternoon is the best bet. Capes there could be
1000-1500 j kg. Marginal hail is the main threat, though with as
much wind as we have aloft there is some wind threat as well. With
earlier convection, and behind this line, there will be less
instability so there could still be a few hours of trailing
showers storms but much less of a severe threat.

I've left today's highs alone, but it may be too warm across the
north. Or more likely, areas along and north of i-76 may see
midday highs and then be in rain-cooled air with temperatures back
in the low to mid 60s in the afternoon.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 259 am mdt Sun jun 24 2018
severe storms have finally exited the CWA early this morning,
however, some weaker activity remains across far ERN areas.

Meanwhile showers were continuing across portions of the NRN mtns
and across NRN areas of the front range in association with an upper
level jet.

Overall the main upper level low over cntrl wy will move into WRN ne
by this evening. A disturbance will move across the area by midday
along with some mid level ascent. Thus should see shower and tstm
activity increase by late morning over the higher terrain and then
move southeast across the plains this aftn.

Biggest question at this time is how stg activity will be across the
plains as hi res data is giving differing solutions. If temps reach
the lower to mid 70s, MLCAPE values would be in the 1000-1500 j kg
range. Thus there is some potential for a few svr storms, however,
overall confidence of coverage is low at this time.

By tonight as the disturbance exits the area by early evening shower
and TSTM activity should end before 03z.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 259 am mdt Sun jun 24 2018
Monday will be the start of a transition to warm and dry across the
region. A building upper ridge will form over the great basin
increasing subsidence and keeping passing troughs to the north of
co. The low pressure center that will bring rain to the region
Sunday will transition to the NE by Monday morning with zonal flow
becoming dominant by late Monday into early Tuesday. QPF fields
remain dry through Tuesday with temperatures starting their gradual
climb into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday afternoon.

Warm temperatures will continue through mid week with mid to upper
90s into Friday. Thursday could get close to a record with models
projecting close to 100 degrees over the plains. Models show a
weak feature embedded in the zonal flow aloft that bring enough
forcing for some isolated storms over the higher terrain Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Conditions will be fairly dry in the low
levels but will maintain slight chance pops for Wednesday
afternoon over the mountains. By Thursday upper level flow
gradually turns SW ahead of the next approaching trough. This
should be enough energy to displace the entrenched ridge to the
east and increase storm chances over the weekend. Ahead of the
moisture however, with continued mostly dry and above average
temperatures, fire weather concerns will increase. Already dry
areas that have not received measurable rain over the last week
will be susceptible to easy fire growth and rapid spread
conditions if winds increase slightly. This will be something to
monitor and issue highlights as necessary.

By the weekend the models differ slightly on the depth of the
upper trough pushing into the great basin. The influence of the
upper jet combined with forcing from the trough will increase
chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

Temperatures will adjust down as well as a cooler airmass moves in
with highs in the 80s on the plains.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 949 am mdt Sun jun 24 2018
vfr conditions will prevail through tonight, but there will be
thunderstorms in the denver area between 19z and 23z with
localized MVFR ceilings visibilities. Winds will become north with
gusts as high as 30 knots possible for a couple of hours this
afternoon, then the winds will diminish. Small hail is possible
with the strongest storms.

Bou watches warnings advisories

Update... Gimmestad
short term... Rpk
long term... Bowen
aviation... Gimmestad

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Greeley, Greeley-Weld County Airport, CO18 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair68°F48°F49%1014.3 hPa
Fort Collins/Loveland - Northern Colorado Regional Airport, CO18 mi81 minESE 410.00 miOvercast64°F52°F65%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from FNL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS9SE7SE8SE7
1 day agoS9S15SE5N12E8E14E16SE9E5E7E8NE10E11SE3W6W3W4W3NE4NE4CalmN4CalmS5
2 days agoS73SE86--E8CalmSE6E5S5SE12SE11NW4CalmSE5E5NE84NE8N5S11S10W6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cheyenne, WY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.