Friday, November16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Nunn, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:42PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:10 PM MST (21:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nunn, CO
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location: 40.66, -104.88     debug

Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 161835
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
1135 am mst Fri nov 16 2018

Issued at 1130 am mst Fri nov 16 2018
most notable change to the forecast centers on the winter weather
advisory for snow in the high country and for light snow and
freezing drizzle in the foothills and plains. Cold front still
forecast to slide south through northeast colorado this evening,
with passage in the denver area around 03z. Stratiform precip will
follow its passage by a few hours, with light snow and freezing
drizzle developing first up along the colorado wyoming border
around midnight. Should then see this precip spreading southward
over and along the front range, accompanied by some fog. Heavier
banded precip should remain confined to wyoming during the
overnight hours. Model cross sections indicate a gradual deepening
in the easterly upslope flow east of the mtns late tonight
through Saturday morning. With the temps within the sfc-750 mb
layer over the plains in the 0c to minus 10c, and the overlying
layer still unsaturated, plains precip will principally be
freezing drizzle late tonight through mid-morning Saturday, later
in the day, the sfc-500mb layer saturates with the tail end of the
weakening jet passing overhead. This will revert the freezing
drizzle snow mix to all snow, albeit light. Snow accumulations on
the plains should be light, with 1-3 inches near the foothills and
generally less than an inch farther east by 00z sun. Snow amounts
in the high country anywhere from 3-6 inches in the front range
foothills, and from 4-8 inches in the mtns-greater totals in the
northern mtns by 00z sun.

Ice glazed road surfaces will most likely be the greatest hazard
on the plains with air temperatures expected to remain below
freezing from late tonight after frontal passage through all day
Saturday. Winter driving conditions also a big concern in the
high country on Saturday.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 509 am mst Fri nov 16 2018
only minor changes needed to the forecast as a trough sags south
into colorado tonight. We increased the cloud cover and winds a
little today. Mountain wave clouds already starting to form with
thin cirrus that should thicken as the day GOES on. The cloud
shield associated with the southward progressing trough should not
take hold until this evening.

Main concerns for tonight are the timing of the southward push of
low level saturated air and the amount of precipitation. Model
soundings show a low stratus layer that deepens steadily through
Saturday morning, which looks reasonable given observations in
montana and north dakota. There should be enough upslope and weak
synoptic scale lift to produce some freezing drizzle in the
shallow moisture. Areas near the wyoming border will have deeper
clouds earlier, so we'll go for a mix of snow and freezing drizzle
there, with mainly freezing drizzle around denver for the early
morning hours. Amounts shouldn't be much with the possible
exception of the foothills, but it also doesn't take much to cause
problems. The timing among the models is withing a few hours, and
the consensus is a little faster than what we were showing in the
previous forecast, with the cold air and moisture into denver
before 12z. Given that it's almost 24 hours away and there is
uncertainly about the amount of freezing drizzle, we'll hold off
on an advisory at this time.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 400 am mst Fri nov 16 2018
models have a more east-to-west oriented upper trough to move
south into and across the CWA Saturday into Sunday morning. There
is weak upward synoptic scale energy progged for the forecast area
Saturday through about 06z Saturday night. Subsidence is in place
after that into Sunday evening. East-northeasterly upslope low
level winds are progged Saturday through about 06z Saturday night.

Weak drainage winds should kick in before dawn on Sunday morning.

Sunday's low level winds look to be weak downsloping with near
normal drainage patterns Sunday night. Moisture is pretty deep
through the day Saturday into Saturday evening. It decreases
significantly from northwest to southeast late Saturday night and
Sunday morning. Models show it to be quite dry the rest of Sunday
and Sunday night. The QPF fields show pretty meager measurable
precipitation with the system for the cwa. The highest amounts
look to be north of i-70 over the mountains east of the divide and
the foothills. Model soundings still indicate a freezing drizzle
profile from 12z to 18z Saturday. After that is moistens up aloft,
at least enough for snow to to be falling into the lower layers.

Will leave some mention of freezing precipitation in for Saturday
morning. No highlights at this time. For temperatures, Saturday's
highs are 12-18 c colder than today's highs. Sunday's readings are
3-7 c warmer than Saturday's. For the later days, Monday through
Thursday, there is upper ridging in place much of the time. By
later on Thursday the ECMWF has a weak upper trough; but the gfs
does not. Either way, there is little moisture progged through the
4 day period on all the medium range models. Temperatures should
be around or a tad above seasonal normals.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 1130 am mst Fri nov 16 2018
vfr today with thickening high altitude mtn wave cloud over and
along the front range. West winds at 10-20 knots at denver area
airports this afternoon. Will then see winds trend northerly
by early this evening, then shift northeast at 12-22kt around
mid-evening with a cold front backing in from the northeast.

Will likely see ifr conditions develop late tonight with low cigs,
light freezing drizzle and patchy fog after 09z. Fog and freezing
drizzle with a chance of light snow between 12z-20z, then change
over to all snow after 20z, with light ice and snow accumulation
likely by 00z sun.

Bou watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 3 am Saturday to midnight mst
Saturday night for coz035-036-038>046-048-049.

Winter weather advisory from 8 am Saturday to midnight mst
Saturday night for coz031-033.

Update... Baker
short term... Gimmestad
long term... Rjk
aviation... Gimmestad

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Collins/Loveland - Northern Colorado Regional Airport, CO16 mi15 minNNW 310.00 miFair51°F30°F45%1011.5 hPa
Greeley, Greeley-Weld County Airport, CO21 mi15 minSW 710.00 miFair54°F27°F35%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from FNL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS9S7S8S7SW5NE6NE7N6N5N6N7N3N4W3S7SW3S3N5N3--SW3S3SE5N3
1 day agoSW9S7S4CalmW4Calm4S3S454CalmE4N4CalmNE3SW5SW3S4S7S10S8S8S10
2 days agoS7S6S6SW5S43CalmNW3CalmSE5SE4CalmS4S5S6S4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm4S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cheyenne, WY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.