Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nunn, CO
May 5, 2024 6:17 PM MDT (00:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM Moonset 5:24 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KBOU 052111 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 311 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very active weather pattern through the next couple days, with Winter Weather, Fire Weather, and High Wind highlights in effect
- Snow and blowing snow develops across the high country late tonight and continues through Tuesday. Travel impacts likely, especially across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds developing tonight and continue through at least Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected across the higher Foothills.
- Cool and unsettled weather along with much lighter winds Thursday through Saturday.
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A busy, mostly windy, short term forecast across our CWA A potent trough axis is expected to swing across the region over the next 36 hours, leading to quite a few different hazards across the state.
GOES water vapor satellite and RAP mesoanalysis show the center of the upper trough near northern Nevada this afternoon... and this will quickly become negatively tilted as it ejects north of the forecast area into the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, broad but strong south/southwesterly flow has developed, and widespread gusty winds have developed across most of the lower elevations, except for a sliver of the western metro/I-25 corridor where the deeper mixing has yet to kick in. Today's wind is just a preview of the next few days, while the warmer temperatures will be a passing memory by tomorrow.
Later tonight, mountain snow is expected to develop as the flow aloft turns more westerly and better moisture advects into the high country. Guidance has gradually become a bit more bullish on both the snow and wind potential, and we've expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to the I-70 and northern mountain corridors where a few inches of wind blown snow looks likely tonight into tomorrow. There's some uncertainty with regards to impacts given the current warm temperatures and the early May sun angle, but there will likely be a period of difficult travel across the mountain passes during the peak snowfall rates late tonight/early Monday AM.
Monday morning will also feature an increase in winds as a bora event develops. Models show good cold air advection/pressure rises behind the passing trough axis with mid-level/ridgetop flow near 50kt. Winds will quickly increase across the foothills and adjacent plains early in the day and continue through at least the evening hours. There is still some question as to the spatial extent and duration of the strongest winds, with the HRRR notably stronger across the lower foothills and the typical very windy spots near Boulder/Highway 93. Machine-learning guidance from CSU is also split close to 50/50 on if we see higher wind gusts this far east (though their criteria is slightly different than ours).
Have opted for a High Wind Warning in the foothills and will message the potential for stronger gusts in the immediately adjacent plains. Further east, wind gusts will still be fairly strong (30-50 mph) but not quite at the threshold for any highlights.
Tomorrow will also be cooler than the past couple of days, with high temperatures likely remaining in the upper 50s to perhaps the low 60s across the plains. Still, the airmass is dry enough south of I-70 for some localized critical fire weather concerns... see the fire section below for more details.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday night through Tuesday evening, a large upper level storm system will be centered over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains States with a strong westerly flow aloft over Central Colorado. Favorable orographic flow combined with decent QG lift and occasional upper level disturbances should result in periods of snow across the mountains. The exception may be early Tuesday morning when moisture and QG lift may be minimized. Overall, the snow should be generally light due to a lack of cold air advection.
However, with a 115KT+ upper jet over the southern sections of the CWA, can't rule out some localized heavier bands. This pattern will also bring breezy to windy conditions to the high country with areas of blowing snow possible, especially over mountain passes. The strongest winds are expected across the Front Range Mountains/foothills and over the Cheyenne Ridge Monday night with gusts up to 75 mph possible over wind-prone areas.
Further east across the plains it will be mostly dry, cool and windy. The winds should be strongest along and near the foothills Monday night with gusts to 55 mph and most widespread Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 45 mph. The gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and dry fuels may lead to fire weather concerns across Southern Lincoln County Tuesday afternoon and evening. For more details, see the fire weather discussion below.
On Wednesday, the mid an upper level flow over Colorado decreases as the strong upper low over the Northern Great Plains weakens and shifts east into the Upper Midwest. A broad upper trough will still remain over the Western U.S. with lighter winds across the CWA and scattered (30-50%) snow showers possible over the Northern Mountains. However, breezy conditions across much of the forecast area are still expected to continue.
Wednesday night and Thursday, the large elongated upper trough that covers much of the Western and Central U.S. splits as a closed upper low develops over the Intermountain west due to energy rotating around the back side of the trough.
The weak upper low is progged to track across the Southern and Central Rockies Thursday through Saturday. In addition, occasional cold fronts associated with the Central Plains trough are progged to move across Northeastern Colorado as well. The combination of upslope flow and increased moisture behind the fronts and some lift associated with the weak upper low should result in cool and unsettled weather during this period. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Sunday as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Gusty winds will be the main impacts in the TAF forecast through Monday afternoon. At DEN/APA, southerly winds have already mixed down with a few gusts of 20-25kt already noted. Further northwest (BJC), light/variable winds continue, with a well- defined boundary between mixed/stable air stretching from downtown Denver to the NW side of the field at the moment.
Winds should continue to increase through the day today, and also spread into BJC. As the stronger flow aloft reaches the area later this afternoon, we should see a few gusts >30-35kt.
Wind forecast gets much more challenging tonight into tomorrow as a bora event develops. Winds should slowly turn from south to west tomorrow morning, with westerly flow continuing through the rest of the day. There may be one or two periods of enhanced flow Monday AM and again sometime later Monday afternoon, but those timing details are difficult to determine at this point.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across southern Lincoln county on Monday as dry and very windy conditions develop.
Relative humidity values should fall to 10-15 percent with wind gusts of 45-55 mph at times. Overnight humidity recovery will also struggle to reach 50%... and we may need to continue to extend that into Tuesday/Wednesday.
Gusty winds and lower humidity will be over the southern sections of the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is still some question as to how dry the fuels are due to decent precip in the latter half of April. The only area that didn't receive decent precip was over portions of southern Lincoln county. Thus that would be an area to watch for critical fire conditions in the afternoon and early evening hours.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ031-033-034.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ035-036.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ247.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 311 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very active weather pattern through the next couple days, with Winter Weather, Fire Weather, and High Wind highlights in effect
- Snow and blowing snow develops across the high country late tonight and continues through Tuesday. Travel impacts likely, especially across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds developing tonight and continue through at least Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected across the higher Foothills.
- Cool and unsettled weather along with much lighter winds Thursday through Saturday.
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A busy, mostly windy, short term forecast across our CWA A potent trough axis is expected to swing across the region over the next 36 hours, leading to quite a few different hazards across the state.
GOES water vapor satellite and RAP mesoanalysis show the center of the upper trough near northern Nevada this afternoon... and this will quickly become negatively tilted as it ejects north of the forecast area into the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, broad but strong south/southwesterly flow has developed, and widespread gusty winds have developed across most of the lower elevations, except for a sliver of the western metro/I-25 corridor where the deeper mixing has yet to kick in. Today's wind is just a preview of the next few days, while the warmer temperatures will be a passing memory by tomorrow.
Later tonight, mountain snow is expected to develop as the flow aloft turns more westerly and better moisture advects into the high country. Guidance has gradually become a bit more bullish on both the snow and wind potential, and we've expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to the I-70 and northern mountain corridors where a few inches of wind blown snow looks likely tonight into tomorrow. There's some uncertainty with regards to impacts given the current warm temperatures and the early May sun angle, but there will likely be a period of difficult travel across the mountain passes during the peak snowfall rates late tonight/early Monday AM.
Monday morning will also feature an increase in winds as a bora event develops. Models show good cold air advection/pressure rises behind the passing trough axis with mid-level/ridgetop flow near 50kt. Winds will quickly increase across the foothills and adjacent plains early in the day and continue through at least the evening hours. There is still some question as to the spatial extent and duration of the strongest winds, with the HRRR notably stronger across the lower foothills and the typical very windy spots near Boulder/Highway 93. Machine-learning guidance from CSU is also split close to 50/50 on if we see higher wind gusts this far east (though their criteria is slightly different than ours).
Have opted for a High Wind Warning in the foothills and will message the potential for stronger gusts in the immediately adjacent plains. Further east, wind gusts will still be fairly strong (30-50 mph) but not quite at the threshold for any highlights.
Tomorrow will also be cooler than the past couple of days, with high temperatures likely remaining in the upper 50s to perhaps the low 60s across the plains. Still, the airmass is dry enough south of I-70 for some localized critical fire weather concerns... see the fire section below for more details.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday night through Tuesday evening, a large upper level storm system will be centered over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains States with a strong westerly flow aloft over Central Colorado. Favorable orographic flow combined with decent QG lift and occasional upper level disturbances should result in periods of snow across the mountains. The exception may be early Tuesday morning when moisture and QG lift may be minimized. Overall, the snow should be generally light due to a lack of cold air advection.
However, with a 115KT+ upper jet over the southern sections of the CWA, can't rule out some localized heavier bands. This pattern will also bring breezy to windy conditions to the high country with areas of blowing snow possible, especially over mountain passes. The strongest winds are expected across the Front Range Mountains/foothills and over the Cheyenne Ridge Monday night with gusts up to 75 mph possible over wind-prone areas.
Further east across the plains it will be mostly dry, cool and windy. The winds should be strongest along and near the foothills Monday night with gusts to 55 mph and most widespread Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 45 mph. The gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and dry fuels may lead to fire weather concerns across Southern Lincoln County Tuesday afternoon and evening. For more details, see the fire weather discussion below.
On Wednesday, the mid an upper level flow over Colorado decreases as the strong upper low over the Northern Great Plains weakens and shifts east into the Upper Midwest. A broad upper trough will still remain over the Western U.S. with lighter winds across the CWA and scattered (30-50%) snow showers possible over the Northern Mountains. However, breezy conditions across much of the forecast area are still expected to continue.
Wednesday night and Thursday, the large elongated upper trough that covers much of the Western and Central U.S. splits as a closed upper low develops over the Intermountain west due to energy rotating around the back side of the trough.
The weak upper low is progged to track across the Southern and Central Rockies Thursday through Saturday. In addition, occasional cold fronts associated with the Central Plains trough are progged to move across Northeastern Colorado as well. The combination of upslope flow and increased moisture behind the fronts and some lift associated with the weak upper low should result in cool and unsettled weather during this period. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Sunday as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Gusty winds will be the main impacts in the TAF forecast through Monday afternoon. At DEN/APA, southerly winds have already mixed down with a few gusts of 20-25kt already noted. Further northwest (BJC), light/variable winds continue, with a well- defined boundary between mixed/stable air stretching from downtown Denver to the NW side of the field at the moment.
Winds should continue to increase through the day today, and also spread into BJC. As the stronger flow aloft reaches the area later this afternoon, we should see a few gusts >30-35kt.
Wind forecast gets much more challenging tonight into tomorrow as a bora event develops. Winds should slowly turn from south to west tomorrow morning, with westerly flow continuing through the rest of the day. There may be one or two periods of enhanced flow Monday AM and again sometime later Monday afternoon, but those timing details are difficult to determine at this point.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across southern Lincoln county on Monday as dry and very windy conditions develop.
Relative humidity values should fall to 10-15 percent with wind gusts of 45-55 mph at times. Overnight humidity recovery will also struggle to reach 50%... and we may need to continue to extend that into Tuesday/Wednesday.
Gusty winds and lower humidity will be over the southern sections of the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is still some question as to how dry the fuels are due to decent precip in the latter half of April. The only area that didn't receive decent precip was over portions of southern Lincoln county. Thus that would be an area to watch for critical fire conditions in the afternoon and early evening hours.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ031-033-034.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ035-036.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ247.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFNL NORTHERN COLORADO RGNL,CO | 16 sm | 21 min | S 23G28 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 36°F | 24% | 29.50 | |
| KGXY GREELEYWELD COUNTY,CO | 20 sm | 21 min | SSE 29G34 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 34°F | 20% | 29.50 |
Cheyenne, WY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE