Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:56PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:22 AM EST (05:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:08AMMoonset 7:33PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 926 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon on ice free waters.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less on ice free waters. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds around 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft on ice free waters. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ300 926 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves into the canadian maritimes tonight. High pressure builds in through Thursday. The local area will be between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south on Friday, both of which depart to the east over the weekend. A warm front will slowly lift to the north on Monday, then a cold front will pass through on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180232
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
932 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moves into the canadian maritimes tonight. High
pressure builds in through Thursday. The local area will be
between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south
on Friday, both of which depart to the east over the weekend. A
warm front will slowly lift to the north on Monday, then a cold
front will pass through on Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Hazardous travel overnight into early Thursday morning due to
black ice formation on untreated surfaces.

Becoming clr overnight as the low pulls away to the northeast.

The fcst remains on track.

Cold temperatures will return for tonight with lows falling into the
teens for the outlying areas, while temperatures in and around new
york city will be around 20 degrees.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
A closed low remains SE of long island on Thursday as ridging builds
into the area. Mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 30s, about
5 degrees below normal. W-nw winds 10-15 kt, with the strongest
winds along the coast.

Shortwave trough passes through dry Thursday night. Lows drop
down into the teens to low 20s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Nwp is in relatively good agreement with the overall h5 pattern
across north america through the period. There are some differences
in timing and strength with a fairly strong system moving through
the great lakes and northeast during the first half of next week,
which will hopefully be worked out over the next few days.

A split flow will reside over the CONUS at the start of the long
term. After a shortwave trough passes through new england early
fri morning, the h5 flow will flatten in response to another
northern stream trough diving across central and eastern canada.

Zonal flow will generally prevail through the weekend, with an
amplifying ridge developing Sun night Mon as an upper level
trough cuts off in the rockies and continues into the central
plains. This system will continue NE through the great lakes and
northeast Tue night into wed.

At the sfc, dry weather will dominate through the weekend
although a brisk westerly flow will develop on Sat due to a
tightening pressure gradient between low pres to the north and
high pres to the south. A leading warm front will approach our
area late Sun night into mon, and its progress may be delayed by
high pressure to the ne. There could be some spotty wintry
precip inland late Sun night into Mon morning, otherwise light
rain into Mon evening. Followed slower model trend with a cold
front trailing from the great lakes low, with it moving through
on tue. We could be setting up for a moderate to locally heavy
rain event during this time as the low taps atlantic moisture
via a strengthening llj, with both it and difluent flow aloft
likely providing enhanced lift, and a possible triple point low
passing nearby and concentrating low level convergence.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds to the south of the region tonight through
Thursday night.

Lingering MVFR this evening, will give way toVFR overnight and
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Nw winds with gusts to around 20 kt for nyc nj terminals through
the evening. Occasional gusts elsewhere. Winds and gusts should
subside late tonight, before strengthening again with gusts 20
to 25 kt after sunrise on Thursday. Winds will likely waver
between 300 and 330 magnetic during the day, likely averaging
just left of 310 magnetic for the morning push and then to the
right for the aft eve push. Winds and gusts subside Thursday
evening.

Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday
Thursday night Vfr.

Friday Vfr. W-sw winds g20kt possible.

Saturday-Sunday Vfr.

Monday MVFR or lower possible in -shra, mainly late.

Marine
Pressure gradient over the waters will allow winds and seas to
remain at SCA levels. Winds on the ocean waters will have gusts up
to 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet, therefore have kept SCA through 6 pm
Thursday.

There is a possibility that the SCA will have to be extended for the
far eastern waters for both winds and seas into Thursday night,
but confidence is too low at this time.

Marginal SCA conds are possible on the ocean waters fri. SCA conds
are also likely Sat into Sat evening on the ocean as a moderate w
flow develops between low pressure passing well to the north and
high pressure building to the south. Tranquil conds on all waters
then expected through Sun night.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through at least
the upcoming weekend.

A frontal system passing through Mon night into Tue has potential to
bring over an inch of rain during that time. Mainly nuisance
urban poor drainage impacts expected attm.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... CB 24
near term... 12 jc
short term... Cb
long term... 24
aviation... Nv
marine... CB 24
hydrology... CB 24
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi52 min N 12 G 14 23°F 32°F1022.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi92 min NW 18 G 21 30°F 42°F4 ft1020.5 hPa (-0.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi92 min NW 18 G 21 27°F 41°F4 ft1020.7 hPa (+0.0)19°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi58 min NNW 7 G 12 22°F 35°F1020.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi52 min 23°F 34°F1022.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi52 min NNW 14 G 20 23°F 33°F1022.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi52 min NNW 13 G 18 22°F 1022.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi52 min 23°F 33°F1022.3 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi52 min NW 9.9 G 14
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi142 min NNW 14 G 18 29°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi52 min N 13 G 16 23°F 35°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi29 minNNW 910.00 miFair25°F19°F78%1020.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi26 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast25°F17°F72%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3N4N5N6N5NE4NE3CalmNW4NW7NW7NW6NW9NW8NW7NW8NW7NW13NW7NW6NW9NW7NW9
1 day agoCalmCalmN4N3CalmN3N6N4E5SE7SE6SE6SE4SE5SE7SE5E5CalmNE4N5NE3E3E3E6
2 days agoN10NE11NE8NE13NE11NE9NE7NE8NE11NE9NE10N13NE14NE10NE13NE12NE11NE8NE8NE5NE3NE3NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Oak Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:19 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:55 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:13 PM EST     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.30.20.1000.20.40.60.70.70.70.60.40.20.1-0-000.20.40.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:30 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:49 AM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:13 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.50.30.1000.30.711.21.31.210.70.40.2-0-0.100.30.711.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.