Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:45PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:19 PM EDT (00:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:53AMMoonset 10:11PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 709 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am edt Tuesday...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Widespread fog early this evening, then widespread dense fog late this evening and overnight. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm in the morning.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 709 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pres remains centered N of the waters through Tue. A cold front moves through the region Wed night, followed by brief high pres building in from the w. Another surface low and attendant cold front pass through Fri night, followed by strong canadian high pres settling in across the area through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252325
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
725 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through
Tuesday. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night,
followed by brief high pressure building in from the west
through late week. Another surface low and attendant cold front
pass through Friday night, followed by strong canadian high
pressure settling in across the area through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A 1019 high was centered from vt to the N atlc. This sfc ridge
will remain in place N of the fcst area overnight.

At the same time, stratus and fog was expanding and moving
slowly westward in a light flow. At this time do not expect that
the fog will become dense on the land, however, patchy dense fog
will be possible. Otherwise, dry weather and clear skies as
aftn CU will dissipate this eve.

A blend of guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for
temps.

A high risk for rip currents and a high surf advy remain in
effect thru Tue ngt. Nassau and nyc remain out of the high surf
advy ATTM with waves progged to avg blw 7 ft. This would change,
particularly for nassau county, if the swell comes in any
higher than what is currently modeled.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Maria will slowly track nwd and the sfc high will remain in place
thru the period. This will result in a slight increase in the wind.

Morning fog and stratus is expected to burn off, at least across the
wrn 2 3 of the cwa. Time heights show moisture is shallow, but the
fog and stratus are still out there today, so it is entirely
possible it lasts thru most if not all of the day for parts of ern
ct and li. High clouds will also increase from the sw, so sunshine
where there is not the low stuff will be somewhat filtered. With the
marine influence, the raw model data was blended in for high temps
yielding numbers several degrees blw guidance.

For the overnight, it is still uncertain how much fog will develop
with winds likely staying abv 5 kt or so. Some of the modeling is
producing measurable pcpn across portions of the area. With a lack
of lift across the area, the fcst included patchy fog and dz for the
majority of the area, with more of a mist than thick fog expected
attm. Temps were a blend of the guidance and raw model data.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
With persistent onshore flow, Wednesday morning may initially have
fog and or stratus and perhaps some light drizzle closer to the
coast as moisture remains beneath the low-level inversion.

Conditions will improve through the day with a final stretch of well
above normal temperatures before the cold front moves through from
northwest to southeast in the evening to overnight. Overall the
front is expected to be moisture starved, with very little, if any
precipitation with its passage. Although temperatures on Thursday
will be a few degrees above normal in gusty northwest flow, dew
points will gradually lower through the day as high pressure builds
in, leading to more comfortable conditions. Thereafter, temperatures
will fall to near or slightly below seasonal values as a strong
canadian high builds in from the northwest. Conditions will mainly
be dry, with the exception of Friday night as a weak low passes
through the area.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period.

Vfr conditions late this afternoon, but watching stratus fog bank
off the coast. Stratus and fog will likely make a push across the
terminals from the east this evening and overnight. Stratus and fog
is expected to be more widespread, however timing is uncertain and
could be an hour or two off from current forecast. These subVFR
conditions linger into Tuesday morning, then improve as the
afternoon hours approach.

Light E SE winds 5-10 kt through the remainder of the afternoon
become light variable again tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi49 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 68°F 74°F68°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi34 min S 3.9 G 7.8 75°F 65°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi49 min SSW 8.9 G 11 74°F 73°F1017.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi89 min ESE 12 G 14 67°F 69°F5 ft1016.9 hPa (+0.0)53°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi89 min SE 12 G 14 70°F 72°F4 ft1016.4 hPa (+0.6)67°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi55 min E 4.1 G 6 75°F 72°F1016.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi49 min 74°F 73°F1017.8 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi49 min SSE 7 G 8.9 71°F 76°F1018 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi49 min SSE 18 G 20 72°F 1017.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi49 min 73°F 73°F1016.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi79 min E 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 73°F
MHRN6 47 mi49 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi49 min SE 5.1 G 6 74°F 74°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi26 minSSE 810.00 miFair70°F66°F87%1017.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi23 minSSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F66°F93%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmNE4S6SE5S8SE8S6SE7SE6S8
1 day agoN3N4E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN8N9N5NE6NE7NE6NE4NE6S7S5S6S5SW5
2 days agoN11N14N11N14
G21
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N11N10N12N9N7N8N6N13
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N13N11N11N8N10NW11N9N6N6N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Beach, Great South Bay, New York
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Oak Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:34 PM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.20.40.50.70.70.70.70.50.40.30.20.10.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:36 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.11.21.110.80.50.30.20.20.30.60.91.11.31.31.210.70.50.30.20.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.