Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 12:05 AM   Moonset 8:41 AM

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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 331 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated tstms until early morning. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Tue night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 11 seconds and se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 331 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front lifts north and east through the waters today, followed by a weak trough tonight. The boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a frontal wave moves out of the ohio valley Tuesday, passing to the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by another frontal system over the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 282014 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 414 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front lifts north and east through the region today, followed by a weak trough tonight. The boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a frontal wave moves out of the Ohio Valley Tuesday, passing to the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by another frontal system over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A warm front continues to slowly progress thru the region today, splitting the region in half as of 20z. This boundary will eventually lift north and east into this evening. Behind the front, temperatures have managed to climb into the 70s with a mild SW.

Conditions remain dry for the moment, but increase once again late today as a weak shortwave rides over ridging in place. This is instigating scattered convection across Upstate NY that CAMs sag south and east into the Lower Hudson Valley into early evening. Soundings and SPC mesoanalysis do indicate a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE north and west of NYC, and can't rule out the possibility of a few thunderstorms before conditions begin to stabilize with loss of heating and marine influence. A few gusty downpours can't be ruled out with any shower either. This activity works south and east, gradually dissipating as it pushed offshore. Appears the bulk of the precip should end everywhere by 6Z or so.

Temperatures tonight will run seasonably mild, with lows in the 50s and low 60s. Patchy fog is possible overnight into early Monday morning, and could be dense in a few locales.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US on Monday, with a surface high sitting off the Southeast coast. The warm front that meandered thru will return as a cold front that attempts to slowly backdoor the region thru the day.

Before the fropa, NW flow that developed behind the surface trough should aid deeper mixing than over the weekend and help lead to summerlike levels of warmth for parts of the area.
Still some uncertainty in the temperature forecast as timing of a back door cold front and lingering cloud cover will be key factors in just how warm the BL can get. Should the front advance a bit quicker, temperatures in and around NYC may be a bit cooler than currently forecast. Blended in some of the latest guidance that indicates a slightly quicker fropa across eastern areas, resulting in cooler highs here. West of the Hudson and away from maritime influence, temperatures should get into the low 80s by lunchtime, likely topping out in the mid 80s before falling back late day. Potential continues for parts of urban NE NJ to get into the upper 80s, or near record heat for late April. See Climate section below for records data.

The back door cold front advances south and west into the evening hours, and conditions should quickly cool back into the 60s everywhere by mid evening. Low clouds likely develops in the easterly flow behind the front, and will need to monitor for fog potential overnight into Tuesday AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
*Key Points*

*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period followed by a slight warmup for the week's end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area during the period.

Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow weakening low pressure over the Ohio Valley to track east along the front, passing to the south and east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best forcing looks to reside north across the Mid Hudson Valley and central New England. Rainfall chances have trended down with this event due to blocking across the western Atlantic. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out Tuesday night. With the low tracking to the south Wednesday, some light rain and/or drizzle could linger during the first half of the day, especially eastern areas. Ridging returns for the second half of the week and the trend here has been more amplified and slower. Thus, the remainder of the week looks to be dry. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the area Saturday into Sunday.

As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. A gradual warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5 to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday and Sunday knocks temps down a bit.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak trough approaches this evening and crosses through overnight. A back door cold front moves through Monday afternoon.

VFR through 22z, then expectation of showers across central PA/NY sinking SE across the terminals this evening. With weak, mainly elevated instability, advecting into western terminals, a low chance of thunder for KSWF, KHPN, KEWR, KTEB during evening push, timing could be as early as 21z for KSWF. Slight chance of thunder for remainder of NYC/NJ metro terminals this eve, but confidence is too low to explicitly put in TAFs at this point. Drying conditions after 06z, with patchy fog possible for outlying terminals.

S/SW winds 7-11kt continue for coastal terminals this afternoon with sea breeze. Winds veering SW and weaken this evening, becoming light W/NW late tonight with trough passage.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of showers this evening may be an hour or so off. Chance of thunder, focused around 23-02z this evening, particularly KHPN/KSWF. S seabreeze of 10 to 15 kt likely for KJFK thru 23z. Low prob for patchy fog for Mon AM push. Otherwise VFR w/ W/NW 5 to 8 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: Patchy early AM MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt AM, shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM shra/tsra.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conds. PM SHRA potential, w/ slight TSRA potential for NW terminals. E/NE winds.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower conds. E/NE winds.

Thursday thru Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through late week under a weak pressure gradient regime.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Amityville
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Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:16 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
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Throg's Neck
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Sun -- 12:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT     Moonset
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Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
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